Equinties - Ebor Festival Day 2

Gm Equinauts

Two nice priced bets landed yesterday at 6’s and 5’s, the first one the easiest winner of the day in GUTSY GIRL for Charlie Fellowes who looks to have a nice girl on his hands.

Yesterday had the potential to have been a big one though. We were so so bullish on MOSTAHDAF in the Juddmonte. That really should have just been a one big bet and done.

Our bullishness for the winner wasn’t so much derived from thinking the winner was the better horse, although he was on the day, our reasoning came from the fact that PADDINGTON had had such an aggressive campaign this season, there’s only so many big performances a young horse can run in such a short space of time.

Let’s look at THAT race…

With just four runners in the race, MOSTAHDAF, for the first time ever, made all under an inspired ride from Frankie Dettori to win the feature race of the day having drifted slightly before the off, with warm favourite PADDINGTON carried out on his shield in third.

The experienced four-year-old gave 9lbs away to the favourite and 4lbs away to the runner-up, NASHWA.

Remember when people doubted if he was truly a 128 after Royal Ascot? They’re not doubting him now.

Post-race, John Gosden floated up the idea of a tilt at the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race he won in 2008 with RAVEN’S PASS (love him as a sire), though they will consider the Irish Champion Stakes as his potential next target.

As for PADDINGTON, when he wasn’t stopping for photos with the fans, Aidan suggested that the new ‘Iron horse’ potentially didn’t have long enough between runs and could be in need of a well-earned break.

But, fair play to York and connections Juddmonte International, it was a brilliant race.

Lets dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 400 stables today, top of the BGP private league comes golfing with BGP Capital - we’ll run the comp until someone wins!

Code QHZ36G to find the BGP league.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

13.50 GROUP 2 LOWTHER STAKES 

A fast race race over 6f for the girls.

RELIEF RALLY by KODIAC is 3 wins out of 4. Her only loss being at Royal Ascot but she had BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND and FLORA OF BERMUDA behind her that day. She then bolted up in the Super Sprint at Newbury. Steps up from 5f to 6f today, she has always hit the line hard so she should be fine.

Aidan O’Brian pitched CHERRY BLOSSOM in to a Listed race on her debut where she was 4th. He clearly thinks a bit of her and she won well nto on her second start and promptly 12 days later she’s shipped over here to run in this Group 2. By NO NAT NEVER, out of a full sister to RAIL LINK, cost €360k as a yearling. Has to be taken seriously.

FLORA OF BERMUDA by DARK ANGEL has always been well thought of by Balding. She won lto on her 4th start where she relished the soft conditions, that was over 5f like her previous starts, stepped up to 6f today. She was drawn on the wrong side at Ascot but finished 1st in her group. She’s an improving type, cost 340k as a breezer, has a good chance.

BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND is a previous Young Blood winner for the newsletter.

She runs for trainer Karl Burke who won the race last year as well as 2019. She was third behind RELIEF RALLY beaten 2 lengths on her last start. That was only her second race so she comes here lightly raced and stepped up to 6f. By TWILIGHT SON she’ll LOVE the quick ground. She cost 360k as a breezer.

STAR OF MYSTERY by KODIAC and a half sister to dual Gr1 winner ALTHIQA and Gr1 winner MYSTERIOUS NIGHT. Ran well on soft ground lto in a Gr2 just being beaten by PERSIAN DREAMER but was pestered the whole way so you could upgrade the performance. Before that she slammed a Listed race in good style, she had INDISPENSABLE behind her that day by 10 lengths (FLORA OF BERMUDA had the same filly 7 lengths behind her lto). Not without a chance.

SYMBOLOGY by HAVANA GREY is a half sister to Gr2 winner EL CABALLO. Trained by Clive Cox, she won well on debut and then 3rd behind SACRED ANGEL beaten 4 lengths. Certainly deserves her spot here and can run well at big odds.

DOROTHY LAWRENCE is by first season sire SOLDIERS CALL and won lto at Ayr, was placed 3rd at Chantilly before that and second in the Marygate S on her second start at York (over 5f). Needs to step up on her current form.

GUNZBURG represents the Paddy Twomey stable, has been second in a Gr2 but has had a couple of lacklustre runs before that. She needs to turn her season around to trouble the top of the market.

Verdict: A sprint for 2yo fillies, this is tough as there are some which are improving hand over fist, some which have solid form, some stepping up in trip for the first time and some which had excuses lto and can bounce back. There are strong messages coming from Ireland for CHERRY BLOSSUM but the Irish form is hard to read. RELIEF RALLY looks really solid at the top of the market, she’s got a few of these covered on form and one of them is BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND. But we think BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND can improve from that as it was only her second start, a step up in trip will suit especially at this track and she comes here a fresher horse than others. Her inexperience is the worry however

15.35 GROUP 1 YORKSHIRE OAKS 

A hot and deep Group 1 on the Knavesmire. This really gets the blood flowing mid week.

3 year olds have won this 7 times in the past 10 years which is positive news for SAVETHELASTDANCE, NOVAKAI, WARM HEART and BLUESTOCKING.

SAVETHELASTDANCE and BLUESTOCKING come here having battled against each other in the Irish Oaks won by the Ballydoyle filly.

BLUESTOCKING has also been beaten by WARM HEART at Newbury and in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, but made amends at the Curragh when they all met.

NOVAKAI would have a bit to find with her age group, however she does have York form in the book as she was second to eventual Oaks Winner SOUL SISTER in the Musidora. That was her first run of the year and ties the whole puzzle together through various form lines.

Let’s stick with age groups. The 4 year olds are headed by AL HUSN who 21 days ago beat NASHWA convincingly in the Nassau Stakes and NASHWA ran a good race in second yesterday. AL HUSN is stepping up in trip, she’s by DUBAWI who offers speed but out of a SEA THE STARS mare who will inject stamina, incidently her second dam is by LINAMIX who is a source of middle distance horses. Her brother by FRANKEL was second in the Melrose at York over 1m6f.

STAY ALERT could easily trouble the protagonists if she brings her form from the Pretty Polly Stakes. However, her form with FREE WIND suggests she’ll need a career best. She travelled to France on the weekend but never ran.

SEA SILK ROAD and POPTRONIC have battled against each other, they could easily hit the frame and wouldn’t put anyone off either of them.

The 5 year olds… ROSSCARBERY and FREE WIND are the older girls in the race. The former has a bit to find but she’ll see out the trip well. FREE WIND’s run in the Middleton at York looks good having beaten ROGUE MILLENIUM that day and that filly has since won the Gr2 Duke Of Cambridge.

Verdict: We fancy a few Varian horses today and we know they can’t all win but on form, how can you not like AL HUSN?

16.10 LISTED SIR HENRY CECIL GALTRES STAKES

The 16.10 at York today is the Listed Galtres Stakes with 13 declared for the £100,000 contest. It’s competitiveness highlighted by the favourite, SEA THEME, being as big as 9/2.

The twice-raced three-year-old by SEA THE STARS is out of the Group 3-winning MAYHEM and looked impressive at Doncaster on soft ground last time out. On pedigree, she’ll adore this fast going and could be an even better horse in receipt of a nine-pound weight-for-age allowance. There are strong whispers for her coming from the Shaggas camp.

MODAARA, despite being a four-year-old, has only hit the track four times for Roger Varian and was an impressive winner at Kempton at the start of the season. She is a full-sister to the former-126-rated BENBATL and despite finishing last of five in the Group 3 Lester Piggott Stakes, she put in a good showing behind the likes of SEA SILK ROAD and POPTRONIC, so she should be underestimated.

The money horse of the contest is ONE EVENING for the Gosdens and Ryan Moore. The form of her last run in the Listed Castle Fillies’ Stakes received a boost on the weekend as CHING SHIH, one place behind her in third, ran a good race behind ARREST in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, and having made up a lot of ground to finish as close to the winner as she did, a more positive ride could see her in the mix.

Representing the Irish, MORACANA is a general 8/1 chance for trainer Sheila Lavery with regular rider Robbie Colgan booked for the ride.

Her last run occurred in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot when staying on into fifth, yet the form of that race would be a worry as the winner, OKITA SOUSHI, was beaten at Listed class on his next start.

One that could hit the frame at a price is BRIGHT DIAMOND for Karl Burke and Clifford Lee. She has good back-end form from her two-year-old season thanks to her third in the Fillies’ Mile before a promising fifth in the Listed Lingfield Oaks on her seasonal reappearance this year. She has disappointed on her next two starts in the Oaks and at Newcastle, but a return to this level should give her a good chance.

Verdict: SEA THEME is the word horse today but the form horse is MODAARA for Varian, one of the several we like from that yard. Both ew prices, we can’t split them.

STATS OF THE DAY

Only one stat today and it’s not as bullish as normal but quite telling none the less.

16.45 LINCOLN LEGACY - only ran Saturday, won very easily, and is turned back out again quicky for Charlie Johnston. Lands 1 in 4 when doing this.

RISK ON

Will play the TOTE FANTASY and the above preview horses plus a little go on:

14.25 ZIGGYS CONDOR

Despite Hannon’s record in this race, and his horse DAPPERLING coming out on top on our stats, we’re opposing. ZIGGYS CONDOR owners won this race last year with a HAVANA GREY and they’re looking to do the exact same again. For what this filly lacks in experience, she gains from her big performance fto and might just prove best.

15.00 AKHU NAJLA

We warned you we liked Varian’s horses today, annoyingly - sh!t or bust. Made a belated seasonal return running creditably and staying on under a soft ride. Same mark today, if he can improve (he needs to) and NOT bounce (big danger) he could run a big race.