Equinties - Ebor Festival Day 3

Gm Equinauts

Even if some of your bets have gone astray, no one can say the racing at York this week hasnt been top drawer.

We landed only one bet yesterday in SEA THEME, albeit at a nice price, which there was strong word for all day (as strong a word as possible in a ultra competitive race!),

but the highlight of yesterday’s action was the Yorkshire Oaks.

Aidan O’Brien found himself in the history books for the seventh time… but it wasn’t with the horse that everyone expected.

WARM HEART defied a pre-race drift to win under James Doyle, repelling a late challenge from the well-backed FREE WIND. Having disappointed in the Irish Oaks on her last attempt, a return to better ground and better riding tactics saw her perform to her best in what was, on the eye, an impressive performance.

Where next? Well, the Breeders’ Cup Fillies & Mares has been floated by trainer Aidan O’Brien, a race he won last year with TUESDAY, as she is a horse who likes good, racing ground compared to her stablemate, SAVETHELASTDANCE, who looks to have the Arc as her target.

Although she was underestimated in the market yesterday, she won’t be next time out because this was a good performance from a very solid filly.

Lets dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 400 stables today, top of the BGP private league comes golfing with BGP Capital - we’ll run the comp until someone wins!

Code QHZ36G to find the BGP league.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

14.25 GROUP 2 LONSDALE CUP STAKES

This isn’t the big race of the day but you can bet your last dollar more eyes will be tuned into this than any other race today…

The race of redemption. Redemption for the field vs Hollie Doyle’s husband and redemption for COLTRANE vs COURAGE MON AMI.

Moving the market is the Frankie factor as COURGE MON AMI tops proceedings at 9/4. Stuck in the ground lto at Goodwood, the going is another reason to write off his last performance. He’s a quick ground horse through and through and showed as such when beating COLTRANE at Royal Ascot in the Gold Cup.

COLTRANE needs no intro but we will anyway; he’s best horse to have graduated from the BGP ranks and we follow him off a cliff. Oisin made a big mistake giving QUICKTHORN so much free rope the last time they met, he absolutely cannot do that again today otherwise it’s game over.

Luckily BROOME is in the race today and he likes to front run as much as QUICKTHORN. Ryan Moore will be trying to hang on to the coat tails of QUICKTHORN if not up sides and that will give Oisin a brilliant opportunity to tow.

The QUICKTHORN, BROOME and COLTRANE chain will make this a furious pace and the York straight will provide the stage for the best stayer to win.

Verdict: COLTRANE has it all to prove today but like another today, we’re staying faithful to our boy. We pray Ryan Moore and BROOME will help tow COLTRANE nearer to the front running QUICKTHORN to take over in the final stages. More an emotional bet for us than financial advice for you, if you fancy another - go with your gut or leave alone as the race should serve as a spectacle enough to not need to bet it. We’ll be booming COLTRANE if he wins though.

15.35 GROUP 1 NUNTHORPE STAKES 

The feature race of the day is the Nunthorpe Stakes and in a field of 16 that will head to post, HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is the 13/8 favourite to retain her title from 12 months ago.

Despite her being an absolute mortgage job lto and possibly the gamble of the season so far, today she isn’t bulletproof. She’s been beaten on four of her last six outings, however, she has been a model for consistency when she has hit the track whether it’s at the Breeders’ Cup or Royal Ascot. Today will be a tough task, but she is a hardy mare and not one to take on lightly.

One horse who has beaten her recently is BRADSELL for Archie Watson at 4/1 who survived a stewards’ enquiry at Royal Ascot to land the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes.

The three-year-old beat the super-mare by one length last time out on his return to five furlongs, and as things stand, there is nothing to suggest he won’t do the same again at York, a track he has won at before.

Much like last year, there is a promising two-year-old in the race to be seriously considered as connections supplemented BIG EVS for the Group 1 contest earlier this week after his big win lto when we backed him.

By first-season sire BLUE POINT, he receives a massive 24 pounds from the colts/geldings older than him (22lbs for 3yo colts) which has him clear best on official ratings, but it is notoriously hard for two-year-olds to win the Nunthorpe. Should he win, it will serve as a HUGE form boost to PUROSANGUE who races tomorrow.

A horse who has received a form boost this week is REGIONAL for Ed Bethell as his five-year-old beat EQUILATERAL by a length at Haydock in May who has since won a valuable handicap on Wednesday. As this horse has matured, he has become a much better proposition for connections, however, this is a much bigger step up in class to what he has ever faced and could just not be good enough.

Verdict: We have had a turbulent relationship with BRADSELL. We gambled him on debut, then backed him at Royal Ascot last year, remained faithful on his come back where he let us down meaning we deserted him at the most recent Royal Ascot…where he said F YOU. We shan’t desert him today. We can’t see why HP will reverse that form. 5’s makes him an ew play. There are whispers for AESOP’S FABLES to have improved and he’s a massive price for a speccy play. Pays 4 places at 33’s or you can buy 6 places for 20’s.

YOUNG BLOOD

15.00 GROUP 2 GIMCRACK STAKES

KYLIAN has ran 5 times now and he is a mightily consistent and talented 2yo. He ran really well two starts back at Sandown and then ran 3rd at Goodwood where the going went against him. Back on a sounder surface and stepped up in trip he could bounce back.

JOHANNES BRAHMS by SIYOUNI o/o a SHAMARDAL mare who was best over a mile to a mile and a half will appreciate the step back up to 6f, he won on debut over the trip and they dropped him back to 5 at Ascot where he was beaten by BIG EVS. Draw a slight concern.

KING’S GAMBLE by KINGMAN, cost 190k as a yearling, he could be the fly in the ointment. Connections clearly like him as he has all the big race entries, owner loves a winner at the track, he’ll love the ground and he’s open to a lot of improvement. He’ll get taken out of his comfort zone in this company and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles that.

HAATEM we know all about having won the Vintage Stakes lto at Goodwood. A consistent type who drops back in trip.

ACTION POINT got his career back on track lto in a Listed race, he needs to build on that to be competitive here.

EMPEROR’S SON is an intriguing runner as he beat KYLIAN on debut but then ran below that form at Ascot. That run being only 18 days after his debut may have come too soon. He’s been given plenty of time since, step up in trip will suit and the trainer clearly likes him as he could have easily picked an easier race for him. Stall 1 isn’t fantastic.

JEHANGEER is a full brother to Gr1 winning sire HELLO YOUMZAIN. He made a pleasing debut behind ARMY ETHOS who went on to be second in the Coventry and then he won his maiden tag in good style. Trainer has won this race 4 times. Interesting.

LAKE FOREST by NO NAY NEVER ran a disappointing race lto behind KINGS GAMBLE, he was carrying a 6lb penalty. He needs a career best today.

POWER MODE 4th in a Gr3 lto and HALA EMARAATY 4th in a listed race lto need to improve a lot for the Alice Haynes stable.

Verdict: This looks a corker of a race. There’s some good consistent horses at Group level and there are some lightly raced improving types. The verdict goes to JEHANGEER at a big price who has good form in the book, a good draw, trainer has a fine record on the race, exceptional pedigree, will love the ground, and looks to be improving.

We actually like another Kevin Ryan horse in MARHABA THE CHAMP for same owners in the 13.50. He was below par last two starts but he’s back at York where he won off 90. Moore in the plate. We’ll play a speccy 103/1 ew double.

STATS OF THE DAY

RISK ON

As we have done for the first two days, we’ll have plays on the above preview horses including the 103/1 ew Kevin Ryan/owner double.

Away from York we’re going to bet a horse repping colours day one’s will be very familiar with.

16.40 HAVANAZAM

Taking on the odds on SMP horse after a long lay off won’t be easy but he’s better than his mark. Currently 14’s on the machine or 10’s on book, he’s an ew bet today and hope they have him fit first time up this year.