Equinties - Christmas meeting day 2

Gm Equinauts

Happy Cheltenham Saturday - you simply can’t beat it.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BAIE TO BROWNS?

We spoke about the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the other day when DANCING CITY made his chase debut. He’s a three-time Grade 1-winning novice hurdler who is second fav for the race, so he has his chance in the division.

But it’s easy to say that JANGO BAIE was much more impressive on his chasing debut, and he beat better horses.

He was epic.

He and CALDWELL POTTER took each other on, they both jumped really well, and we mean really well, and while CALDWELL POTTER faded late (Nicholls has said he might step him back in trip), JANGO BAIE was able to maintain his early movements with a good run up the hill and win fairly easily in the end. Good horse.

What’s most notable about his jumping from the above video is just how smart and economical he is, a clever horse in this respect. He measures the fence, and rather than taking loads of air, he knows he can brush through the top and not get hurt by it. He saves time, gains distance, and keeps going at a nice momentum.

He looks like a smart one, but his future is a little bit undecided. The Turners would have been obvious, but with that gone, Hendo is a bit unsure. The Brown Advisory would be an obvious long-term aim, but he doesn’t lack speed.

He’s 16/1 for the Brown Advisory, and to be honest, Hendo would be barking mad not to try him there.

As for CALDWELL POTTER, is it €740k down the toilet?

Well, firstly, in true Racing X style, racing enthusiasts have jumped on the trolling bandwagon towards the owners for paying this much for the horse.

Was it an overpayment? Yes, that whole market was crazy, but these are the guys who can do that and not blink twice. They’re laughing at you.

Back to the horse. Paul Nicholls is a little bit puzzled, but he wasn’t downbeat in his post-race comments. We all know trainers put on a brave face for the press, but this was a relaxed Nicholls knowing that the horse has only ever had five runs over obstacles. There’s still so much time. Two miles and softer ground could be the play in order to use his jumping. That’s a fair assessment. His siblings – MIGHTY POTTER, BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD etc – all did well over two and prefer softer conditions.

Racing X really can be quite cynical at times and Paul is still learning about the horse - why would you not be hoping CP turns into a weapon to take on the Irish?

SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ACCESS THE BIG RACE PREVIEWS!

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

12.10 TRIUMH TRIAL JUVENILE HURDLE

We love these races, not because they’re competitive, quite the opposite - half the field can’t win!

Cromwell’s Irish raider TOTAL LOOK has been backed into fave. He’s by CLOTH OF STARS who is still proving himself as a new jumps sire. He’s getting winners but they’re not the most highly rated ever. Already a winner over jumps from his debut effort, we can see why the market likes him.

At 11/4, we have the hype horse LAVENDER HILL MOB. This price is either a warning or a gift - don’t forget what James Owen said before his hurdles debut, it translated to something la long the lines- if you like EAST INDIA DOCK, you’ll love LAVENDER HILL MOB. That’s scarily bullish chat. Let’s talk about his hurdles debut - it was shocking and he was turned over at 7/2 on! Was Nico instructed to give him a good education with this in mind? Possibly.

AMBIENTE AMIGO is next in the market repping same connections as LHM. The yard will know which one is better and they clearly prefer LHM so we think we can draw a line through him.

QUANTOCK HILLS is one of the only horses in the line up with a proper NH pedigree meaning he should be in the mix - this is what he’s bred to do, the others being here is because they couldn’t make a flat horse.

The others really shouldn’t be winning this.

Verdict: The market is siding with the Irish raider TOTAL LOOK which makes sense however the race he won in Ireland wasn’t deep (from a pedigree point of view). Despite being the one to beat on current form, we can’t help going back to those comments made by James Owen. If LAVENDER HILL MOB was given a public schooling last time, he could be a completely different proposition today. On that basis, we’ll believe James Owen and side with LHM.

13.50 DECEMBER GOLD CUP

There isn’t a mountain of races for today, so we thought we’d chuck the December Gold Cup in as well simply to fill valuable digital real estate, if not to fortunately find the winner in a hard to read race.

MADARA has been a warm order all week. He was backed ante-post and now he is the outright favourite. He blew off the cobwebs at Ascot and Cheltenham last month and comes into here off 140 which is 7lbs above his last winning mark, though that last win was impressive. Good ground should be fine given his pedigree.

STAGE STAR has also come for a bit of support which is interesting considering he’s off 162. He won the Paddy Power Gold Cup last year off 155 and he still nearly threw the race away, so he has the scope to do this here. Properly good ground would also be questioned with him, he has done his best winning in the mud.

FUGITIF robbed IL RIDOTO in this last year but was well beaten by his rave rival last month, the pair reoppose each other today. The former comes out much the best at the weights in this clash as he gave 8lbs away that day but only has to concede 1lb today.

Paul Nicholls (and the market) has gone a bit windy on IL RIDOTO as Nicholls thinks STAGE STAR has a marginally better chance. As for FUGITIF, he’s handicapped to go well, but he seems to prefer a slower surface.

GA LAW must be a horse Snowden finds so hard to place – he’s in that horrible middle between Graded horse and top handicapper and because he always runs so well, he hasn’t given himself much wiggle room off 156. Like last time, you’d have to question how effective he can be off this mark, but the stiffer new course test should suit better than the old course and he goes on this surface.

The same ground-related positivity goes for GRANDEUR D’AME, and Alan King has said: “This has been the plan for some time.” Bullish but, big but, he’s a lot better when fresh. He’s only ever put two back to back wins together once and that was in a lot lesser company.

The form of his last race at Chepstow is good, but one can say he caught a few horses needing fitness. A 4lb rise is lenient.

IN EXCELSIS DEO slightly falls into the same category as GA LAW. He’s gone up from 131 (October 2023) to 142, yet he’s only won once in that time from seven races.

The time he did win came over this course and distance, and he fairly bolted up that day when beating the good ground-loving HANG IN THERE. He’s one who likes the surface too.

Of the rest, GERMIRANDE would have a chance. He’s on a career-high mark now, but he looked effortless when winning lto and that was on his first start of the season against race-fit horses. He also has form over this course and distance from April 2023 when he finished third in a handicap in April 2023. He has a chance here on ground he runs well on.

 Verdict: This race was the plan for MADARA last year but the weights meant he couldn’t run. This would have been the plan and the money has come for him. With the ability to (tentatively) draw lines through the others on the basis of factors like weight, going and form, MADARA gets the lazy fave vote.

15.00 GRADE 2 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

This version of the Albert Bartlet, not the Grade 1 at the Festival, is always a tough race to work out. The field often full of horses on the up or if they’re not on the up, they’re owned by connections wanting a nice day out and you have to work out why you’re drawing a line through them, made all the more confusing by the reality that these horses are too slow for 2m4f or shorter, and ultimately, a lot of them are slow burners.

SKYJACK HIJACK is a different type. He has improved 42lbs since his opening mark of 96 in July and his ceiling is yet to be found.

His jumping is immaculate, and he likes the ground. We can’t knock him too much bar the lack of sustained form with graded horses. One thing we did notice from his last appearance was that his jumping wasn’t as sharp over the last couple of hurdles as it previously had been in the race, and the five races before that! Was he getting tired? Possibly.

Kim Bailey looks at CLONDAW GENERAL “as a chaser”, but he’s unbeaten and could be interesting here. He won his three-mile PtP and then won at Worcester on soft ground. Three miles at Cheltenham on better ground – that is a tough task for a horse with a chasers frame perhaps.

ABOUTDAMNTIME finished second to CLONDAW GENERAL in that PtP and he’s since won at Carlisle over hurdles. On that bare and obvious form, CLONDAW GENERAL has the beating of him but we know, nothing is ever that simple in racing.

JET BLUE is very interesting here just purely due to his inclusion. Trained by David Cottin in France, James Reveley has come over for the ride and he has French Graded form in the book.

He finished third in the Prix de Craon in September which is a AQPS Grade 1, a series of races that produces good horse after good horse. The winner from that race, KAMARO D’HUEZ, has won a Grade 3 hurdle race already and he might have the most experience.

WESTERN KNIGHT is unbeaten over hurdles having won at Uttoxeter and Ascot last month, the latter of which came when beating EXCELLO (rated 135). He gave 5lbs away that day and he’ll like the ground. Interesting.

YELLOW CAR and STOP LASS complete the field. YELLOW CAR has the best chance of the two, he was second to the nifty HUELGOAT in a good to firm novice hurdle in August and he then won at Fontwell after that. He should handle the ground.

Verdict: We are so so loathe to take on this fave on SKYJACK HIJACK (the brilliant little horse deserves the respect, but we can’t help feel that he got tired late last time out and fatigue highlighted a tiny chink in the armour of his habitual brilliant jumping. So, who can out stay him? CLONDAW GENERAL looks a could improve (will need to) as does WESTERN KNIGHT who will be using this as a potential stepping tone for the festival. This isn’t a strong view but preference for the former trained by Kim Bailey.

RISK ON

A tough days racing today. We’ve been told SADDADD in the 15.45 can be used as leverage.

For Cheltenham:

All eye’s will be on LAVENDER HILL MOB in the opener - can he justify James Owen’s comments? At 11/4 we’re going to have a small play to find out! Yes, we’re following the hype despite the pedigree shouting no.

Other the others at Cheltenham, PEAKY BOY looks good in the 12.40 and MASTER CHEWY should be the best in the 14.25 but carries a big weight.

With the good ground playing havoc, we really suggest keeping your stakes fun sized as there could be some strange results today.

SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ACCESS OUR WEEKENDER EDITION TOMORROW

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!