Equinties - brighterdays for punters

Gm Equinauts

Money makes the world go round.

From Titan’s of the City conspiring and consolidating, to a simple purchase of a Royal stamp at your local Post Office, it’s business deals which prove the force behind every revolution of planet Earth and our little sport of horse racing isn’t immune to it.

Keep reading for our biggest tin foil hat theory ever.

Let’s dive in.

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HEADINE ROUND UP

BRUCIE BONUS

You don’t get anything for not trying, not in this game. Yes, that is a loose reference to Sir Bruce Forsyth’s Play Your Cards Right where contestants would win a ‘Brucie Bonus’ by landing a back to back gameshow double. Does horse racing have an equivalent?

Well, kind of, but we call it the £100,000 Cheltenham Festival bonus. This isn’t a new thing, but the last time we saw a horse collect the bonus for winning Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle and a race at the Cheltenham Festival was in 2021 with THE SHUNTER for Emmet Mullins.

By Emmet Mullins standards, he’s been fairly quiet in these big handicaps for a few seasons. Over the last few years, the mere mention of Emmet’s name would see a horse shorten dramatically in the betting for a marquee race (remember THIS SONGISFORYOU in the 2024 Cambridgeshire?) but his face hasn’t been seen in the winners’ enclosure as frequently as he’d like.

In fairness, he’s had some bad luck, notably with the injury sustained to JEROBOAM MACHIN and the sad death of SLATE LANE, but he had been quiet enough until the Dublin Racing Festival where he landed two handicap hurdles. VISCHIO was one of those winners, and she is now back on our radar as Mullins is attempting to do the Morebattle-Cheltenham Festival double with her.

But can she? She’s improved from a mark of 109 (October 2024) to 129, though over here she is rated 133. That’s steep but in fairness to her, she had a rating of 89 on the Flat so clearly has the ability of a good racehorse. Her run for Mullins earlier this month was her first start for the yard so who knows how much improvement he could encourage!?

With the way she looked at the DRF and her general profile, she appears to have a fine chance (even if e hate her pedigree), but she’s not the only one who should be looked at for the £100,000 bonus…

Now, we know that TELLHERTHENAME had a small setback mid-season, but Jonjo & AJ O’Neill have campaigned this horse weirdly.

He didn’t go to the Greatwood in favour of the Fighting Fifth, he then didn’t run in the William Hill Hurdle, and now he’s declared for the Morebattle.

After all, it would make the Fighting Fifth decision make a bit more sense. On his novice hurdle form alongside JANGO BAIE and LUCKY PLACE, he is well-handicapped off 137. There’s no doubt about that.

And we have a little tin foil hat theory about TELLHERTHENAME’s absence in Newbury’s big race the William Hill (the Old Betfair Hurdle (all these sponsor names are so confusing))…

We think it’s quite suspect that JOYEUSE, after obliterating the field in the old Betfair, was pulled out of the Morebattle when Nicky Henderson quite clearly stated his plan was to send her there as a consolation for not being able to run at Cheltenham.

Know they both have incredibly well handicapped horses, did JP orchestrate a deal with the Megson’s via his old friend Jonjo? We can see the handshake now - JP’s Old Betfair for the Megson’s Morebattle. Absolutely stinks of it!

If TELLHERTHENAME bolts up tomorrow akin to how JOYEUSE did at Newbury we’ll be thinking ‘we bloody knew it’. By winning well his price will crash for the County Hurdle and that ‘weird’ planning will start to look genius.

The Megsons have spent a lot money buying very good horses and landing this epic double will be very rewarding. So can he do it?

All will be revealed tomorrow at Kelso and just for reference, the yard are two from two at the track this season and when Jonjo had the license on his own, he was 26 from 152 (17%), which considering his longevity, is not too bad a stat.

We can’t wait to watch it!

KENNEDY KICKING ON!

Jockey bookings are the leading cause of hair loss for men aged 30 or over. That may or may not be a lie, but there are few things more frustrating than finding an interesting bet at nice odds ante-post and then seeing a jockey you’re not a fan of jocked up.

Now, we aren’t being callous when we say this, each punter will have their preferred jockeys (and less-than-ideal jockeys), much like football fans will have favourite and least favourite players at their club which will influence their own FIFA team selections.

Actually, it’s not called FIFA anymore… FC 25!

A few yards run this risk slightly higher than some, and to be fair, one of these yards is actual Wizard Willie Mullins’. This isn’t personal, but if you back a Closutton inmate, especially at a meeting like Cheltenham, and you see Mr. P. W. Mullins in the racecard next to your horse rather than Paul Townend, your docket can be placed in the nearest bin at your earliest convenience. Patrick Mullins is a great guy, and a brilliant writer, but Townend and Danny Mullins are streets clear. 

Gordon Elliott, on the flip side, doesn’t have any issues with this. While Jack Kennedy has been out, Sam Ewing has done a fine job in his place, and the likes of Danny Gilligan, Sean Bowen, Harry Swan, and Josh Williamson have done the same.

But, Elliott has just got a huge boost to his team of jockeys for Cheltenham as Jack Kennedy is BACK! 

Kennedy has been a thoroughly unlucky jockey. The 25-year-old has broken his leg six times (wow), but the doctors have given him the all clear to ride… again! 

He is an incredible jockey and real asset to the Elliott yard.

Welcome back, Jack.

THE ULTIMA GAMBLE

And finally, we have an early big-priced gamble for the Ultima Handicap Chase.

BROADWAY BOY has come for some money (14/1 into 10/1), but he’s not the horse. 

The one who is now 14/1 from 33/1 is WHISTLE STOP TOUR for Lucinda Russell, winner of two Ultimas with CORACH RAMBLER.

He was a fairly standard hurdler, he achieved a rating of 122, but he’s the classic example of ‘whatever he does over hurdles…’, so he was always going to improve for a fence.

And, well, he has. He’s won two so far, and he jumped beautifully at Ayr at the start of the year. The yard will only have a few at Cheltenham this year, but it seems like Peter Scudamore is excited by his prospects in the Ultima off 136.

He said: "Whistle Stop Tour is the one. I'm very pleased with him. We went to Cheltenham as he needed experience of jumping the fences and he ran a very good race.

"He's won on softer ground but he's better on good. It's hard to say he's as good as Corach because he was a unique horse, but he has a good profile to go down there.”

Plenty in the Ultima, including BROADWAY BOY, have lofty marks due to previous successes. 136 is still workable, and Scudamore has put forward some bold comments there.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/cheltenham-festival/unbeaten-novice-and-a-big-ante-post-mover-among-lucinda-russells-cheltenham-squad-aynS84d9xXn9/

RISK ON

We’re at Newbury today and the going says heavy, but the sun says ‘not for long’. STAR OF AFFINITY owns a big mud pedigree so if he goes close then we can assume the ground is still testing and will post some mud plays with a strong preference for one in the last. Let’s hope it stays sloppy. Else where we like:

17.45 BOZEMAN

A lot to find on debut’s versus the Ferguson horse but Beckett can do magic things with his horses and this lad has the standout pedigree in the field. Market support. 11/10.

BIG BUMPER COMP BELOW

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