Equinties - new tiger in town

Author

BGP Capital
March 21, 2025

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Ignore the subject title of this newsletter for the Lincoln is priced up and we have a full article today dedicated solely to the flat

We are so close to the flat season proper.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

FAST HORSES

Well, it’s about time we started talking about the Flat, and let’s be honest, the Cheltenham Festival certainly had some punters pleading for the return of the other code, that’s for sure.

A big horse during last year’s season was ROSALLION, an animal who was described as “a bit special” by Richard Hannon ahead of Glorious Goodwood 2024.

He didn’t end up running at the Glorious meeting in the end due to an injury, and soon after, Hannon ruled him out for the rest of the season due to a respiratory issue. He couldn’t make the Prix Du Moulin, and with worries the ground would be too soft in the later stages of the campaign, Hannon pulled stumps.

At the time, we pondered whether they would keep one eye on how the ground went towards the end of the season and maybe bring him back if it was good or better, but they didn’t. Ah well.

He does need nice ground, that’s for sure, and Hannon has now revealed the Lockinge is where we’ll see him first… and he couldn’t look any better apparently!

Not too much was revealed over the phone on the podcast as most of the section was taken up talking about the BHA (boring), but Hannon seemed in good form when talking about both him and the ever-consistent HAATEM, the 1-2 from the Irish Guineas.

Could he take on last year’s winner AUDIENCE?

Nope. The Cheveley Park-owned six-year-old was disappointing in the Champions Sprint on his last start, though he looked very good in both the Lockinge and Lennox Stakes. He’s still a bit underappreciated, but the Gosden’s are targeting a foreign assignment to begin his campaign.

Thady Gosden said: “It is nice that Audience has been invited for the Al Quoz Sprint. He goes well fresh, as he showed when winning the Lockinge last year, and he displayed plenty of natural speed when winning the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood over seven [furlongs].

"Dropping back in trip should not be a problem, especially at Meydan where it’s a very even six [furlongs]. He’s been training well on the Al Bahathri and he is very much on target. It’s his first overseas trip, but hopefully he’ll handle it well as he’s an older horse now and more sensible.”

Six furlongs for AUDIENCE – will it work? We’re not sure although that said, he is a bit of an enigma. He either bolts up or comes last.

He hasn’t won over the trip but does show blistering pace when often front running and trying to hold on, however his Lockinge win showed speed in an eight-furlong contest against some horses having their first runs of the season so that would leave a question mark.

That will be a lot different to a fast-paced six-furlong sprint, but at least it is on a straight track and not around a bend.

April 5th is when the Al Quoz is, so we’ll see then!



NEW TIGER IN TOWN

We were pretty surprised to see STUMPTOWN as short as 10/1 for the Grand National when we had a look the other day but to be fair, the stats look to be with him, and there is previous form to suggest that a horse of his type would go well.

TIGER ROLL did the Cross Country-Grand National double in 2018 & 2019, though TIGER ROLL is TIGER ROLL - he’s a legend.

Now, STUMPTOWN isn’t TIGER ROLL, but he’s a dower stayer. He will lob around for 3m6f and still be there; it’s just whether he will have that turn of foot at the end.

His form looks great as he finished second in the 2023 Kim Muir, he won a handicap chase on good, he won a handicap chase on heavy, and he won off his handicap mark of 157 in the Cross Country at Cheltenham.

To us, and this may seem silly to say, but he looks a bit too slow for a modern-day National if the ground is good to soft.

The Grand National has turned into a race for classy horses who have that turn of foot and are on a fair mark; STUMPTOWN is arguably on the top end of his handicap mark, and he looked slow before and after the last obstacle in the Cross Country Chase.

This will be a major test compared to the Cross Country. Taking on the likes of CHEMICAL ENERGY, LATENIGHTPASS and THE GOFFER will be a different universe to taking on IROKO, KANDOO KID, and INTENSE RAFFLES.

Anyway, on the horse, Ger Teahon, part of the ownership syndicate, said: "He loves the cross-country discipline. The highest mark he ever won off over fences is 142 and we went over the banks because we thought he probably reached his peak off his mark. 

“He won first time out in Limerick and we didn't have a euro on him. If you told us after that he'd reach the mark in the 140s, we would have laughed at you, let alone the 150s. He just keeps surprising us.

"He's won seven out of his last 15 races which is mad stuff. It's hard to know whether he's well in for the National. Is he a 157 horse? The fences will suit his jumping style, however, and he's got the right pilot on board.”

It’ll be interesting to see how he goes. Best of luck to him.


A FACE FOR TV

Speaking of Nationals, Rebecca Curtis has a great chance of winning one, though we’re talking about the Irish equivalent as HAITI COULEURS is being targeted at Fairyhouse.

That’s right, the Irish National is firmly in Curtis’ sight after a pretty dominant display in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last week.

To be fair to Curtis, she has been pretty vocal about the horse pre and post-Cheltenham, she said that he could very well have been a Brown Advisory horse, but with a mark of 135, going down the handicap route over a further distance made sense.

Even now, with a workable rating of 142, Curtis has mentioned Grade 1 potentials for the improving eight-year-old, but the Irish National is her choice. 

Curtis said: "He then had a few options with races like the Scottish National or a Grade 1 at Aintree, which is quite soon after Cheltenham, but I just think he'd be suited by the Irish Grand National.

“It's a brilliant distance for him, novices have a good record in the race, he's on a perfect mark, it's nice timing and it's something a bit different for the owners. I love Irish racing and the whole experience.

"It depends how much he keeps improving. There's the Grand National but could you think about a Gold Cup? He loves Cheltenham, stays well and has got a high cruising speed. We'll just have to wait and see where he takes us."

That’s pretty bold talk from the Pembrokeshire-based trainer. Not only could he be a Grand National horse, which makes sense, but the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been mentioned.

Woof. Unsure if he is quite that, but we wouldn’t be putting anyone off him with his current rating in the Irish National. He is a thoroughly exciting horse and boy would we like to see Curtis’ face on TV again.

RISK ON

We can’t remember when David Maxwell had such a hot shot head the market, especially at our home ground Newbury! Good luck to the mad man. We would say it looks a penalty kick but…

We will be punting live from Newbury today, keep notifications for @equinties on X on!

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