Equinties - Dutch bellwether

Gm Equinauts

Our thoughts are firmly with trainer Bill Turner’s family today. It was revealed yesterday Bill was knocked over by a horse at the yard and he unfortunately suffered a very bad brain injury.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE GREAT GAME

Trainer comments, from time to time, can be really misleading.

Ultimately, when journalists grab them post-race, they are a bit under pressure, and they have to find an answer that is hopefully correct. Most of the time, the response they give is along the right lines, but sometimes, those lines can be a bit misconstrued.

Take, for example, William Haggas. He isn’t too outgoing with the press, but he still gives relevant updates when they are required. At Glorious Goodwood after MERCHANT won the Gordon Stakes, he was asked about the next target, and the quick answer from both Haggas and Harry Herbert (Highclere Racing) was the Great Voltigeur at York, because it made a lot of sense. After all, Gordon Stakes winners usually go on to the Leger, and if they don’t, the Voltigeur is a fine compromise
However, Haggas is against running him at York, as he wants to give his potential Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe contender a bit more time after Goodwood.

He said: “Unless Merchant makes giant strides this week I am favouring giving him more time and running him in the Prix Niel as opposed to the Great Voltigeur. He is in good form, but I just think he is not quite ready and needs more time. The Prix Niel gives more time after Goodwood so that is the plan and at the moment.
“I adore York, and I would love nothing more than to win a Great Voltigeur, but I feel that France will fit better. If there are only four entries at York we might have a change of plan, but I think the extra time will do him good.”

Interesting. It’s no York for MERCHANT, but the ultimate target of the Arc must still be the same. If they are taking him to the Prix Niel, they must have one eye on Longchamp in October, and fair enough, they’d be silly not to.

So, has this news affected the market for the Voltigeur? Well, yes. Not only has MERCHANT drifted, but LAMBOURN, the English and Irish Derby winner, has also come right in, so much so that he is 2/5 in places having been even money. What makes this market move interesting is that no quotes have been officially said from connections. This is a pure move from whispers that the betting companies have heard.

We all thought that he was heading straight to the St Leger after his Irish Derby success, but the market seems to suggest that Aidan is keen to go to York with him. After all, ILLINOIS was just touched off in last year’s Voltigeur before finishing second in the Leger, so this is a proven route for O’Brien.

Will it be a prep run? To be honest, no. While there may be a small bit of fitness improvement to come from the Voltigeur, this is the height of the Flat season, and this is a race that is worth winning. O’Brien shouldn’t give up on an easy opportunity like this in order to be cherry ripe for the Leger.

Anyway, it was all change in the Classic/Classic Trial markets yesterday, but little by little, we find out a bit more about the remaining UK Flat season.

THE DUTCH BELLWETHER

If the government tax gambling companies too much, it ultimately ends up with the consumer moving to the black market to bet leading to even less tax revenue. A catch-22 for the British government who have been urged by gambling giant Entain to look at the Netherlands as a case in point. Their ‘draconian’ measures have meant a 200m black hole in expected gambling tax income owed to most punter moving to black market bookies.

The rise of black market bookmakers in Great Britain has become a significant concern to racing, with illegal gambling operations growing rapidly in recent years. According to a study by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, unique visitor traffic to unlicensed betting sites offering racing went up by 522% between August 2021 and September 2024.

Frontier Economics, commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), estimates that £2.7 billion is staked annually on unregulated online gambling platforms, with an additional £1.6 billion in illegal in-person gambling, totaling a black market worth up to £4.3 billion. This growth threatens the regulated betting industry, horse racing funding, and consumer protections.

The key driver of this surge has come from the tight regulations on bookmakers, namely the introduction of affordability checks. The Racing Post’s Big Punting Survey found that 24% of bettors faced these checks in 2025, up from 17% in 2023, with 61% refusing to provide financial documentation. Big staking gamblers, especially those whacking on £1k or more, basically have no other option but to go to the black market. 63.6% of the willing survey participants cited these affordability checks as the primary reason.

The new proposed tax reforms might be the final nail in the coffin for punters though. The Treasury’s plan to unify gambling duties will only mean the punter gets shafted at the end of the day, thus fueling the black market’s growth.

The BGC and the BHA rightly argue that such reforms could reduce tax revenue by driving bettors to untaxed, unregulated platforms, potentially costing the Treasury up to £335 million annually. This shift also threatens our beloved sport of horse racing, which relies on betting levies for £350 million in annual funding.

It’s easy to find a black market bookie and tech advancements have made it all too tempting to use. Now that every man under the sun has made himself useful with a VPN (think PornHub) punters will be able to bet anonymously without restrictions.

The argument against going to the black market (other than the fact it’s illegal) is the lack of consumer protections. That’s laughable though as even the licensed books act like criminals sometimes with thousands of the stories a week of punters being treated unfairly surface their ugly on socials. The lack of consumer protection garbage won’t sit well with the likes of us.

The British gambling scene is in a very sorry state right now, but an easy fix for you all reading this is to get out the house and get racing. Go racing and bet with cash, it feels different. You bet nearly half as much sh*te as you might do sitting at home staring at your phone. You’re fully aware of the bet when handing over cash and every note is important. There are no questions asked either, the bookies will take your bet and you don’t need to hand over any info to do so.

RISK ON

We quite like the stats horses today so will play those with small stakes in a multi, other than that - absolutely nothing worthy of risking money on unless messages comes in. If they do, we will post on X @equinties.

3x STRONG STANDOUT STATS TODAY, SUBSCRIBE TO READ:

For exactly the same price as a pint of Guinness at Cheltenham, become a premium subscriber and gain access to our very best content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • Our famous weekender edition
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Big race previews and best bets
• • Bet competitions