Equinties - dropping back

Gm Equinauts

We discovered something amusing yesterday. The biggest ‘job’ jockey there has been for a while, Nick Scholfield, has just taken over Amo’s Lambourn yard to set up as a trainer.

No doubt his yard will be full of horses owned by the punters he used to ‘help out’ during his riding career.

You’re just going to have to play ‘watch the money’ with his string.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

DROPPING BACK

What do ROYAL ACADEMY, SOVIET STAR, and ALCOHOL FREE have in common?

They all won Group 1s in the UK over 1m then 6f.

Okay, ROYAL ACADEMY is slightly different as he won the 1990 Group 1 July Cup before stepping up in trip to land the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile in the same year, but he did finish a very close second in the Irish 2000 Guineas prior to his big Group 1 success on the Newmarket July Course.

As for ALCOHOL FREE, she won the Coronation Stakes and Sussex Stakes over a mile in 2021 before winning the July Cup over 6f a season later at odds of 14/1, and SOVIET STAR did something very similar in the 1980s as he won the French 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes in 1987 before, you guessed it, winning the July Cup in 1988.

We loved ALCOHOL FREE…

Why is this important? Well, NOTABLE SPEECH is looking to add his name to this unique list as he was supplemented for the July Cup yesterday.

Immediately, this is interesting as SYMBOL OF HONOUR, a Group 2 winner who has been on a big roll this season, is also in the race for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. Whichever way you try to look at it, that seems like a negative towards the HANAVA GREY three-year-old.

Charlie Appleby hasn’t given any quotes out yet as to why this decision was made, but it’s not the worst plan in the world.

The DUBAWI four-year-old has a cracking turn of foot, as well as a high cruising speed. He travelled like a steam train into the Lockinge earlier this season before lacking fitness at the end, and when he won his Sussex, he had to wait, and wait, and wait before William Buick eventually asked him to go for home.

If you want to analyse the Sussex Stakes even further, he won the race with half a furlong to go, and the likes of MALJOOM and FACTEUR CHEVAL were closing at the line.

That suggests that he should handle the six-furlong test of the July Cup, and as we have already said, the race does lend itself to milers who have that extra bit of speed.

Furthermore, rather than potentially taking on FIELD OF GOLD again in the Sussex Stakes, he can go to a winnable July Cup and then head to York for the newly upgraded Group 1 City Of York Stakes over seven furlongs on August 23rd. The timings between the July Cup on Saturday and the City Of York look too good to ignore.

Even though NOTABLE SPEECH is by DUBAWI, who isn’t a sire that is synonymous with speed, let’s not forget that Godolphin dropped NAVAL CROWN, a fellow DUBAWI, down to six furlongs for the 2022 Group 1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes. He also chased home ALCOHOL FREE in the July Cup on his next start!

All in all, in a race that is lacking a standout competitor, Godolphin are taking a gamble on the highly talented NOTABLE SPEECH, and it seems like a fair thing to do. He is now the 9/2 market leader with FLORA OF BERMUDA at 5/1, SYMBOL OF HONOUR at 7/1, and INISHERIN at 15/2.

DECISIONS

Speaking of the Sussex Stakes and City Of York Stakes, there’s been plenty of chat on Racing X about where ROSALLION will head next.

Connections gave him a somewhat surprising entry for the City Of York Stakes, and the chat online was that last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas winner had a “strong chance” of heading to the new seven-furlong Group 1.

This came just over a week after Richard Hannon labelled the Sussex Stakes as his number one target. He also said that HAATEM “will run” in the Eclipse, and how did that turn out? Classic Hannon.

Anyway, it seems like Hannon Jr has flip-flopped again, and now the Sussex Stakes is the apparent number one target. After all, he was meant to run in the race last year before being declared a late non-runner.

Speaking about his next run, Hannon said: "I'm still not over the Queen Anne. He was in front before the line and after the line at Ascot, but it was a good race. He showed he'd improved from the Lockinge, and in terms of his performance, you've got to be delighted, but it's never nice getting beaten by such a small margin in a race like that.

"There's the Sussex Stakes, the Prix Jacques le Marois and the City of York Stakes. He'd be deadly over seven furlongs, but we're favouring the Sussex."
With this new news that NOTABLE SPEECH will head to Newmarket this weekend, and the fact that we still have no fresh update about FIELD OF GOLD, could the 5/1 about ROSALLION for the Sussex be a little bit of ante-post value?

A lot will revolve around FIELD OF GOLD’s next run, so both punters and Hannon’s yard will be watching the news websites eagerly.

COMING INTO FORM

31%. That’s the current strike rate of the Roger Varian yard over the last two weeks, and his current 2025 strike rate of 22% is the joint-highest of his whole career. 

He achieved the same number in 2022 and 2014, so the horses are clearly running quite well this Flat season.

Some might say this shouldn’t be applauded given the stock he get’s given, and we’d actually tend to agree here.

But for those of you who are lining up a few of his horses for this week’s big meetings at Newmarket, York, and Ascot, his strike form will be pleasing. The likes of ELMALKA, MY CLOUD, and DEFIANCE are entered in some big races later this week, and all three of them have interesting profiles for very different reasons.

Starting with ELMALKA, she has failed to really kick on since last season’s 1000 Guineas success, but she has still run some huge races in defeat. She was fourth in the Coronation Stakes, fourth in the Nassau, fourth in the Sun Chariot, second in the Dahlia (seasonal opener), and fourth in the Prix d’Ispahan on her most recent start.

That’s nearly as many fourth-placed finishes as Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal!

In that streak of losses, she ran into the likes of PORTA FORTUNA, OPERA SINGER, RAMATUELLE, TAMFANA, INSPIRAL, SEE THE FIRE, SOSIE, SARDINIAN WARRIOR, and HORIZON DORE, all of whom are genuine Group 1 animals.

A few people fancied her to run a big race in last month’s Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, but Varian pulled her from the race on the day due to the ground. While she is a good ground winner, and she has raced well on good to firm ground before, Varian wasn’t keen to chance her in the conditions just three weeks after a big run against the boys in France.

Now she is a fresher horse, Varian seems quietly bullish of a big run on Friday in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, as he said: "She'd been to Paris only three weeks before Ascot for the Prix d'Ispahan and I just thought a run on fast ground that soon after a trip to France would start to jeopardise her other summer targets.

"I thought it was better to take a breath with her over Ascot and target the Falmouth fresh and probably go on to the Prix Rothschild afterwards, depending on how she runs on Friday.

"It looks quite an open Falmouth and comes quite soon after Ascot. She's never run on the July course but has always run very well on the Rowley Mile and we hope she'll be equally effective. I could see her running a big race.

"She's very consistent at the top level but hasn't quite pushed the door open again. Hopefully she can on Friday. I think she can win another Group 1, but it's got to be the right race. I'm chuffed with her and looking forward to running."

That all seems pretty positive, and while CINDERALLA’S DREAM and CRIMSON ADVOCATE were good in the Coronation Stakes lto, there was a big pace collapse, which benefitted these late closers.

Could a quality horse like ELMALKA take advantage of her extra break in a winnable race? Varian certainly thinks she has her chance.

As for MY CLOUD, he was the big ‘Group horse in a handicap’ from Royal Ascot, and he will get to try Group company on the weekend in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot.

On his chance, Varian said: "We've been happy with him and I was really pleased with his work on Saturday morning. He seems to have a liking for top of the ground and the forecast again looks warm and dry from midweek.

"It's a slightly different challenge for him, in what is likely to be a smaller field and racing around a bend, but I can see him adapting to that. It will be interesting to see the entries, but it's certainly our plan and we're looking forward to it."

Finally, DEFIANCE blew off the cobwebs on Epsom Oaks Day after 350 days away from the track. He has an unchanged mark of 99, and before he had his setback, he was second to BELLUM JUSTUM in the 2024 Listed Blue Riband Trial and sixth to GHOSTWRITER in the 2023 group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes.

He is still unexposed in handicaps, and he is 6/1 for Saturday’s John Smith’s Cup at York. Exciting time for the stable.

STATS OF THE DAY

Only one stand out stat today and that’s for Sean Bowen riding for James Owen. The team have a 83% strike rate at course this year and are 6 from 8 all time. Bowen steers BALLYTECHNO in the 18.30 for James Owen today and is strong favourite.

RISK ON

We’re eyeing up one but waiting for the nod so no bets as of yet today, a horrible days racing.