Equinties - DRF day 2

Gm, Equinauts

The tracks are still smoking in Gulfstream and Leopardstown this weekend as the heavy hitters just dropped big bombs,

and we’ve still got a day left of the best Irish stuff.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NEARLY

Across the pond for this part. Only two days ago, Todd Pletcher's undefeated 2-year-old champ and Derby prospect, TED NOFFEY, was side-lined with bone bruising, wrecking his chances of the Triple Crown leaving quite the monster sized hole in Pletcher's arsenal.

Enter NEARLY (by NOT THIS TIME), the Centennial Farms colt who stepped up in brutal fashion and romping home by 5¾ lengths in his stakes debut and first try at two turns, clocking 1:44.52 while earning the full 20 qualifying points on the Derby leader board.

He’s gone close to top spot in the points chase, signalling serious classic potential.

It was Pletcher's third Holy Bull victory (joining AUDIBLE and ALGORITHMS), ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez. NEARLY's now the barn's clear flagship on the trail, with the Curlin Florida Derby on March 28 eyed as his likely next move—Pletcher's home track.

FINALLY FRANKIE

You gotta wonder if they scheduled Frankie’s last Gr 1 ride in Brazil just to set it up for the W.

After all the goings on with his financial affairs, a fake retirement and then another farewell tour (only this time in South America), fans will be forgiven for forgetting just how remarkable Frankie’s career has been. He was the unrivalled GOAT in the saddle.

Racing is really, really going to miss him. He was just so good.

Happy retirement, Frankie.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

13.50 2M GRADE 1 JUVENILE HURDLE

NARCISO HAS is heavy odds on here with the market expecting him to have improved past filly MANGE TOUT.

MANGE TOUT did thump JP’s new recruit last time out but to be fair to NARCISO HAS that his first run in the UK. She get’s a handy weight allowance.

SELMA DE VARY is another filly in the line up but she’s never been seen on these shores so she’s a note book job.

BERTUTEA has done nothing wrong for Mullins and the Ryanair lot since coming over from France but has a lot to find.

IMMEDIATE EFFECT is very interesting just owing to his sire STUDY OF MAN who is proving a properly versatile stallion and reps one of the leading Triumph hopefuls in MINELLA STUDY.

Verdict: The market says NARCISO HAS will reverse the form with MANGE TOUT but we’d like to see it first.

16.55 GRADE 1 IRISH ARKLE

Bad race this. KOPEK DES BORDES would have added a great deal to the contest, but Mullins pussied out and instead, we’re left with ROMEO COOLIO, KARGESE, and DOWNMEXICOWAY, the latter of which has a lot to find (or he needs a falsely run race).

KARGESE was good in a nothing race lto, but questions can be asked about what she beat. LOVELY HURLING was never put into the race, and from there, she had it to herself.

ROMEO COOLIO, although he’s short and does want further, is a proper horse who loves the battle. Slow ground at this trip should actually promote improvement (we think), and he should be too good. We imagine this season is all about the next though, so if he’s beaten, so what? The King George & Gold Cup have to be firm targets next season.

Verdict: ROMEO COOLIO on the bridle.

15.30 GRADE 1 IRISH GOLD CUP

We could spend hours, days, and pages on this race, but we won’t. The question to ask is will GALOPIN DES CHAMPS win his fourth Irish Gold Cup?

Honestly, yes. His prep run at Christmas was probably better than any of us ever expected, and he looked like winning for a while. We all know he needed it, and softer ground will also be no issue. Yes, he’s getting on, but 10 is a fine age, and these conditions are optimal.

What beats him? GAELIC WARRIOR has to prove himself around Leopardstown, FACT TO FILE may not stay in testing cut-up ground, AFFORDALE FURY has ground worries, and INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN has run like a bad horse all season.

SPINDLEBERRY is open to improvement, though she does need to find it quickly, and we can almost guarantee already that I AM MAXIMUS or GRANGECLARE WEST will finish in the places. They are solid beasts who stay forever.

To summarise, even if it breaks the trends and almost seems too surreal to be true, GALOPIN should win his fourth IGC.

Verdict: GAELIC WARRIOR is a horse transformed since stepping up to 3 miles. The King George was too quick for him and he’ll love the mud today. He might just be able to de-throne GDC as the new staying King.

RISK ON

We can’t help but feel we should have had a one bet, one 16/1 winner kind of day yesterday:

Today we like:

13.37 DROMLAC JURY

Apparently Tom hasn’t ever had her in better form and they’ll be unhappy with anything other than the W. 11/2 full win bet.

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