Equinties - doctors orders

Author

BGP Capital
March 20, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

It’s press day at the famous Ballydoyle and racing X will be littered with content featuring the superstars of this years flat season.

Speculative ante-post punters will be gagging to hear good reports on the all important and unbeaten CITY OF TROY.

By up and coming sire JUSTIFY (who as we know landed the greatest accomplishment in thoroughbred racing, the US Triple Crown, by winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 2018), Coolmore have lofty ambitions for the horse Aidan O’Brien is sure they’ve “never had one like him”.

CITY OF TROY is already, and deservedly, odds on for the English 2000 Guineas and as short as 2/1 for the Derby - best priced 4.8/1 for the famous double which many believe he is capable of doing.

But what about the British Triple Crown, the final leg being the St Leger run over a tough 1m6f?

Definitely not. Aidan O’Brien has already said CITY OF TROY has a jet engine so that trip should be well out of his reach on pedigree and a more sun soaked target is on the agenda.

With the weight of Coolmore’s expectation on his shoulders, CITY OF TROY, all being well, will head to America’s ‘Midsummer Derby’, the Saratoga Grade 1Travers Stakes run over 10f.

Someone want to price that treble up?

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

AWAY DAY 

Nicky Henderson could be planning a memorable away day for CONSTITUTION HILL as a battle against STATE MAN at Punchestown is on the agenda. 

According to Matt Chapman, his bloods are just about right, and in his Unibet Blog, Henderson said: “Constitution Hill has not much chance at all making Aintree, but if we can get him to Punchestown we will, otherwise he will go straight to the Fighting Fifth at the start of next season.”

So, STATE MAN vs CONSTITUTION HILL could well be happening this season after all, and it’ll be in STATE MAN’s back garden. After the small lull of the Champion Hurdle and the need to build up these big bouts to the public, this is exactly what racing needs. Nicky, you have 44 days to get him right for the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. Do it for the good of the sport.

MORE PUNCHESTOWN

This year’s Punchestown Festival could be one to savour as GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, fresh from his parade back at home in Leighlinbridge, is being lined up for another go at the Punchestown Gold Cup. 

Having finished second to FASTORSLOW in the race last year, Willie Mullins is looking to correct things and a plan to send his two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup hero to Punchestown’s equivalent is very much in the works, as he said: "At the moment, he's going to Punchestown next. I'm very happy as he's a very tough, hardy horse. There's very good prize money there, so we're hoping to run."

"I think races will take a lot less out of him now and it will extend his career now he's not running too free. He's at that age now where he is strong, mature and he's answered every question we've asked him this season. 

As for the Gold Cup fourth, L’HOMME PRESSE, connections are “50-50” on running him in the Punchestown Gold Cup, though “France in May” [potentially for the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris??] is also an option.

AN IRISH A DAY KEEPS THE DOCTOR AWAY

Boy, oh boy did Dr Richard Newland cause a stir online yesterday.

In response to the recent Irish dominance over here in British races, Dr Newland has called for an embargo on all Irish participation.

Naturally, this ruffled a few racing feathers with many taking the opportunity to crack a few jokes.

But let’s take a step back from the quite clearly absurd remarks and look at Cheltenham. It was by no means an Irish domination… it was a Willie Mullins domination.

Off the back of his recent pillage of the DRF (which was boring af btw), he’s gone to land a record haul at Cheltenham. Take out Willie Mullins and the next best trainer there was Dan Skelton!

A quick look at Irish racing suggests they too are having serious problems of competitiveness. Last years prize money table saw Willie Mullins top with over €7m in winnings. What about the rest? Well, Gordon Elliott was next with €3.8m. Next? Henry de Bromhead is a huge name, with top horses and the brilliant Rachael Blackmore riding for him…surely he must be close? No where near… €1.6m.

No other trainer is even close. In fact, no other trainer bar the big three of Willie, Gordon and Henry has a whiff of the €1m mark. Big Shark Hanlon didn’t even clear the €400k mark - and most of his prize money was won by one horse!

Newland should check what really might be the problem in racing instead of lazily throwing a blanket over the whole thing and new flash… it’s not the Irish! Or Willie Mullins for that matter.

The problem is far more simple, in fact, it’s the f*cking massive elephant on the race track! No one else is as good as Willie. That’s it. Quite staggering given the Irish are horseman through and through yet there is one man so far clear of the rest.

People should remain calm though. Just like how how capitalism works in global societies, a rising tide will lift all boats and you can bet your bottom euro that other trainers will be using Willie as a target to better themselves rather than a scapegoat, like some trainers (with medical degrees).

Rant over, carry on.

TWEETS OF THE DAY

RISK ON

We probably looked for the bet yesterday when there wasn’t one. RAFFLES WONDER was given a stinker and our big priced play, NUMITOR, will be one to follow now he’d have striped fitter for that - he looked fat a pig in the pre’s and still looked good the whole way.

In a bad days racing, there is only one tentative nod to a race of interest at Haydock:

15.15 ASCENDING LARK, DOTC & PHONE HOME

On a day of very bad and tough racing, we’re going with a small stakes, highly speculative tri-cast play here in a girls maiden where we think the market has the order right (some won’t be trying in this and Venetia’s might need time having come from France meaning it should just be top 3 involved). On ability so far Twiston’s DAMEOFTHECOTSWOLDS is top but ASCENDING LARK in the hands of Derham has more room for improvement. Snowden’s PHONE HOME to fill third. Quarter stakes on the tri-cast 16/1 and then quarter stakes on combo tri-cast at 5’s.

REMEMBER

The flat season proper will be kicked off nicely Saturday with Donny’s big betting 2yo race the Brocklesby which we have a huge track record in:

We have a pretty good idea who wins this years renewal. Don’t miss Saturdays Brocklesby edition by subscribing to the link below. For just £1 a week, you also join the Equinties weekender racing club which already has an exciting NH horse to run this year. Click below to join the club.

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