Equinties - dissecting the Derby

Gm Equinauts

The horse racing betting markets have no days off. After the mud has landed and the dust settled after an epically wet Derby meeting, you’d think punters could enjoy some respite from betting chaos on a quiet Monday morning.

But racing says NO!

(Warning: if you’re holding big in the money LAKE VICTORIA ante-posts slips for RA, well, newsflash, they’re no longer in the money any more and you might want to find the nearest bridge).

French Guineas heroine ZARIGANA is the new favourite for the Coronation Cup.

That’s because a message from inside Ballydoyle was shared stating LAKE VICTORIA, a filly who most people though was a certainty, will no be a non-runner.

Now, it has been known for the lads (Tabor mainly) to put out dummy signals to get them a better price but we’re taking the bait and with DESERT FLOWER, BEDTIME STORY, SHES PERFECT, ELWATEEN and RED LETTER non-runners, win or lose, the current price on ZARIGANA looks value at 7/4 and she will most likely go off odds on on the day.

Do with this info as you will!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

DISSECTING THE DERBY

They did it again. Like it was ever going to be anyone else, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore won the 2025 Epsom Derby… oh wait, it wasn’t Moore this time.

Instead, O’Brien relied on Wayne Lordan in the Epsom Classic, as he guided home LAMBOURN in what was a fashionable success.

In the same silks carried to success by GALILEO, POUR MOI, RULER OF THE WORLD, and CITY OF TROY, the Chester Vase winner picked up the race by the scruff of the neck after just three furlongs and did his best impression of SERPENTINE to win the Derby.

In fairness to this year’s renewal, it perfectly fitted the narrative that had been shaped in the week leading up to the contest. There was plenty of chat about RULING COURT and whether he’d get the trip, and that uncertainty grew when William Buick came back into the Epsom weighing room “unhappy” after the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. The 2000 Guineas winner was soon declared a non-runner, adding a bit more drama to proceedings.

After this, the race became more wide-open than it had previously been, and there seemed to be a smell in the air that a minor shock was about to occur. And, well, even though LAMBOURN went off at a short enough price of 13/2, it’s fair to say that the Derby did provide a few upsets for many reasons.

Firstly, there’s the manner in which the son of AUSTRALIA won the race. When Lordan started to push his mount to the front of the pack, it would have been easy to think that he was setting the pace for DELACROIX or THE LION IN WINTER, and that he would eventually fade away. This, obviously, didn’t happen.

The second surprising thing was DELACROIX’s performance, as he was beaten almost immediately, and PRIDE OF ARRAS, who we said pre-race there was rumours he was a bleeder) could only beat DAMYSUS home (the Dante’s form certainly took a whacking hit on Saturday thanks to these two, TUSCAN HILLS, THE LION IN WINTER, NIGHTWALKER, and SEA SCOUT).

And thirdly, the placed horses were all big prices! LAZY GRIFF 50/1, TENNESSEE STUD 40/1 (25/1), NEW GROUND (50/1, and was very keen on his way to the start), STANHOPE GARDENS (12/1), TORNADO ALERT (40/1), GREEN STORM (50/1), and NIGHTIME DANCER (100/1) filled out places 2-8.

Kevin Blake’s tricast (thanks to his nerdy stride analysis pre-race) paid out £8.294.72 for the right combo.

Bringing this all together, what do we make of the 2025 Epsom Derby?

The two main points are that it was a soft ground Derby full of fast ground horses, and maybe there were a fair few non-stayers in the field. For this reason, it may be worth giving a few of the poor-performing contenders a second chance on their next start.

For example, DELACROIX, who beat LAMBOURN in the Ballysax Stakes earlier this season, had an awful time of things early on, but he actually started to stay on after Tattenham Corner before giving up in the final furlong.

The Derby is the Derby and every one wants to win it but, with the benefit of hindsight, was this year’s Epsom Derby a vintage renewal? Probably not and that’s not considering after all, the winner was last of five on his only Group start as a juvenile. That said, he hasn’t been the most aggressively campaigned up until the Derby which only highlights Aidan’s genius at readying a horse!

And he could very well be a proper horse. He set a good and strong tempo, he looked well-balanced around Tattenham Corner, and he kicked away when the horses behind tried to make lengths. That’s the sign of a good horse and it seems like the St Leger is his big target for the season from now, and the Irish Derby will probably be taken in on the way to Doncaster.

Finally, let’s give a quick shout to his pedigree. His grandsire, GALILEO, and his sire, AUSTRALIA, are Derby winners, so he completes a nice Epsom-related treble for the bloodline. Furthermore, his damsire, SCAT DADDY, is the grandsire of last year’s Derby winner, CITY OF TROY. Interesting!

Well, that’s the Derby done for another year. Glorious stuff.

NO DAVID, JUST GOLIATH

He may be sporting new silks, but last season’s King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes victor returned to the winners’ enclosure for the first time since October with a facile success at Longchamp in the Group 3 La Coupe.

Now part-owned by Resolute Bloodstock, the five-year-old gelding was having his first start since his ninth of 11 in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin in April, and he made light work of a pretty beatable field.

What path does this put him on for the rest of the season? He looked like a type who could go so well in an Arc, but he’s lacking two important bits of hardware that would allow him entry into the starting gates.

Francis-Henri Graffard didn’t immediately nominate a target for him, but it’s unlikely that he’ll go to Royal Ascot. So, after his first run in Europe of the year, he could now head straight to the King George at Ascot in July as a fresh horse and take a bit of beating.

His performance in the race last year was no joke, and the form of beating BLUESTOCKING, REBEL’S ROMANCE, AUGUSTE RODIN, and LUXEMBOURG is very good.

On yesterday’s performance, Graffard said: "Today was a real test in terms of his temperament and whether he put himself under pressure.

"The twice he has really dropped the bit and relaxed was when Maxime Guyon made the running on him here, and then at Ascot, when they went a really honest pace. Those races are when you’ve seen the real Goliath. Every other time we’ve tried to restrain him and take a lead and it hasn’t worked at all for him."
More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/reports/youve-seen-the-real-goliath-king-george-hero-passes-crucial-test-with-impressive-la-coupe-win-ai4o69Y1mUhw/

WEEKEND EYE-CATCHERS

RAAKEB – FRIDAY 14.05 EPSOM

It looks like MAXIMISED is off to the July Stakes after his win in the Woodcote Stakes, so the form of the race will be tested at Group 1 level soon.

With the hope that Godolphin’s winner is pretty smart, it may be worth keeping an eye on RAAKEB going forward.

The TEN SOVEREIGNS colt sat nicely behind the field, and despite hanging a bit left on the chamber of the track, he kept on nicely for pressure.
That was his third run, so he will have plenty of experience against fellow juveniles this season, and he could even drop into a nursery soon. Horse to follow.

DOCKLANDS – SATURDAY 13.35 EPSOM

DOCKLANDS should have won the Group 3 Diomed Stakes. PERSICA was good, and nothing should be taken away from him, but Richard Kingscote gave the MASSAAT five-year-old a bit of a stones.

The horse likes to be held up, and Kingscote duly obliged. That’s fair enough, but as they rounded Tattenham Corner, Kingscote found himself in a bad position, and Ryan Moore manoeuvred his mount down the outside to make sure he was stuck in a pocket.

Kingscote had to pull DOCKLANDS to the outside with two furlongs to go, but by the time he regained his stride, it was too little too late, and PERSICA was too hard to peg back.

That was his race to win, and connections are going to run him in the Queen Anne next, which will be one of the hottest renewals of the race in recent years. As Eustace told the Post: “He could run his absolute guts out and finish fourth.”

RISK ON

A bad days racing today with really the only feature being the 2yo race at Brighton which see’s a 300k Amo HAVANA GREY colt making his debut. Apparently he’s only 70% wound up so the money is for the Crisford filly who we will back with small money, otherwise a tools down day.

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