Equinties - ding ding

Gm Equinauts

Newbury yesterday, Chepstow today, Sandown Friday, Cheltenham Saturday…slop, heavy going, the battleground for the17hh staying chasers we know so well, steered by the world class jockeys who deliver us so much joy (and pain!).

There is no better place to be in January than Great Britain if you’re a racing fan.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

AGAINST THE ELDERS

Although horse racing (rightly) gets some stick about how good horses are campaigned…or not at all, there can be no denying that Paul Nicholls loves racing. This very statement is backed up by his intention to run STAY AWAY FAY in open company on Trials Day on the way to his ultimate aim of the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Festival. 

It’s not quite BEEF OR SALMON levels of campaigning, but it’s refreshing to see. 

The seven-year-old is unbeaten over fences having downed the colours of GIOVINCO at Sandown in the Grade 2 Esher Novices’ Chase in early December – admittedly, that form has taken a knock which would have to be a worry but Nicholls thinks there are “a few who need to answer questions”.

You’d think he’s right what with THE REAL WHACKER who has been lame this season and then failed to raise a gallop when beaten in the King George. Even his most loyal fans will be finding it tough to continually stick with him.

 At 6/1, STAY AWAY FAY is big enough for punters to take a chance on the improving chaser, and if Team Ditcheat thinks he can be a Gold Cup horse in time, this weekend will give them a good progress report on how they stand.

AUGUSTE IN MARCH

The Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings were released yesterday and it came as no shock to see EQUINOX at the top on 135 with ACE IMPACT and MOSTAHDAF behind on 128. 

Back on 125 was AUGUSTE RODIN who has been given his season-starting target as Aidan O’Brien is keen to head to the Sheema Classic on March 30th in Dubai. 

The 4yo silenced the doubters after both his Guineas and King George defeats with successes in the Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes, and a brilliant Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Now heading into another season with him, O’Brien has his first three races mapped out, as he said: “I suppose with Auguste Rodin this year we are going to start off probably in Dubai (March 30), then he might come back to the Curragh for the Tattersalls (Gold Cup), then he could go to Ascot for the Prince of Wales’s.

“Then after that, it is possible we could have a look at dirt and see what happens because when we cantered him on the dirt at the Breeders’ Cup he was loving it.” 

DING DING!

As we did a few weeks ago, today’s newsletter is going to slightly preview a good handicap race from an ante-post perspective with our initial thoughts. This week, we have chosen the Cheltenham’s £100,000 handicap chase at 13.15.

The top two in the market are the two who fought this race out last year – IL RIDOTO and FUGITIF, the former coming out on top by an easy length.

These two always bump into each other for a punch-up, a bit like their connections.

FUGITIF’s owner Carl Hinchy and Paul Nicholls have beef. Well, we say beef, it’s just a bit of handbags between two fully old men acting like school girls but boy is it fun to watch.

Back to the horses. The two were seen again displaying the forecast at Cheltenham in December. Bryony Frost rode a good race for most of the contest, though if we are being picky, she went a bit too early around the bend and was beaten by a short-head. With the weight difference and with Cobden steering, IL RIDOTO should get the better of FUGITIF again.

Venetia’s VICTTORINO comes into this on a hattrick. He’s looked very very good the last twice in big Saturday handicaps. If he has improved for his third run over fences this season, he could be well handicapped for a yard who have been brilliant this year.

Also near the head of the market at 6’s is EXCELLO who is looking to defy a 13lb rise in the weights after his success over SOLO lto. It’ll be tough to do so and he would have to be a Graded horse of the future off 146, though he did do it comfortably at Ascot. 

As for horses dropping through the handicap that could go well, BILL BAXTER is just five pounds above his Topham success, though one could suspect he is getting handicapped for that race again in April. 

STRAW FAN JACK is also back into handicap company for the first time in 14 months when fourth in a race at Newbury that included FRERE D’ARMES, DATSALRIGHTGINO, and BALCO COASTAL. 

Off 137, he likes the course and he could be well-handicapped.

Verdict: Look, it’s easy to see this has been the plan for years for both FUGITIF and IL RIDOTO and most will think its just the two horses racing. But visually, we have been very, very impressed with the way VICTORINO has gone about his work and it certainly looks the ceiling isn’t at a rating of 146.

YOUNG BLOOD

CATTERICK BUMPER

WENDINGO is fave here and if he hadn’t have run yet he’d be the bet, we love his ped. But, he just hasn’t enamoured us with his runs this far. So tentatively we take on.

JJ’s is another lto winner. Drifting but visually looked to run better than the fave WENDINGO. Tentatively one to take on again.

Lacey’s is interesting. A filly against boys which is never good but the two boys top of market carry pens and she gets the fillies allowance. Nothing wrong with her pedigree and will LOVE the mud.

The others will struggle to get close to these front three in our view.

Verdict: probably not a betting heat here but we do think JJ’ and Snowden’s are one to take on so we’ll side with Lacey’s filly. Picking a filly in a bumper is rare for us and we’re not confident, it’s more of an ego play.

RISK ON

After banging in the place part of the double and a 12/1 winner yesterday,

today is tough!

13.50 INVICTUS ALLEN

Small bet here mainly because he’s a slop lover in the weakest field today. Trainer Christian hasn’t had a winner for a long time, some of that will be by design but this lad might be able to deliver the much needed W to yard form. 5/2.

14.00 RATH GAUL HILL

We think he could be the best chaser in this race. Not a strong view but yard having a good time of it and worth a small bet single and TINY 17/1 ew double with INVICTUS ALLEN.

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