Equinties - the Derby King returns

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BGP Capital
May 25, 2023

Equinties

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

It's a big, big week for flat racing and Sandown has a punchy evening card to kick it all off.

The TOTE Fantasy features Sandown today. Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

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Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

High five for Rachael 

Remember this ride from Rachael Blackmore not so long ago? 

How can you forget it! Rachael Blackmore, one of the best and most famous jockeys in the modern era made the (extremely rare and) unfortunate howler of finishing out a race a circuit too soon.

The stewards obviously decided to sympathise with Rachael because she didn't get penalised for the mistake...until now.

In an abrupt U-turn by the stewards, the Gold Cup-winning jockey has now received a five-day ban following an independent investigation. 

It's the right decision, if anything lenient, but this shouldn't have happened and therefore questions over consistency have to be raised. Were the stewards biased towards her because she's Rachael Blackmore? For example, Neil Callan was given 12 days for doing the exact same thing on the flat at Kempton. 

Big race previews

18.42 Listed National Stakes

 This looks a very good race this year. 7 out of the 10 runners won on their debuts and two won second time out and it'll be difficult to predict, for obvious reasons, how much each one has stepped forward (or back!) from their debuts. 

ELITE STATUS is seemingly held in high regard, his trainer Burkey purring over him in a recent interview with Racing TV. For once this season the early 'yard money' was right (swear those lot always gamble their 2yo's and it often goes down the pan) and this son of HAVANA GREY won like a good horse. The form is questionable, none in behind have raced since apart from the 5th (btn 10lengths) has since ran 8th on his next start. 

BLUE STORM is a horse we've mentioned previously in Young Blood. His dam was a Listed winner over 5f and produced SILVER SURFER who was placed at Listed level twice and ASJAD who has been a good flag bearer for James Horton noticeably winning off a mark of 101 at Doncaster last year. Blue Storm was a 75k yearling and very much looks the part. His debut win at HQ carries a lot of substance with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all winning their next starts. Tate will be happy with the draw. 

HACKMAN is by the mighty MEHMAS. His dam wasn’t quick herself with her best efforts being 4th place over a mile and over 7f however, she has produced two horses who have a peak RPR of 94 so she’s clearly going well as a broodmare and might not be far away from a nice one, HACKMAN could be that one. He looked well held on debut by BLUE STORM but then stepped forward on his second outing to win well at Chester (we backed him).

ON POINT. The boys in blue send this son of BLUE POINT here after his win at Newmarket on debut. Only 3 runners lined up after it turned soft but the form looks ok with the second coming out and being  a good second at York nto, the third was well beaten in this and didn’t progress on his nto run being 8th. Should progress on this quicker surface but really has to do so against these rivals. 

MATTERS MOST is by ADVERTISE who was second to CALYX as a 2yo at Royal Ascot. His dam is SQUASH who was 2nd in the Nell Gwyn and has produced HAYMAKER who reached an OR of 90. He ran ok on debut behind DAPPER VALLEY but took a big leap forward on his second start on a quicker surface and with experience under his belt.

DAPPER VALLEY is by DANDY MAN who produces a lot of good 2yo’s (as seen yesterday at Yarmouth). 55k yearling, fast family. Made a very encouraging debut at Newbury (soft ground) winning in the manner of a Group horse, the 3rd (MATTERS MOST) and 4th have since won so the form stacks up well. Drawn well in 5, doesn’t have to improve a huge amount to be in the mix so has to be taken seriously. 

Verdict: BLUE STORM is 3/1 which is fair given he holds the best form going in to the race and has a handy draw which is key. It’s definitely not a race to have a big play in because there are a lot of form lines and any one of these could take a giant leap forward after either their debuts on second race starts.  

19.12 Group 3 Henry II Stakes 

This evenings Sandown card is great but this stayers race really does leave a lot to be desired.

Topping the market is ENEMY for Ian Williams who is definitely on a redemption mission - he was eighth in Meydan and fifth behind HAMISH on his last start, though he was only five lengths back, so back to this level could be his deal. 

Andrew Balding fields the next best in the market with NATE THE GREAT - 5/2 may be a bit short? Yes. He was convincingly beaten on his last start by COLTRANE and the favourite had the beating of him before that. 

The interesting one in the field is ROBERTO ESCOBAR. Second to NAYEF ROAD and sixth in the Ebor in 2021 reads well and a return to this company could see him to his best. 

Of the rest, SLEEPING LION was behind EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS two starts ago, a horse who went on to win a decent Class 2 race, and PRINCESS ANNE, the French raider, brings up the field having won at Deauville three starts ago. 

Verdict: It's a bad Group race and these stayers are always blowing hot and cold - we'll swerve this.

19.42 Brigadier Gerard Stakes 

This should probably be sponsored by Sir Michael Stoute, he loves this race having won it a dozen times and he sends Derby hero DESERT CROWN today, who is returning after 355 days on the sidelines.

DESERT CROWN has only raced the 3 times but looked impressive when winning the Dante before going on to lane Epsom Classic. But what has he beat? Last years Dante was crap and the Derby was one of the worst for years with only WESTOVER really providing any substance to the form (and arguments could quite easily be made he may have won the Derby if given a better ride).

Without a doubt, the class horse in this race is HUKUM but he has a big question mark whether he’ll run on fast ground. BAAEED’s full brother has had 3 screws put in his hind leg last year when suffering an injury when winning the Gr1 Coronation Cup. Word of caution; this is a prep run for the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot over 1m4f. 

CASH is only rated 109 but comes here with huge potential. The son of SHAMARDAL will like the track as he was second to WESTOVER in the Classic trial. WESTOVER was unlucky in the Derby itself so that form reads well. CASH produced a very encouraging comeback run over a mile behind CHINDIT when he ran out of track. The extra 2 furlongs today is a positive with the dam winning at 1m6. 

CLAYMORE has come a long way since being sold for 5k as a yearling and 10k as a breeze up. He beat  Derby second HOO YA MAL in the Craven stakes behind NATIVE TRAIL. Any Royal Ascot win is worth noting, he had the measure of Group performer REACH FOR THE MOON in the Hampton Court Stakes.  

VERDICT: CASH has a real chance to disrupt the party here. DESERT CROWN is coming back off a long lay off and would prefer some ease in the ground... maybe wants further than 1m2f too. We love HUKUM and his best form would blitz this field but he definitely wants 1m4f and it cant be ignored that the Owen Burrows has openly stated that this is a prep run. In all, CASH is the bet.  

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

15.00 Haydock

BJORN IRONSIDE is by TOO DARN HOT who cost 300,000 as a yearling. He’s bred on the DUBAWI/FRANKEL cross. It’s the other way round here but FRANKEL over DUBAWI mares have produced the likes of ADAYAR, HOMELESS SONGS, MOSTAHDAF and this years Derby fave (bro to ADAYAR) MILITARY ORDER. 

INNVINCIBLE FRIEND is by INNS OF COURT and has run well the two times he has raced, second start was behind HACKMAN who contests the National Stakes today. Beat THE CAMDEN COLT lto. Could be vulnerable to a good debutant.

THE CAMDEN COLT is by FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND o/o a full sister to dual Gr3 scorer VENUS DE MILO (1m4f). His 3rd dam was a champion and she produced INCHINOR. He had INNVINCIBLE FRIEND in front of him lto but that was his debut and IF’s second start so you imagine some improvement is on the cards. 

TWILIGHT ROMANCE is by TWILIGHT SON and picked up for £85,000 as a yearling. Dam didn’t run at 2 but made up for lost time winning and placing in Listed races. Dam has produced REDEMPTION TIME who ran in the Norfolk Stakes last year. Probably one to watch on debut.

DARING LEGEND is by Dark Angel o/o a full sister to Gr3 winner SWISS DREAM, called SWISS AIR. SWISS AIR's two sisters have produced stakes winners, notably YAFTA who won the Hackwood Stakes. Eye catching ped.

ONLY IN JAKARTA cost 310,000gns, by gun sire NO NAY NEVER and from the exact same family as DARING LEGEND. A January foal, family of SWISS SPIRIT and last years Windsor Castle 3rd Eddie’s Boy. He's massively on the drift, 9's out to 20's.

THUNDER BLUE is by BLUE POINT and cost €105k as a yearling and flipped for £180k as a breezer. O/o a KODIAC mare who won twice as a 2yo and was Listed and Gr3 placed, from the family of LOGO HUNTER. Strong page. 

SOLDIERS GOLD is by SOLDIERS CALL and a half brother to the 101 rated MR MCCANN who was a top 2yo for Dascombe and has won twice at Haydock. Can his half follow the trend?

SHAGRAAN, the Clive Cox inmate who cost €35k as a foal and flipped for £80k as a yearling. By SIOUX NATION who has made a bright start to his career helped by MATILDA PICOTTE. 

Verdict: THUNDER BLUE comes from the Amo Racing 2yo factory. BJORN IRONSIDE will have his supporters but might be out for a jog around. On price and pedigree, DARING LEGEND is the each way play at 12's.

Risk on

The only preview horse we're getting risk on is DARING LEGEND at 12's and CASH at 5's, both ew.

17.05 GIRL RACER

She's by NO NAY NEVER who are versatile on the ground so today's concrete shouldn't be a problem. She clearly didn't like the conditions at HQ in the Nell Gwynn but ran a good enough race on only her second start. She should take some beating today. 5/4 full single.

19.42 CASH

This could be the bet of the century. Not in size, but just because we're taking on the 4/9 Derby winner and it would be a f*cking flex if we pulled this off. Jamie Spencer loves CASH and with negatives for the main protagonists, today could be his Royal Ascot. Full win bet at 5's.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: 

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