Equinties - Derby draw

Author

BGP Capital
May 30, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

“How’s a little horse like that going to win…?” - Willie Carson on City Of Troy.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BIG MONEY BASSETT

Before we kick back into the Flat talk, it’s worth mentioning yesterday’s HIT PtP sale at Tattersalls Ireland where ARSLAN, a WOOTTON BASSETT four-year-old, made €180,000.

Sold to Harold Kirk and trainer Willie Mullins, he is out of dual Grade 1-winning mare HARMONIOUS and was bred by Al Shaqab Racing.

Despite his sire producing mainly flat oriented horses, he showed good attitude on his debut at Tralee last week as he finished second, and his new connections were very complimentary with the way he looked in the ring.

Kirk said: “I loved him in his point-to-point–he could be a two miler, could be a mile-and-a-half Flat horse or he could be a good hurdler. He has shown he can jump, but he could do two jobs and we are hoping he will make a good dual-purpose type.”

That final comment about him from Kirk is the most interesting one as in recent years we have seen Mullins dabble in the Flat more than he used to. Don’t forget ECHOES IN RAIN came close to winning the 2022 Irish Cesarewitch and we all know what happened with VAUBAN last year!

He’ll take some time, and there are plenty of things that have to fall into place for this lad to be a top-class horse, but he could well be ripping up the turf on the Flat as well as over hurdles in years to come.

OAKS DAY PUZZLES

We didn’t bring you an ‘A Look Ahead’ this week for Derby weekend for two reasons. For one, we have no idea what the ground is going be like given the weather is all over the place. Secondly, Epsom can’t even stable the horses for some of the handicaps, so why should we bother (see tweet below)?!

However, we’ve had a look through the handicaps on Oaks Day to highlight a few interesting runners without doing a full preview of each race. So, here are some musings which you might want to revert back to when assessing the races on the day.

KOY KOY looks a fair favourite considering the one turf handicap he won came when he was rated 2lbs lower than his current mark and he went off the 11/10 favourite in a Class 2 race which always speaks volumes. Fit from a winter in Meydan, good ground will be up his street and he looks set for a big run. Boughey won this race in ‘22.

However, Charlie Johnston won this race last year and he has three solid chances…

DUTCH DECOY couldn’t win this race off a 6lbs lower mark last year, so he can be dismissed, and while FINN’S CHARM deserves respect, BENACRE could be the one here. He’s a big galloper, which is probably why they tried him at 1m2f and 1m4f last term, but his wins have come over 7f & 8f, so the trip or 8.5f around Epsom should be no issue.

Some might argue he hasn’t trained on since his 2yo days but his form is deceiving, he went off the 2/1 fav for last season’s German 2000 Guineas (4th) having ran well behind SHOULDVEBEENARING in a Listed race off levels. He was ahead of MAJECTIC PRIDE (now rated 106) that day and the form with DEAR MY FRIEND, FLIGHT PLAN, and GALERON from last year’s Listed Burradon Stakes looks solid as well. Off a mark or 91, he could well be dangerous here. He also won an Epsom handicap as a 2yo.

The other handicap horse to take a second look at is HODLER in the finale, a seven-furlong handicap worth nearly £40,000 to the winner.

Jim Boyle’s 5yo was highly-tried last year as he accumulated 10 races and just one win, however, that win is important. He beat GORAK at Chester on soft ground that day off a mark of 84; GORAK improved from his mark of 78 to 105 last year and he ran well in a Newmarket handicap off 95 the other day (he is also the work horse of THE WIZARD OF EYE who won the Victoria Cup). He is a lover of soft ground and has an Epsom record of one win and one second. A mark of 81 gives him a right chance here and he’s had three runs to get him right for the race.

He’ll have last years winner SPANISH STAR to beat who returns from Patrick Chamings. They each want very different ground.

Remember - these horses aren’t tips, just ones to note when you’re assessing the races tonight.

APPLEBY’S WISDOM

It’s easy to get drawn into the talk around CITY OF TROY for this year’s Epsom Derby, and while the quality may not be up to scratch in 2024, it’s hard to argue that this year’s Derby has provided some of the most interesting pre-race talk for a while.

It’s almost easier to forget that Charlie Appleby is sending the Group 1 Futurity Stakes winner, ANCIENT WISDOM, to the race who looks to have a great chance of etching his name into the history books. Well, they all do given the weakness of the race!

The form of his Group 1 two-year-old win looks solid and a return to slower ground will benefit him massively.

On his chances, trainer Appleby said: "I was happy with his reappearance in the Dante. There was a good winner there but I felt there was going to be plenty of improvement from Ancient Wisdom and he has shown all the right signs since.

"We know he relishes the slower ground and with the forecast being the way it is, we'll hopefully encounter that on Saturday, which should enhance his chances. William [Buick] sat on him on Wednesday and the whole team are delighted with how he's progressed since his first three-year-old start.”

Is he the horse you want to be with on Saturday? Apparently not for the Racing Blogger who tweeted this this morning:

CITY OF TROY gets numero uno, that’s no good. Okay, ADAYAR from stall 1 won it in ‘21 but historically its an awful draw. History’s most successful stall is 10, the aptly named GODS WINDOW starts from there.

What stall does your Derby bet start from? Let us know your thoughts on X.

ELITE BLOODLINE

The Crisford’s journey home back from their barrier trial day out would have been all smiles and dreams of Royal Ascot with their 420k baby monster rocking the lorry in the back.

If you’re reading this and asking ‘who’s the baby monster’ and ‘what the hell is a barrier trial?’, then let us explain.

Young horses needed experience. Most will do it on the track and do their business later in handicaps when a little more streetwise. Others need to be ready first time up and tracks open their facilities to offer racecourse gallops or, a step further - a barrier trial. A barrier trial is basically a private race where trainers can simulate racing conditions for their unraced horses.

The whole thing is quite a clandestine affair which some might argue isn’t right (other countries are very open with these races), so for those who are privy to the ongoings there, it can provide useful clues to future bets! Luckily for you Equinauts, we have some footage of yesterday’s barrier trial and can confidently say the Crisford’s unleashed a good horse yesterday.

His name is SOLDIERS HEART and you’ll recognise the family he comes from. By the one and only HAVANA GREY, he’s out of the mare DOTTED SWISS making him a full brother to Burkes rocket ELITE STATUS.

The Crisford’s will naturally have Royal Ascot ambitions with the pedigree he has but let’s hope he doesn’t fluff his lines likes his brother did last year!

RISK ON

Good to see our new hire Norm continue his bull run on X. As everyone knows by now he contributes daily columns and Saturday bets in the newsletter.

The newsletter didn’t post a bet yesterday but we have a strong one today:

20.40 MILTIADES

Needed the run lto having come back from injury. Cobden will lead and not get caught. 2/1.