Equinties - Derby deal for Teal

Author

BGP Capital
May 22, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Last week, we banged in another winner for our A Look Ahead section as we put up KING’S GAMBIT at 9/2 who duly obliged with ease, taking our ante-post tally to 3 winners and 3 places from 12 races - an extremely profitable strike rate given the shortest winning price was 9/2, the biggest 12/1 (25/1 sp!).

This week, we look North to Haydock… where the clerk of the course simply can’t leave the track alone.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

EPSOM GALLOPS MORNING

In the opening paragraph of yesterday’s newsletter, we mentioned that Roger Teal had confirmed DANCING GEMINI for the Epsom Derby having had a successful spin around the Downs on Tuesday.

However, he wasn’t the only horse that took to Epsom yesterday and his piece of news wasn’t the only notable one as Ralph Beckett revealed he could run five fillies in the Epsom Oaks.

The obvious two include FOREST FAIRY (Chester Oaks winner) and YOU GOT TO ME (Lingfield Oaks Trial winner), though SEAWARD (Chester Oaks third), CLASSICAL SONG (Musidora third), and TREASURE (Lingfield Oaks Trial fourth) could also stand under starter’s orders at the end of the month.

Of the five, TREASURE is “40-60” to run as they are more likely to wait for the Ribblesdale and they’ll be a late decision on CLASSICAL SONG.

Away from the obvious contenders, there were two horses that grabbed a bit of attention on the media morning.

The first was VOYAGE, Richard Hannon’s GOLDEN HORN colt who won impressively on debut at Newbury.

Owned by Julie Wood, she apparently gives at least one of her horses a Derby entry every year in the hope they are good enough to run, so to have one that is will give her a massive buzz.

Finally, at the bigger prices, Owen Burrows is set to have a runner with DEIRA MILE for Green Team Racing, the same owner that had HOO YAL MAL finish second to DESERT CROWN in the 2021 Derby at 150/1.

He stretched clear of owner and stablemate MARHABA MILLION, a GALILEO half to Richard Hannon’s Group 1-winning TIGGY WIGGY, so that would offer some hope that he deserves his place in the field.

ROSALLI – ODDS-ON

Speaking of Classics, ROSAALION – second in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas – is still on course for the Irish 2000 Guineas this weekend after his recent piece of work.

The three-year-old by BLUE POINT travelled like the best horse in the 2000 Guineas earlier this month but found NOTABLE SPEECH too good, however, a tilt at the Irish equivalent is on the agenda.

Richard Hannon, who will also send HAATEM to the Irish 2000 Guineas, said: "Rosallion is in great form. I'm really happy with both of them, they did a piece of work on Sunday morning and Rosallion travelled like a genius, and Haatem did what he normally does. He's very relaxed and just shows his wellbeing."

As for opposition, Aidan O’Brien looks likely to run UNQUESTIONABLE, RIVER TIBER, and MOUNTAIN BEAR. HENRY LONGFELLOW is a possibility, though Plan A is the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

A LOOK AHEAD

After a brilliant winner in KINGS GAMBIT last week, A Look Ahead is back.

From one three-year-old handicap to another, this week we’ll be looking at the Silver Bowl Handicap worth £100,000 featured at Haydock.

Dick Of The Week award duly goes to Haydock’s clerk of the course who has been watering all week. why can’t we just let fast ground horses have their edge!?

Anyway, VOLTERRA heads the market for Kevin Ryan having won his last three, the latest of which occurred on Guineas weekend at Newmarket. He was priced accordingly on the last day as he was sent off 7/4 and won by nearly three lengths. The second, SKUKUZA, has won a Class 3 handicap since, though the third, THE CAMDEN COLT, is arguably an exposed three-year-old who was giving weight away to the winner.

KING’S GAMBIT won the London Gold Cup off a mark of 93 on Saturday which looked like a nice mark based on his third to BRACKEN’S LAUGH at Newbury in September. Who was third that day? Well, it was BLUE LEMONS who has a handicap mark of 99.

His profile is slightly different to the one of KING’S GAMBIT as he’s raced three times since, twice this season, and has improved 7lbs from his opening mark of 92.

One could say that getting 5lbs for finishing nearly five lengths behind BRACKEN’S LAUGH at Chelmsford in April is harsh, but he stuck on nicely and the form with BRACKEN’S LAUGH and CAPULET looks strong. One to consider.

William Haggas has never won this race, though MONFRID is entered for him this year having won at Catterick two weeks ago. He is rated 82, but he is a ZOUSTAR out of the Group 3-placed GOLDEN STUNNER, so there could well be plenty of improvement to come. It’s hard to get a grip on his form, but he beat SUN GOD on his second start who we highlighted as a Guineas weekend eye-catcher.

One of the hottest pieces of form at the table on Saturday is the one brought forward by BALMACARA, Eve Johnson Houghton’s three-year-old by NEW BAY. He was third on debut in a Newmarket novice, a race that has produced ZOUM ZOUM (Listed winner), KIKKULI (FRANKEL’s half-brother), and ECONOMICS (Dante winner). He was as green as grass that day, but still shaped well and has won two races since. Is a mark of 94 his ceiling or can he go on from here?

Oisin Murphy is already jocked-up on SIR LES PATTERSON, Harry Eustace’s 85,000gns ZOUSTAR colt. He comes from a good family as his dam, EVIL SPELL, is a half to both OLIVIA MARALDA (Listed winner) and KING OF HEARTS (Group 3-placed in the UK now running in Hong Kong). He did well to defy a penalty at Kempton lto, but the second and third have failed to frank the form since.

At the bigger prices, MAGSOOD could be interesting for Roger Varian off a mark of 87. This is his handicap debut after four runs and he was sent off a well-backed fav to win in September under a penalty but found one too good.

His form with the 102-rated AABLAN looks solid and he was third to the 95-rated INISHFALLEN on debut, so he’s one to consider.

Verdict: this wholly depends on that the ground does. There could be a different horse winning on soft than if it was run on fast. We’re going to go with a soft ground horse as there is some rain forecast on top of the already watered track. VOLTERRA looks the right favourite and can win it if the rain comes 5/1.

DOWN UNDER

Two trainers in Australia are nearing closer to breaking the $50 million ceiling in prize money.

Chris Waller, who trained the superstar WINX is no stranger to big wins. A Golden Slipper win for Waller and team Coolmore last year with SHINZO who has now started his second career at Coolmore Stud In Australia for a service fee of $55,000. Also in Wallers care is Gr1 winner VIA SISTINA who won the Gr1 Ranvet Stakes for her new owners Yulong.

CIARON MAHER is chomping at the boots of Waller, current prize money for that stable stands at $45.7 million. Waller has accumulated $47.5 million. Maher trained GOLD TRIP to win the Melbourne Cup.

It’s not necessarily that either trainer completely dominated likes Mullins or O’Brien. The amount between each trainer illustrates the level of prize money in Australia at the moment.

RISK ON

We should have just played the word on Stoutes yesterday - that was a big gamble landed. Today we’re playing:

15.30 NEVER FORGET YOU

Lovely type who will know her job having been a breeze up of Mark Grants. Very good horse. 2/1 good for a small bet in a race full of new comers.

18.40 & 19.10 DOUBLE

Backing the two favourites here in PATCH MAN and SHES MY SHADOW. Both should be incredibly hard to beat. 2.5/1 double.

19.30 SMOULDERING

Looked green lto but that was her debut but that still sets the standard. Even money a good bet.