Gm, Equinauts

Yes, it’s grey and miserable, but it’s Derby day. That will put a smile on your face. It’s great racing, the card is stacked with champs and young pretenders and these are the kind of days where opinions are rewarded.

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Today is a WORLD POOL day meaning you can bet into very deep LIQUIDITY so make sure you make the most of it via the Tote app!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

☔THE GOING

Oisin confirmed our suspicions yesterday that clerk of the course Andrew Cooper may have been telling a little ‘porky’ about the true state of the ground.

Everyone who set foot on the course yesterday, including a trainer who reported back to us first thing in the morning, agreed it was soft.

So it begs the question: why on earth did he do that?

Incredibly difficult to answer.

Believe it or not, this morning, conditions at Epsom actually appear to be drying out ahead of Derby Day, with Cooper suggesting the ground may be quicker than many had anticipated. Epsom seems to have missed the overnight downpour we experienced over here in Berkshire and as such, there has been no deterioration in the going and if the day stays the same, there could be an upgrade in the going.

Is that an upgrade on the true ‘soft’ going or Cooper’s supposed ‘good to soft’ yesterday?

The Derby course is currently being reported as good to soft, good in places.

While showers remain a possibility throughout the day, the current outlook is far more favourable than expected earlier in the week, with the prospect of conditions edging closer to good ground if significant rainfall stays away.

🏆THUNDERING ON

THUNDERING ON did this in the Oaks yesterday:

She won it as though she was running in a maiden full of non-triers. It was genuinely one of the best Oaks performances we've ever seen.

Those of you reading this and scoffing at that comment, ready to reel off a list of Oaks winners you think were better, just use your eyes. She put an Oaks field away on the bridle.

"But it was a weak renewal!" we hear you cry. No, it wasn't. The pedigrees were full of stamina and Classic influence, which already makes it a stronger race than some recent renewals. Take SNOWFALL's Oaks in 2021, where a daughter of KODI BEAR finished second lmao.

In racing, sometimes you have to trust what you're seeing rather than endlessly searching for reasons to dismiss it. We suspect there were plenty of people finding reasons to downplay FRANKEL while he was making top-class horses look ordinary too.

What THUNDERING ON did yesterday was special. Maybe the figures won't fully back it up yet, but visually it was exceptional.

We aren't going to let paralysis by analysis affect our appreciation of what we witnessed.

Love the horse.

Yesterdays win represented another major milestone for Joseph O’Brien, who, let’s not forget won our training performance award earlier this year for either Cheltenham or Aintree, which one we can’t remember.

Can JOB do the Oaks - Derby double!?

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

13.30 7F GROUP 3 TATTENHAM CORNER STAKES

Every one knows who NEVER SO BRAVE is - the horse who was winless since a bad handicap in ‘24 before going to Baldings and winning a Group 1 lol. Stoutey obviously didn’t care at the end. Makes you wonder how good DESERT CROWN could have been in different hands. Back to this lad, he’s had a run and should be wound up nicely for this. We think he’s versatile on all ground.

ALCANTOR is having his second run for Joseph O’Brien. He came from Fabre’s in France and we don’t know why he moved, but should prefer the quicker ground that what he’s been used to in France.

TEN BOB TONY was disappointing last time out but he did lose his shoe - so something happened. He’s got some proper form in the book and we feel a Group 3 could be within his reach.

WITNESS STAND as has hardly ever run on ground with cut in and we think he needs it! He is well at home in Group company and go very well here should he make the most of his stall to lead and then travel across to the stands rail after the bend. Billy on board should have done his homework.

POET MASTER needs to find a bit and probably needs better ground. Burke has been surprisingly easy to take on this season too.

The others shouldn’t be winning this.

Verdict: WITNESS STAND is a proper soft ground horse and can take advantage here with a prominent ride. He is a good ew bet at 8/1.

14.05 1M GROUP 3 PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKES

SPARKS FLY is the slop lover. Her owner Dave must be knackered from the rain dance. Stall 2 she’ll look to break well, lead and then get across after the bend to grab the rail which has so clearly been advantageous. Huge player if she’s right (never guaranteed being a filly!).

PINA SONATA needs better ground.

SHES PERFECT is that filly who should have won the French Guineas, remember? She’s out of a GALILEO mare which would mean she’s probably better on faster ground. If she’s back to her best, then she should be going close in this. but given she’s been injured, that is NO guarantee!

PACIFIC MISSION has very good form in the locker, namely her Donny run versus the likes of VENETIAN LACE et al.

The others really should be bigger.

Verdict: PACIFIC MISSION is on the up and would have been a bet on good ground but we think she could get stuck in the mud. On that basis, SPARKS FLY is the one to beat if conditions worsen.

14.40 1M 4F GROUP 1 CORONATION CUP

CALANDAGAN will love the mud. Every one saying he needs quick ground to win genuinely knows nothing about pedigree’s. The reason why CALANDAGAN has been beaten twice before in softer conditions is owed down the way he’s ridden, often cold out the back. THAT is why he has blots in his form book. Anyway, that time he got beat by ANMAAT a couple of years ago is still epic form.

JAN BRUEGHEL has beaten the fave before, in this race last year. The ground should be exactly the same this year so it really is the re-match! CALANDAGAN really should have gone past him last time and he looks a better horse now.

The rest should have no chance.

Verdict: Contrary to the belief of punters with extremely limited racing knowledge on X, CALANDAGAN will relish the ground and should win if not given too much to do. The only thing that will get him beat is the ride or his attitude. He needs to be closer to the pace and not let the front runners get away from him. He shoot kick on nicely in the long straight.

16.00 1M 4F GROUP 1 EPSOM DERBY

We will NOT be betting this race. It’s such a hard Derby with no real standout horse.

BENVENUTO CELLINI, PIERRE BONNARD, CHRISTMAS DAY and ACTION rep the mighty Ballydoyle with BENVENUTO CELLNI their number 1 with Moore booked. All of his dam side was fast and that would be a concern for today with the trip with cut in the ground. That said, he did look very good in the Vase:

Of the other BALLYDOYLE horses, PIERRE BONNARD has a stamina laden ped and should get the ground. For a long time, this lad was their idea of their Derby numero uno.

CHRISTMAS DAY will relish the step up trip given the way he stayed on the Dante. He could be Christmas comes early for his backers at a price.

ITEM won the Dante and looked despite being green! We think he needs better ground.

JAMES J BRADDOCK will love the mud. He’s actually a relation to THE REVEREND who is a proper stayer. If there is anyone to LOVE the trip today it’s this guy, the only question is if he is quick enough for it.

MATESE CROSS needs faster ground.

BAY OF BRILLIANCE is a half to Cheltenham winner ABSURDE. We just think he needs faster ground.

Of the rest, ANCIENT EGYPT is related to Group 1 heroine MIDDAY. She went on anything so this lad should be versatile too being by FRANKEL. He ha a lovely long stride and picks his legs up so the ground will be fine.

RBEL ROCKER will love love love the ground but shouldn’t be good enough.

The rest can’t win unless POKER decides to wake up and start paying off his 4m purchase fee lmao.

Verdict: We don’t know. Of the Ballydoyle horses, maybe CHRISTMAS DAY is the dark horse. Perhaps ANCIENT EGYPT is the player at 25/1. He has a huge action and is completely unexposed, so could be anything.

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