Equinties - Derby dangers

Author

BGP Capital
May 23, 2023

Equinties

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

He's a 3rd Baronet, trainer of over 2000 winners including last years L'Arc, old mentor to William Haggas and a fantastic story teller,

but for most of you reading this newsletter, the reason the name Sir Mark Prescott is so familiar to you is for his famous and oh so sexy handicap debutant winners.

(And yes, if the horse is well bred - we always back them. It's free money).

But why do some people hate the SMP spesh so much? Or worse, liken it to McNally's case!?

Let's look at McNally. Okay, the 12 year ban was harsh but the cheating and betting patterns evidenced by Horse Racing Ireland were profound. Changing ownership, stopping horses, laying and gambling - the case against McNally was long and damning. The yards actions deceived not only the handicapping system but also the betting public, and quite frankly no one stood a chance. Not unless you were 'in on it', which only a handful were.

Now let's look at what SMP does.

SMP's last two runners TRUE LEGEND and BRAVE KNIGHT both bagged their maiden victories on handicap debut, the former backing it up with another W only 10 days later.

7f, 7f, 7f is typically the pattern of distances SMP's horses run for the first time at 2 years old. He then puts them away for the winter and brings them back out for handicap debut off a low mark and over a considerably longer trip.

The horses Sir Mark buys are well bred stayers that need time. CAMELOT and SIR PERCY are the sires of this last two winners, they both won the Derby and their dam side brings even more stamina. It is literally impossible for them to have won over 6 or 7 furlongs. SMP is not stopping them, they just haven't got the pace to win. The trip hike is the plot, that's not cheating and that's why it's a masterclass, so remember:

The racing is shocking today so play the Fantasy. Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

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Now, let’s dive in.

Headline round up 

Jockey Club reacts

The Derby is less than two weeks away and with the impending doom of Animal Rising protests at the forefront of our issues, the Jockey Club decided yesterday to take action as they lodged an application for a high court injunction against the threat of disruption. 

Included in the injunction submitted were 118 pages of social media posts made by Animal Rising explicitly advertising the disruption at the Derby Festival and JCR has spent an extra £150k on security for the two-day event. Thorough work. 

Obviously no one wants the Derby interrupted but tbf to Animal Rising, thier little festival outside the grounds sounds quite fun if @honestfrank tweet is anything to go by. All I'm reading is 'race' and you know what that means... GAMBLING!

Out Riffa 

Long-time Irish 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite, AL RIFFA, was ruled out of Saturday’s Curragh feature contest yesterday after suffering a small setback. 

Trainer Joseph O’Brien is keen not to “take the chance” on his seasonal outing and races in the summer are still being aimed for if “all going well” – that doesn’t sound amazingly promising. 

Of the horses who could go (CHALDEAN is not one of them), NOSTRUM is 12/1, GALERON is 10/1, and HIGH ROYAL is 8/1.

Despite this news, the Curragh’s big Classic weekend could be set to receive a boost on Sunday as VADENI is set to be supplemented for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. 

Georges Rimaud, the Aga Khan’s racing and breeding manager in France, has the intention to pay the €45,000 fee to get him in their Group 1 winner in the race. 

At the time of writing, BAY BRIDGE is the 7/4 favourite, ADAYAR is 3/1 alongside LUXEMBOURG, and ANMAAT is 5/1. 

Dance to the tune of the FCA

And finally, horses previously owned by John Dance, the wealth manager under investigation by the Financial Conduct Authority, will be able to run again, the BHA confirmed yesterday. 

The BHA and FCA made a deal yesterday to release funds from Dance to allow to cover racing fees related to the horses and those horses will be able to run now under the colours of Coverdale Stud or Titanium Racing, though prize money will be seized by the court. 

This news must come as a big relief for trainer James Horton who is retained by Dance and now the Middleham man has made entries for the first time in a long time for Sunday’s racing. 

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

Nothing of note out today.

Risk on

Unless a message comes through, this is probably the only bet of the day:

17.15 LITTLE TIGER

Continuing with the 'trip hike' theme with this one, his dam is a half to ARREST and other stayers - so this step up will more than suit! Ironically this lads last race was with SMP's TRUE LEGEND, lol, and this looks equally as 'plotty'.

Trainer's last two runners won at massive odds so yard is firing.

Interestingly, connections had LITTLE TIGER's younger brother pulled from the foal sales last year, presumably because ARREST had just come 2nd in a Gr1 in France so probably wanted to wait for the yearling sales with the nice page boosts from ARREST and hopefully a win from LITTLE TIGER too!

Been told Simcock's has a lot in hand and that looks equally plot like but the step up looks like a last resort having been found in the market lto and then finishing no where.

Half bet ew at 10's on LITTLE TIGER and the small stake hedge is Simcocks at 4's.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens.

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here:

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