Equinties - context is key

Gm Equinauts

There is a truculent nature to Racing X which, through emotionally charged opinion, is generally quite quick to box horses into the binary categories of excellent or bloody useless.

Horse racing is an emotional game, as are most things when money is involved, and as such reactions or opinion can be quick to the fore with a distinct lack of context.

Enter PALLADIUM, the million pounds horse who, despite winning well, became the butt of many jokes online yesterday (thank god he can’t read them!).

Punters and fans, seemingly still love drunk from LULAMBA’s electric debut, were very fast to crab his run on the basis he didn’t win on two legs while smoking a pipe.

Punters and fans would do well to take a step back, breathe and provide a bit of rational context to his performance, or any performance for that matter. A considered approach over a hot-headed opinion blinkered by dopamine (or lack of) can surely only improve your critical analysis when it comes to form.

It is okay be fairly neutral about a horse or their performance too, you know.

You’re not going to either be very happy or very unhappy about every single important horse, especially in jumps racing, and yet there seems to be an aura online that we must always make a decisive decision. That’s wrong and it will hurt you over time.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

EXPENSIVE WIN

PALLADIUM, the most expensive jumps horse ever sold at a public auction, won on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon yesterday and people didn’t like it because he didn’t win easily enough.

We the thought his performance was good! Okay it wasn’t as visually exciting as stablemate LULAMBA’s sparkling debut but let’s provide that all important context.

Firstly, they bought a stallion for a million quid, not a race horse! It’s a business deal and if he does anything remotely useful over hurdles, they’ll be paid back in a few years, easily.

Secondly, let’s look at him as a racehorse. He has the engine, that’s undeniable, but luckily he can jump too! He got in tight to a few obstacles, we’d actually be more complimentary than most about his jumping, but go back and watch how he jumped the final couple – he was quite nice over them.

And, as we pointed out on our X account @equinties, the second, WOLF MOON, is a half-brother to REDEMPTION DAY meaning, despite his 50/1 position in yesterday’s market, he could be anything.

We’re quick to dampen spirits when it’s justified, but yesterday was a nice first outing over hurdles, and his ability will be tested again before a run in the Triumph Hurdle, the race his owner (Lady Bamford) sponsors.

Henderson said: "There's a sense of relief I suppose but he was big and bold at some of his hurdles and he just enjoyed it. He was in front probably longer than we were planning on but he showed his class and I'm really pleased.

"Hopefully he'll go to the Triumph Hurdle but before you know it he'll be back on the Flat as he's a Group 1 winner with a stallion's pedigree. The consensus afterwards was to give him another run, which will likely be the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton on February 22.

"If he and Lulamba have to run against each other at some point then they will have to, but we're keeping all options open."

Ultimately, because of his future stallion prospects and his owner, Lady Bamford, we’d make it a strong chance that he runs in the Triumph Hurdle.

A CHANGING DIVISION

National Hunt Racing is a funny game sometimes. There’s plenty of talk on Racing X about Cheltenham Festival certainties (classic) and plenty have named TEAUPOO as one of them in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

TEAHUPOO, a horse who was soundly beaten by LOSSIEMOUTH over 2m4f in December while running to an RPR of 149, is apparently a certainty for the Stayers’ Hurdle. This says two things. The Stayers’ Hurdle division is weak, and Racing X has little to no imagination sometimes.

That first point could be changing based on a couple of recent performances. The most recent stab at the Stayers’ Hurdle division came yesterday from ROCKY’S DIAMOND in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle.

It’s hard to knock the performance too much, especially considering that was his sixth-ever run at the age of five. He basically made all, travelled well, jumped slickly, and found plenty for pressure. That’s plenty of boxes ticked, and the field in behind were no mugs. Not only has he become a player for Cheltenham, but he gives a direct form boost to HOME BY THE LEE – a 15/2 shot for the Stayers’ – having finished nearly 10 lengths behind him in the Grade 1 Savills Hurdle. SANDOR CLEGANE, the fourth, was also 13 lengths behind HOME BY THE LEE at Christmas. So, just like that, two players have been created for the Stayers’ Hurdle.

In March, they will be race-fit and will have the benefit of standard campaigning compared to Elliott’s different style of things for TEAHUPOO. Furthermore, it’s not just the Irish who have up-and-coming horses – the Brits have one who could hit the frame.

LUCKY PLACE is a massive player. He was tipped up by Mick Fitzgerald at the start of the season as a Sevenbarrows horse to follow and confirmed that high appraisal nicely by winning a top quality Relkeel Hurdle on New Years Day.

GOWEL ROAD could boost LUCKY PLACE’s form line this week and the highly touted SALVER, who was in contention in the Relkeel before falling, ran a good race at Windsor behind NEMEAN LION to give the form a nice boost as well. So, is TEAHUPOO a certainty? We don’t think so just yet!

WEATHER PLAYS PART

Has Storm Eowyn just cemented LOSSIEMOUTH’s place in the Champion Hurdle?

It’s been well-documented that LOSSIEMOUTH’s potential Champion Hurdle bid has been planned out for two years. Ever since she won the Triumph, the plan was to go Mares’ Hurdle and then Champion Hurdle.

Rich Ricci is a fairly game man who doesn’t back down from a challenge, and Willie Mullins ain’t shy to serve it up when he can.

But, we put up an idea earlier in the week that surrounded LOSSIEMOUTH’s potential participation in tomorrow’s Unibet Hurdle. It was basically win or get close and she runs in the Champion Hurdle, anything less and she’ll be off to the Mares’ Hurdle. It made sense at the time, but travel complications with Storm Eowyn and, we’re sure, other reasons have meant that the reigning Mares’ Hurdle champion will stay at home for the time being.

On the decision, Willie Mullins said: "I just thought that we've been preparing for two years for the Champion Hurdle, and I wasn't sure about a trip across the Irish Sea given the weather is closing in and the forecast. Also the travel complications, which we didn't need. She'll stay at home, and I'm happy to go to Leopardstown with her."

So now, LOSSIEMOUTH will head to the Irish Champion Hurdle where she’ll at least get to take on her stablemate STATE MAN. Although it’s sad not to see her at Prestbury Park this weekend, there is a silver lining - one would hope that she either wins or runs well at Leopardstown next week, and the key thing is she hasn’t taken on CONSTITUTION HILL again. Yes, we like to see big clashes away from the festival, but her not taking on Le Freak again until the big day in March will create anticipation like no other.

All in all, lovely stuff.

RISK ON

The ew plays delivered positive yield yesterday. Today we like:

13.15 KAP VERT

Our betting theme of the week has been dirty ew’s on short prices and this lad fits the bill at 4/1. Pauling’s yard has come off the boil a bit and if there was ever a chance to turn over a 4/11 shot, it could be today with KAP VERT who looks next best and will love the mud. Hobbs won this race with his last runner in it 5 years ago to boot.

14.40 NATIVE APPROACH & 15.50 WEST ACRE

Both over in Meydan. We’ll play a good single on NATIVE APPROACH and then use him to lever WEST ACRE - both expected to win.

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