Equinties - the Dante

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

MARSHMAN well held. INFINITE COSMOS well beat. CARAGIO, well...sh*t! Yesterday's preview of day 1 of York looked bleak af, on the newsletters one year anniversary no less!

Until this:

Ignoring the Burke hype, the drift and all the other messages flying round, MON NE SLIEVE was picked out on blood only and adds to the list of winners our new feature 'Young Blood' has highlighted since inception.

Emotional chimp in the cage and confidence in the process high, day 2 is looking good.

But first, competition time.

COMPETITION

We've got merch in the pipe line. Want an EQUINTIES branded cap? If we hit 400 stables in the BGP League, we'll giving away 5 caps to the top 5 players in the BGP FANTASY LEAGUE.

We didn't hit 400 stables yesterday but given the racing was so tough, we're sending one out to yesterday's winner - please dm the Intern @bgpintern. 

Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

The Oaks looking fire 

Day one at York was a tough betting prospect across the card, however, that didn’t stop some of the performances from being electric. 

AZURE BLUE sprung a small surprise in the Duke Of York Clipper Stakes although a few didn’t turn up and the race was tainted by the sad demise of CREATIVE FORCE – our thoughts are with all connections.

With the mood a little somber and race fans needing a pick me up, Frankie arrived.

By FRANKEL out of a Group 2-placed mare in DREAM PEACE, the John & Thady Gosden filly SOUL SISTER was unloved in the market at 18/1, but she travelled with confidence into the race and never looked back to beat market principles NOVAKAI and INFINITE COSMOS comfortably. 

Having been 50/1 prior to the race, she is now 5/1 for the Epsom Oaks next month and it looks like that is where she will be heading as Frankie Dettori is keen to get back on her for the first Classic at Epsom this season. 

Is SOUL SISTER you Oaks winner?

BIG RACE PREVIEW 

14.25 Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes

The first Group of the day is for fillies and there are some interesting angles into the race, most of all with the favourite, FREE WIND. 

She was brought back into training for Group 1 black type last year and the same has been done this season, however she had an interrupted campaign and is looking to have a few more consistent runs this year. 

She is very good based on her Lancashire Oaks win and she has proven her ability when off a break. 

The one to fear from a favourite backers perspective is ARISTIA for Richard Hannon, a Grade 1 winner in France.

She was second to NASHWA at Goodwood, form that has worked out well since her second in two Group 1s and DREAMLOPER’s (5th) Group 1 win nto. She is dangerous fto. 

Of the rest, it will be tough for them to get into it. 

STAY ALERT has Oisin Murphy in the saddle, a good appointment, however, her form doesn’t stack up to this level - she is open to progression. 

Verdict: ARISTIA's form at York is Group 1 level. She's had the measure of ALPINE STAR and THUNDER KISS here in the past, not to mention the daughter of STARSPANGLEDBANNER is a Gr 1 winner herself in France. She's the ew play against the odd on fave.

15.35 The Dante

A group 2 in its own right but generally regarded as a Derby Trial. DESERT CROWN won this last year before capturing the Epsom Classic. At the moment The Derby is quite a murky market, so who will put their hand up for a place?

EPICTETUS bumped into AUGUSTE RODIN and SILVER KNOTT as a 2yo but made a successful seasonal debut in the Blue Riband Stakes at Epsom. Frankie in the saddle is always a bonus but he could be over hyped. 

PASSENGER, CANBERRA LEGEND and CONTINUOUS come here lightly raced and as such are unexposed. PASSENGER has been supplemented for the race and is trained by Stoutey who won it last year, but stall 1 would be concerning.

It's interesting Stoutey has supplemented him today (£14k), he must think a fair bit of him. He's been quite punchy recently running INFINITE COSMOS back 12 days after her maiden win and CIRCLE OF FIRE after an 8 day turnaround - is he rushing the, to get to a Derby or Oaks trial?

CANBERRA LEGEND won the Fielden Stakes and there is a feeling that a lot more could come from him.

CONTINUOUS looks best watched although the Moore/O’Brien combo always gives us shivers. 

WHITE BIRCH is bred by Cheveley Park Stud and won the Gr3 Ballysax last time out. More improvement is needed but he would have learnt plenty from that run. 

THE FOXES and FLYING HONOURS battled it out in the Gr2 Royal Lodge last year, THE FOXES winning coming out top. But does he win the war? FLYING HONOURS is from the family of Derby winner LAMMTARRA but he’s been on the sidelines for 222 days. 

Verdict: THE FOXES is well named, he looks an important horse for King Power. The winner of a Group 2 as a 2yo, and although he got beat on his seasonal debut the step up in trip will be a positive. 

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

16.45 York

CUBAN THUNDER by PROFITABLE o/o a mare who won at 2. Cost 150,000gns as a yearling. Loose moving horse as a yearling, he should improve nicely from his debut and is the one they all have to aspire to beat. 

IMPRESSIVE ACT is by DUBAWI o/o DABYAH who was Gr1 placed at 2. The mare was a very good racehorse but is struggling to produce a winner as she has 2 foals of racing age and both haven’t reached the racecourse yet. However that’s not to say she won’t ever produce a winner of course and this lad is a nice individual who could be her first, he cost 650,000 as a yearling. 

EMPEROR OF ROME. We can’t help but think Aidan is using him as a dial on his other 2yo’s. Of course this son of NO NAY NEVER is entitled to improve from his debut where he was second but the winner from that race didn’t do the form any favours at Chester. 

AIR FORCE ONE cost 600,000gns as a yearling, like all the ones Richard Knight bought last year for Saleh Al Homaizi he was way overpriced. By STARSPANGHLEDBANNER o/o a mare who won the Lily Agnes (ran last week at Chester) in 2019. One to watch fto. 

VARDEN is by BUNGLE IINTHEJUNGLE and cost 65,000 as a yearling, dam was 4th in a listed race at 2 so showed a good level of form. Trainer won the 2yo race yesterday with a newcomer but that horse was a breeze up buy. 

SUE’s LITTLE ANGEL was a €115,000 yearling, by DARK ANGEL o/o a mare who won fto as a 2yo and then was 3rd in a listed race on only her second start, she didn’t improve from that initial display of talent but comes from a good family being a half sister to dual Gr2 winning 2yo including a win at Royal Ascot and Gr1 placed SIGNORA CABELO. 

Verdict: CUBAN THUNDER has race experience which is an important advantage at York in 2yo races. He made a taking debut at HQ where he broke poorly, ran on the outside of the field and finished well. He should improve nicely from that. He might prefer a bit of cut but PROFITABLE did finish 2nd in the Kings Stand on rattling and CT should handle it today. The third from lto has since won at Chester in stylish fashion so I think the form is strong. If he wins, look out for FLAG OF ST GEORGE in the 17.15 later. 

Risk on

BGP Capital eyes will be firmly on MONDAMMEJ in the York first. He is a half brother to one of BGP Capital fillies running off 7lbs below his last peak official rating of 104. Hopefully he can add further boosts to her page as a broodmare prospect. Woof.

As for Risk On, we're playing half bets on the above 3 preview horses as well as:

17.20 LAND LEGEND

Blood bet here. Ignore the drift, that's because Johnston's has been found in the market. It's a competitive race but this horse could be very nice. He's a big strong colt by GALILEO (his progeny are hard) and is from the direct family of ZOFFANY. Won so easily on debut, so should only come on for that and the step up in trip will on be a positive. He's a good bet ew play.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: