Equinties - Dancing to Epsom

Author

BGP Capital
May 20, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Tomorrow, Epsom hosts the Derby media day where trainers will take their entrants and hopefuls to feel the historic turf under their hooves ahead of the big day.

The race looks wide open this year. An uncertain favourite whose main protagonist has been withdrawn. It’s almost inevitable a big price winner will take glory.

Will it be a horse we already know so well?

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

FILLY WITH POTENTIAL 

DANCING RAIN is proving to be a mega babe broodmare for Darley. Bought for an eye M-watering 4,000,000gns in 2013, off the back of winning an Epsom Oaks and a German Oaks as well as the Fillies and Mares Group 1 on Champions Day.

Her amazing racing career is backed up with a formidable band of children. MAGIC LILY won at Gr2 level and was placed in Gr1 company as a 2yo. JALMOUD was placed in a Gr2 in Saint Cloud.

And now, DIAMOND RAIN looks like she has the most potential of all of them. She won the 17.15 at Newbury, the last race on the card for Charlie Appleby. Previous winners include; subsequent Gr1 fillies WARM HEART, NASHWA, ESHAADA, SEA OF CLASS and VOLUME.

The Ribblesdale or the Irish Oaks may be options for this daughter of SHAMARDAL who could go to the very top of the game.

FAT GIRL

In the first Group 1 for the older horses of the UK Flat season, AUDIENCE caused a big surprise in the Lockinge Stakes for John & Thady Gosden in the second-string Cheveley Park Stud silks… we said it would be a shock if he won!

Quite simply, Rab Havlin rode them to sleep as he got his sectionals bang on from the front…. Pretty good from a glorified work rider. This idea is backed up by the run of CHARYN as he was sat prominently – though still a few lengths adrift – and yet couldn’t catch the runaway leader.

However, the post-script from the Lockinge surrounded the Gosdens, though it may not have been for the right reasons.

In a post-race interview on ITV, John Gosden said that INSPIRAL – the 2/1 favourite – “needed this race to bring her on for Ascot”, something he didn’t let on in his pre-race comments.

This is slightly naughty as there’s an argument to say trainers should state these things pre-race. Then again, if people actually went racing and saw the horse in the pre’s they’d know she was carrying timber. First race of the season too… that’s why this newsletter didn’t tip her, Gosdens always need a run. If they win first time up, they’re typically a very good horse.

Looking ahead to the future, INSPIRAL could step up in trip to the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Frankie once told Gosden they had her trip wrong her whole life. That said, the m Queen Anne Stakes is still on the agenda (as it is for AUDIENCE as well).

DANCING ALL THE WAY TO EPSOM

Over the last few days, the Epsom Derby picture took a bit of a battering depth-wise as Charlie Appleby’s ARABIAN CROWN was ruled out of the race.

After this piece of news, it raised the question as to whether it’s worth looking further down the field for the potential winner. If you’re someone for doing that, then DANCING GEMINI may be a horse you’ve landed on after his second in the French Guineas last weekend.

Trainer Roger Teal knows when one is good enough for a Classic as he trained TIP TWO WIN to finish second at 50/1 in the 2018 2000 Guineas, and although he’s never tried the trip of 1m4f, he hopes his son of CAMELOT would take to it well if he runs.

"He's going to Epsom on Tuesday morning for a spin round and we'll make a decision then. We're undecided on which Derby to go for at the moment but we'll let him have a feel of Epsom, see what we think and we can make a decision after that.

"He's a nice relaxed horse and his pedigree suggests he'll stay [a mile and a half]. There's no guarantee with any animal, but it's more likely he will than he won't. His dad won the race and he's very similar to him. He's got good pace, like Camelot, and I watched a video of his dad winning [the Derby] the other day and you can see a lot of likenesses in the horse.

"Whether it's in the stars I don't know, but hopefully he will have come on for his run in France and we can see a couple of lengths' improvement."

He’s certainly a horse who holds ability, we know that because we gambled him last year.

In this years Derby you have to be taking on the favourite and there might not be a better option than Teal’s lad DANCING GEMINI. Let’s hope connections decide to run him… we’ll find out tomorrow but we would!

EYECATCHERS OF THE WEEKEND

EJAABIYAH – SATURDAY 17.15 NEWBURY

The Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury has produced some decent horses over the last few years, notably WARM HEART, NASHWA, BLUESTOCKING, and SEA OF CLASS.

The finale from Newbury on Saturday looked like a solid race, though one can argue that EJAABIYAH will be the horse to watch from the race.

She won by six lengths on debut and was making her first start of the season on the weekend.

She was well-backed before the off and looked smart to finish second as James Doyle kept it to hands-and-heels for the final half-a-furlong; he actually only used the whip twice and the first strike wasn’t too strong.

By FRANKEL, she is out of the Grade 1-winning mare ESTIJAAB (who is a full sister to the Grade 3 winner REMARQUE), so she is certainly exciting.

TOO FRIENDLY – SUNDAY 16.15 NEWMARKET

On two occasions this season, TOO FRIENDLY has been well-backed before the off but has failed to find the winners’ enclosure.

The first of which came in the Chester Cup where he failed to feature having tried to follow a very strong pace and the second occurred on Sunday when he was beaten by half-a-length.

The six-year-old dual-purpose gelding travelled like the winner but got a slightly below-par ride from Callum Sheppard – in a similar race over two miles, he should be winning soon.

RISK ON

Two nice prices jumpers today… ground the key, let’s hope they are the key.

14.43 PUDDLESINTHEPARK

Pure guess at pedigree here, we think he’s a good ground horse and can show up tonight finally getting his ground.

15.45 MIDNIGHT MIDGE

Same reasoning as above. He was one part of the 100/1 double we landed last year (people forget about that). Can go well today if, big if, ground is true good.

Very small 25/1 ew double.

Follow @normduncsbgp on X, he has a bet later.