Equinties - dancing to the double

Gm Equinauts

The Craven has historically been used as a great first meeting to prep or introduce young horses to the test of the international stage. As such it is often wise to bet the horses who have either race fitness or track experience on their side. A case in point being TEN BOB TONY and BOILING POINT who each came to the fore yesterday in the Conditions Stakes. Unfortunately we bet BOILING POINT who couldn’t get past the brave front running TEN BOB TONY but it’s no coincidence that in a race full of horses coming off a break, it was the only two with course experience who filled the places.

The Craven also likes to drop a few clues for the futures markets, the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes providing the girls with a nice stepping stone (and that crucial track experience) towards the main event, the 1000 Guineas. CACHET the most recent filly to do the Nell Gwyn/Guineas double and today, DANCE SEQUENCE tests her credentials for the famous double.

The 1000 Guineas market has been continuously changing shape. After the news about OPERA SINGER missing the race last month, another single-figure-priced runner for the contest is set to miss the second Classic of the season as ONE LOOK is likely to be saved for the Irish equivalent. 

Having been a general 8/1-shot for Newmarket, trainer Paddy Twomey is keen to save her for the Curragh, the same track she won at on debut when scorching to success in the Goffs Million. He said: “She'll stay in Ireland and either go for the Athasi Stakes or more likely the Cornelscourt Stakes at Leopardstown with a view to going to the Irish Guineas. I'd like to educate her a bit more and don't want to land her into the English Guineas just now.

"I'm not in a rush to head off to England and give her a grueller. I've taken steps with her and I'd like to take the next step with her career in mind. There are only 13 Group 1s in Ireland and I'd like to win one of them." 

The 1000 Guineas market is now swinging heavily in the favour of DANCE SEQUENCE – watch her in the 15.35 today.

Don’t miss it, now let’s dive in.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.25 LISTED FIELDEN STAKES

NARKEZ makes the voyage over from France, trained by the little maestro Andre Fabre who says he has no concerns about the ground and reckons the extra furlong will be in his favour. Course form is the only worry but Monsieur Fabre always means business.

EL CORDOBES cost a whopping 2 million at the sales. He won at Kempton in January and this is a step up but bred the way he is and coming from Appleby’s hotel he should be taken seriously.

JUSTIFY has done well crossed with GALILEO, and this lad, GASPER DE LEMOS is out of ALICE SPRINGS full sister HENCE, who herself was a 2.1million guineas yearling. Second to ARABIAN CROWN in the Gr3 Zealand at Newmarket. Course form and a drop in trip look enticing, the form has been franked with Dallas Star this year.

The highest rated AMBIENTE FRIENDLY will appreciate the step up to a 1m1f. Being o/o a PIVOTAL mare he won’t mind any cut in the ground, if there is any. Course form secured when 3rd in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes.

JAYARBE and NATIVE AMERICAN both ran in the gr1 Lagadere last year, and didn’t do that well. Today, going out on a limb, may well be the same.

CAVIAR HEIGHTS is a potential Derby horse reading the Karl Burke stable tour. He’ll have to improve to win this and Sheikh Obaid will be hoping he ‘runs on’ in the last furlong.

WHIP CRACKER has a smashing page. Full of German staying blood, o/o a SEA THE MOON mare he should love the trip and Richard Hughes is in banging form at the moment.

Verdict: Andre Fabre is literally Napoleon! NARKEZ is bred on the highly successful SIYOUNI/ GALILEO cross. Weirdly he is in the same stall as INTELLO who won this race for Fabre 10 years ago. 10/3 could is either telling or big.

15.00 GROUP 3 EARL OF SEFTON STAKES

£85,000 is on offer for the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes today and Godolphin could be taking a good portion of that home if OTTOMAN FLEET brings his Meydan form to the table. He had a break after his third in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes in June 2023 to attack Meydan head-on, and the form of his runs out there is decent. He is race-fit and has a strong chance to win here.

ROYAL RYHME improved from being beaten off 85 in a Haydock handicap in April to finishing the season with a good fifth in the Group 1 Champion Stakes behind KING OF STEEL. The ground is important to this lad so he might not have his edge on a ‘quick’ good.

EMBESTO is a ROARING LION colt out of the Group 3-winning DIBAJJ and he finished the season with a close fourth in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein. 

He’s stepping up to 1m1f today, but he is out of a five-furlong winner and most of his family ran over the shorter distances, so it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with this?

REGAL REALITY is a 9yo now, so he is almost old enough to smoke, but bits of form put him right there with a good chance. He gave 3lbs away to MIGHTY ULYSSES and 9lbs away to EMBESTO and he was only beaten by half-a-length – now they are on level terms, so there’s an argument to suggest he can reverse that form.

HI ROYAL represents the Classic form of last season as he was second to CHALDEAN in the 2000 Guineas and then finished third to PADDINGTON in the Irish 2000 Guineas. 

The form of that Guineas hasn’t worked out too well and he bombed out on his last three runs of the season, so he has a bit to prove here.

THE FOXES also represents the Classic form having finished fifth in the Derby behind AUGUSTE RODIN, so on that form, he should have a chance. He also beat CONTINUOUS – a subsequent St Leger winner – in the Dante, so maybe he prefers to perform at his best towards the start of the season.

Verdict: The weather has been more like Aintree in January than Newmarket in Spring. Horses can knocked backwards depending on the sun, or lack of it! The past couple of years we have supported Charlie Appleby’s runners hard (Charlie is currently operating at a 35% sr but with 6 2nd’s in the past 14 days, that % could easily improve!). Most, if not all the Godolphin runners sun themselves in Dubai. It’s highly likely DANCE SEQUENCE has enjoyed a boot camp there and we know OTTOMAN FLEET has been kept busy, he will be bang there today, just like last year when we backed him, however the money for EMBESTO is too worrying to play this race.

15.35 GROUP 3 NELL GWYNN

DANCE SEQUENCE has been supported through the winter for the 1000 Guineas. By DUBAWI o/o a STREET CRY mare from the immediate family of NATHANIEL… her family gets better with age and she looked good last year winning the Oh So Sharp Stakes when we backed her.

MATRIKA looked really good on her last run as a 2yo running away with the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes. She hit the line really well that day so you’d be hopeful she’ll stay 7f today but it won’t be easy at this track. Market to guide.

TRUE CYAN made a really promising debut over course and distance. Tricky to know how good the form is but couldn’t have done it more impressively. Fact finding mission for connections today. 

SPIRITUAL won on debut and then was 4th in a hot Rockfel Stakes (Gr2), the third franked the form and is at the head of the market for the 1000 Guineas. She made the pace that day and that looked to suit so we’re sure Kieran will do the same again.

PRETTY CRYSTAL by DUBAWI had a really solid campaign last year. Although she was close she did look held in the Gr3 company she contested. Connections hoping she has strengthened over the winter.

BORN TO ROCK made an eye-catching debut but couldn’t back it up in the Dragon Stakes against the boys. We haven’t seen her since July last year so best watched today.

GUSHING GOLD gave her owner plenty of days out last year as a 2yo. All being well she has trained on but presumably this is to see where she stands.

Verdict: These trials can be quite tricky as a lot can improve over the winter and can be a completely different proposition as a 3yo than as a 2yo. As boring as it is, the most likely winner is DANCE SEQUENCE who will be even shorter for the 1000 Guineas should she oblige today. Could be one for the perms.

RISK ON

No luck yesterday as we made the unusual error of going for big priced glory instead of hitting singles.

We’ll follow our new contributor Norm in with this fancy ew. Norm is well over £30 up to £1 level stakes in just 9 bets (that’s why we started working with him). He won’t tweet much but helps with our content when he’s not on the golf course or glued to crypto charts.

Plus we’ll play:

13.30 ENCANTO BRUNO

Cromwell has loved raiding Cheltenham this year and this lad is top on figures and best suited to this good ground.

14.25 NARKEZ

For the reasons in the preview above. Guessing on French form so a small play at 3/1. 4.4 on the exchange to make your own ew with top 3 paying 1.8. That’s what we have done.

There might be another bet posted later on X @equinties.

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