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Equinties - dancing diva
BGP Capital
November 13, 2025
Gm Equinauts
The rain is looming over Cheltenham and we are in for a slop fest!
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
DANCING DIVA
It’s fair to say that last season wasn’t straightforward for DIVA LUNA. She was poor first time out, then poor when winning, and poor again after that, and then her season best was in the hottest race she contested. And even then Pauling admitted she was off!
He blamed a season long issue with her track wash - basically she had a bug all year.
Coming into this season, Ben Pauling has been openly adamant that she is better than last year, and that combined with better health, fences would be the making of her .
After yesterday’s successful Bangor chasing debut, it seems like he was spot on as she absolutely danced in!
She was very good, and she’s now 16/1 for the Mares’ Chase, which seems reasonable.
She looked to jump most of her fences very well, and she led from the front like the best horse in the race. If you backed her, it’s almost like you didn’t have a moments worry.
So, with a view to the future, this was a very pleasing chasing debut. We will caveat this, however. Clearly, QUEENS GAMBLE is not as good as she either once was or was once thought of, and the jury is still out on her as a chaser. It must be said that the same jury is still out for JOYEUSE as a chaser as well who took a chance at a couple, but, generally didn’t look to have the same scope as the winner. She can be forgiven if she tries fences again for there is the excuse she might have needed it.
So, looking at those two obvious things from DIVA LUNA’s race yesterday, maybe the form of the performance will be exaggerated going forwards due to the manner of her victory? This should be just in the back on your mind going forward just to play devils advocate.
Post-race, Pauling said: "In my wildest dreams, I didn’t expect to see her win like that. That’s a big result and we’ll get her home so we can look to the future.
"I was very nervous today because I wanted to see what I believed she was, but we’ve hopefully seen that.
"When she finished third in the Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham she was weak and never right. You doubt yourself because I always thought she was the best filly I’ve trained, and even maybe one of the best horses I’ve trained."
Ben has always been so, so bullish on her, and that line about being one of the best horses he’s ever trained backs this up. She is only six still, so there could be more to come in this new discipline as she matures fully and a test between her, DINOBLUE, BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD, ONLY BY NIGHT, and JADE DE GRUGY could be quite the race come March.
As for THE JUKEBOX MAN, Pauling revealed that it could be the Graduation Chase on Betfair Chase Day for him rather than the 1965 Chase at Ascot. Interesting.
CHASING HYPE
Speaking of horses who are loved by their trainers, Lucinda Russell was so sweet on DERRYHASSEN PADDY last season after he won at Windsor, and he was beaten on chasing debut yesterday.
Now, he is entitled to come on for the run, and Russell’s horses really gave been doing this, but it’s hard to be totally on side with Lucinda’s infatuation for him after yesterdays performance. For a horse who is this big three-mile chaser in the making, he didn’t seem the most fluent at his fences, and he actually looked a bit slow through the air. Furthermore, when push came to shove, he found very little.
Now, absolutely he can strip (a whole lot) fitter for that and be seen in a better light next time, especially on a flatter track and over further. But you’d be brave to back him given what we saw yesterday.
That said, all being considered, by no means would we give up on him. A horse of his size will simply get better in time.
Anyway, on the winner SIXMILEBRIDGE, his victory comes with flaws given the errors from the other two he raced. Fergal O’Brien said post-race that you could go up or down in trip (helpful), but he doesn’t strike us as a stamina-loving three-miler. He’s rated 142, and he surely won’t go up too much for that (if any). Maybe they work back from the Jack Richards Nov Handicap Chase at the Fez? He does like Cheltenham, and 2m4f is probably his trip, especially in the mud.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on these two going forward, but only to see if our thought process is working out or not.
SECOND GUESSING MULLINS
We mentioned yesterday that sadly STATE MAN is out for the season, and it is truly gutting news.
The horse is a bit of a legend, isn’t he? For so long, he’s just turned up to Grade 1s, won, and gone home. Even when people deserted him at Cheltenham, he turned up and had one hoof on the Champion Hurdle trophy before falling at the last but made amends at Punchestown afterwards.
When the news initially came out, Willie Mullins said: “Sadly State Man has suffered a tendon injury on the gallops here. He’ll definitely be out for the rest of the season.”
Tendon injuries are horrible. So many horses fail to come back from a serious tendon injury, and by the sounds of Mullins’ last sentence (“definitely”), it sure seems to us like he may not be seen on the racetrack again, which would suck balls.
On what this means for his Champion Hurdlers this season, Mullins continued: "We'll obviously have to reshuffle our pack now and I'm not sure yet who will go to the Morgiana instead of State Man. We have quite a few entries in there and we'll have to see who fits the race best over the next week or two. There are a few decisions that will need to be made soon."
So, now, the next question is who replaces him as Mullins’ number one? Racing X has been trying to work it out all day, and so will we. We think this is fairly easy to have a stab at. Unfortunately for us British fans, one would assume that ANZADAM’s plan for the Fighting Fifth gets pulled in favour of the Morginana, as we’re sure that LOSSIEMOUTH will go back for the Hatton’s Grace.
Then, why not bring ANZADAM over for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton while LOSSIEMOUTH locks down the Neville Hotels Hurdle (Grade 1 at Leopardstown on December 29th)? It really should be these two sent forward as the Champion Hurdle horses for Closutton this season, and we wouldn’t be overly warm on sending KOPEK DES BORDES or SALVATOR MUNDI down this route, to be honest. Both were a bit sketchy at their hurdles, but their talent got them through it last season.
Would it get them through Champion Hurdle-type races? No, even if Mullins did fleetingly mention the Champion Hurdle for KOPEK after he won the Supreme.
Until Christmas, that is surely the plan for ANZADAM and LOSSIMOUTH, right? Trying to work out whether LOSSIEMOUTH goes to the Champion or the Mares at the stage of the season is pretty futile given Mullins’ habit of last minute decision decision making, but we’d guess that LOSSIEMOUTH will aim to retain her title. Willie once revealed it was always easy for Townend to choose between STATE MAN and LOSSIEMOUTH should they have met at the Festival, Paul wouldn’t have batted an eyelid tacking up STATE MAN. That indicates to us they think LOSSIEMOUTH is a mares only horse and that they’ll need another to replace STATE MAN.
And that could be ANZADAM should he be as good as the hype coming from the yard.
RISK ON
No bets today but for premium subscribers, we have looked ahead at the Cheltenham November meeting to eye up any over priced slop lovers.
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