Equinties -

Gm Equinauts

Honey moons and annual leave have got in the way on the newsletter today. A first for us, our apologies.

Let’s dive in asap.

You’ve all heard of Viagra. The one time, pump and dump pill. Lasts what - 30 minutes? Rubbish.

For the first time ever, Cialis is available without prescription. And boy it’s an absolute game changer.

Approved for medical use only in 2003, the French call it ‘le weekend’ because basically this thing lasts in your system for 3 day.

Boner’s on demand, for 3 three days!

Perfect for a weekend away when you know you’re going to need a little help.

Try it through UK MEDS, use discount code EQUINTIES10 and thank us later.

p.s none of this is medical advice but we’ve tried it…

HEADLINE ROUND UP

THE ANTE-POST KING

Over the last 48 hours, there has been a fair amount of rigmarole surrounding the King George on Boxing Day.

On Sunday, Paul Nicholls said BRAVEMANSGAME was as good as ever, and yesterday bookies received lots of money for Willie Mullins’ ALLAHO at the same time Brian Acheson of Robcour said they “haven't decided whether he'll [GERRI COLOMBE] go yet”.

But then, as of this morning, the update from Nick Luck is Kempton is still “Plan A”.

We love a good bit of drama in the lead-up to a big race (it’s what makes the race so good!) so here’s our long-range view at what could be a Christmas cracker.

Starting with ALLAHO, well known as a machine in his Ryanair-winning days. Honestly, there won’t be many horses getting to Mullins’ Punchestown Gold Cup winner if he is on song. But here’s the thing, he will genuinely have to be on song and shockingly, we’ve done some (bad) maths, albeit based on the subjective Racing Post Ratings, to show this.

Looking back on the last five King George winners, the average RPR works out at 174. ALLAHO’s best RPR is 180 from his demolition in the Punchestown Gold Cup. So, based on his best performance, ALLAHO will need to be up to 96.6% of that performance.

Furthermore, the last few King Georges have arguably been worse renewals than what we could have this year. People may say that ALLAHO is entitled to win this having beaten CLAN DES OBEAUX, a two-time winner, at Punchestown, but TORNADO FLYER beat CLAN by nine lengths in the 2021 King George and even SAINT CALVADOS finished third!

Behind him in the market is GERRI COLOMBE, a big talking horse for this year’s Gold Cup. In the past, proper staying horses similar in profile GERRI COLOMBE, have been beaten in this due to the test that the King George provides.

In 2021, MINELLA INDO and CHANTRY HOUSE both pulled up and even HMS SANTINI found it tough in 2020 having nearly won the Gold Cup nine months prior.

That being said, GERRI COLOMBE is probably a better horse than at least two of those, but you would have to worry if Kempton lacked rain over the next few days and it did turn into a speed test. He seemed to lack tactical speed in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase and that could see him on the back foot earlier than expected.

One horse who should be adapted to Kempton is THE REAL WHACKER. He has shown speed in his recent runs - notably when winning the Dipper on New Year’s Day - and he has no problem travelling at a good speed. If the effects of lto have all cleared (he was lame after the Paddy Power) then our Festival hero could be the EW play.

In all honesty, it will take a mammoth training performance from Paul Nicholls to get BRAVEMANSGAME back to his devastating best. He’s been a shadow of his former self recently.

We love the horse, you all know why - he was one who helped put us on the map. But his defeat at the hands of ROYALE PAGAILLE lto was a tough watch and in what is better company, it will need Paul, Harry Cobden, and BMG on their absolute A-game to win.

One could say that the very interesting outsider is HEWICK.

Apart from ROYALE PAGAILLE, he is the only other horse that has come out of the Gold Cup and won since. Furthermore, the Shark has kept him fresh for today and if the rain does stay away from Kempton, he will love any dryness in the ground.

Imagine if they all line up. They wouldn’t, would they?

THUNDER TO HURDLES

A return to hurdling could be on the agenda for THUNDER ROCK after he disappointed in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Despite a good amount of form in the book coming into the race, he failed to make it around Prestbury Park and trainer Olly Murphy admits he knew his fate after the first few fences.

Although connections will give him another pop over fences in a smaller field – and probably away from Cheltenham – he could return to hurdles if that goes wrong again.

Murphy said: "His runs at Cheltenham probably haven't been as good as everywhere else. The plan is to give him another run over fences, perhaps in calmer waters or in a smaller field. He'll have another chance. If he doesn't take to it again, he'll switch to hurdling."

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/switch-to-hurdling-could-be-an-option-for-thunder-rock-following-dismal-december-gold-cup-performance-aBM8Y8J0UDMT/

A FRENCH RAID

Yesterday, we spoke about how Nicky Henderson may miss the Tolworth – now known as the Grade 1 Tormby Novices’ Hurdle - depending on what decision is made over the next few days.

Well, trainers from not just the UK have seen this potentially easy Grade 1 and want to have a crack, which is exactly what French trainer Mickael Seror is planning to do with JULY FLOWER.

The four-year-old by PASTORIUS won a Grade 1 bumper as a three-year-old on just her second start before changing to the Henry de Bromhead stable for a tilt at the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree – won by DYSART ENOS – where she was well-beaten.

Since then, she has returned to Seror and won nicely in two hurdle races before being denied by LOSANGE BLEU in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud du Vivier in November.

JULY FLOWER will be Seror’s first runner in Britain when she lines up for the new Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle and the Chantilly-based trainer has confirmed she schooled over British hurdles last year when it looked like she might be sold.

Seror said: "She has a lot of natural speed and, when they go a decent gallop, can produce an impressive turn of foot. The way she ran down the horse of Monsieur Dubois was exceptional.

"This opportunity came up and it happens to be over 3,300 metres [2m1½f] rather than the 3,800m she has been running over, and I don’t have a real preference between the two. I didn’t want to be stepping her up in trip past 4,000 metres as she will have to in France next year, as I think she is better suited to a speed test like this."

Who knows what could turn up from the UK, but this confirmation certainly adds depth.

YOUNG BLOOD

BUMPER

This is a bad bad bumper. One not to take notes in bar note of the gamble. A repeat of last week…

TIGGA TIME was gambled lto before being a nr for you guessed it, old Sly Sandy who pulled a gamble last week and hacked up this week lol.

The only other dangers on blood are Nivens and Drinkwaters (as always, in our view).

Verdict: none of these horses will be ones to follow, leave.

TODAYS BEST STATS

No stats of note today.

RISK ON

We were a bad ride away from victory yesterday but was returned our stake money so no harm done.

We have a bet today, it will be posted to X late.