Equinties - the Craven

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Gm EquinautsOn a behavioral change basis, the 'chimp management' advice we give out is unparalleled in importance. No question.

The inability to cage the brains emotional chimp and stop betting is the single reason Denise Coates pays so much tax. Everyone bets too much, way too much.

But in terms of theory - theory being the reasoning behind the risk, I would go so far as to say that our new feature 'Young Blood' is perhaps the most important work we've ever produced. Genuinely.

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Now, let's dive tf in.

Headline roundup

Fergal and McPherson split 

Gloucestershire-based trainer Fergal O’Brien is set to split from his business partner Graeme McPherson in the summer as both will revert to training independently.

The pair joined forces 18 months ago and O’Brien has cited his record-breaking last two seasons to the success of the merger, however, logistical issues of the yards being 30 minutes away from each other is the reason why they are set to split.

O’Brien told the Racing Post: We thought the best way forward was to demerge and we’ll all go our own way, there’s been no falling out. I've a lot of respect for Graeme and all of his owners there. The plan for us is to build another barn at Ravenswell to accommodate everyone back here."

Nell Gwyn surprise

16/1 shot MAMMAS GIRL landed an impressive victory in yesterday’s Group 3 Nell Gwyn for Richard Hannon and Amo Racing as the HAVANA GREY filly flew up the nearside rail under Sean Levey to secure success.

She's by champion 2yo sire HAVANA GREY and is a half-sister to the once 110-rated MASTER OF WAR - but the chestnut swept past Godolphin’s FAIRY CROSS to win by an easy six lengths.

Now 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas, she will “come on massively” for the run and trainer Richard Hannon believes she will get a mile despite having plenty of speed in the pedigree.

Big race preview

Group 3 Craven Stakes 

The highlight race of this week’s Newmarket meeting is the Craven Stakes won last year by NATIVE TRAIL who would go on to finish second in the Guineas.

Godolphin are represented this year by MYSTERIOUS NIGHT, a horse who was third to PERSIAN FORCE last season before two wins abroad at the end of the campaign in France and Canada.

He lost fto last year and is coming into this fresh – his RPR of 111 from his Gr1 win in Canada lto looks good and should be there as long as the ground isn’t too soft.

The once-raced MOSTABSHIR is the sole Shadwell horse in the line-up following his win on the all-weather lto at Kempton in November.

This was a very good debut on the AW but as we saw with COPPICE in the Nell Gwyn, sometimes that form doesn’t translate onto the turf, so he will be an interesting addition to the race.

THE FOXES is one of the seasoned three-year-olds in the race having raced four times as a juvenile, finishing behind MYSTERIOUS NIGHT on debut last year.

He finished the season with two wins – the two horses he beat lto, DUBAI MILE and FLYING HONOURS, have both gone on to win a race since with the former having won a Group 1 over in France. That is good form.

Our view: see Risk ON

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

14.25 Newmarket

These days most horses have had a run at 2 but the Wood Ditton Maiden has always been used as a popular race to introduce unraced 3yo’s and Newmarket trainers like Gosden, Haggas, Bin Suroor, Varian and Appleby have all won this in the last 10 years.

(Worth noting now, drawn high is an advantage here).

There are three pedigree's to watch in this race, two who bookend the market at 6/4 and 40/1!

(Stall 9) NEW BUSINESS is by SEA THE STARS, and was bought for 240,000gns. All quality in the pedigree, his mother is a sister to Group 1 winner SEAL OF APPROVAL and to the dam of HURRICANE LANE. The money keeps coming for this horse, 9/4 into 6/4 overnight. The marketing is talking... it's SHOUTING!

(8) ORANGE N BLUE is out of a SEA THE STARS mare called FASHION DARLING, bought for 80,000 gns. This is a very nice family and Coolmore bought his brother last year for 269,000gns! This lads mother is a full sister to the dam of MUTHMIR who was placed in the Kings Stand. He's drifted 20's out to 40's which is bearish but the price action doesn't change the blood.

PENZANCE. By WOOTON BASSETT who stands for 150k at Coolmore. He was unsold as a yearling which is strange, maybe he was an ugly baby but is from the family of GOLDEN LILAC who won the Oaks and Guineas.

Other ped's to note but aren't as strong on paper are:

(4) PASSENGER who is by ULYSSES who has had a great start to the year. This lads family is all American, but his third dam was placed in the 1000 Guineas.

(1) KATHAB bought for 180,000gns as a foal, by KINGMAN and his mum won as a 2yo. She is a sister to CHRYSANTHEMUM who produced CUNCO.

(6) SYLLABUS was 180,000gns as a foal. By GALILEO'S illustrious brother SEA THE STARS, and out of a PIVOTAL mare. Haggas' first time our runners are never asked for too much and normally improve for their runs. The drift suggests this one will too, 5's out to 10's.

Note: horses are bought in 'gns' - a Guinea equals £1.05.

16.45 Newmarket

Several well bred horses in this race and the winner will come from whoever has trained on from 2 to 3. The market is headed by two we've hit hard before, LIBERTY LANE and MAJESTIC WARRIOR.

The son of TEOFILO made a very promising debut at Haydock on soft ground in October last year and if he can build on that he’s going to be bang there. TEOFILO was an unbeaten Champion 2yo and then unfortunately had to be retired due to injury; a lot of his progeny improve from 2 to 3 years old which makes you wonder we didn’t see the best of him.

LIBERTY LANE is hard to see past in the betting and I think he’ll be hard to pass too but it'll depend how fully wound up Burke has him on seasonal debut. The yard has had a good few days.

MAJESTIC WARRIOR looks to have had his supporters in the market, couldn’t have done it any better on debut when he looked green. He hits the ground hard in his running style so the softer ground won’t be a problem. He's by CHURCHILL, sire of European champ 2yo and a half to big Saturday horses like FUJAIRA PRINCE and NICHOLS CANYON.

SEALINE receives 7lbs from the top market rivals could be the fly in the ointment for the top two aforementioned. He was 4th on debut to Liberty Lane, beaten convincingly, but he’s a big boy so another winter on his back would have done him the world of good. He's by AUSTRALIA, the same sire as yesterdays big Feilden Stakes winner CANBERRA LEGEND. Like a fine wine, AUSTRALIA's all seem do better with age (and over further) and the GALILEO line over DUBAWI nick is fire - two titans of the stallion ranks in unison!

Risk on

We wouldn't put anyone off a stupid lunch money bet on the Godolphin treble/trixie of CHANGING COLOURS, CREATIVE FORCE and a horse we've followed his whole career, MYSTERIOUS NIGHT. That pays 17/1 and is our perm for today.

15.35 INDESTUCTIBLE

This is the hedge in the Craven Stakes should MYSERIOUS NIGHT not have trained on. He really only had the Dewhurst winner in front of him last year after his debut and now with Burke can improve on. Half bet at 7/1 for Amo who are unstoppable atm.

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

The TOTE FANTASY is good chimp management. Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: