Equinties - Coventry conundrum

Gm Equinauts

Four days until the Oaks and Aidan seems bullish on our selection!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

WIDE OPEN

The next week will be key for Royal Ascot chat. After all, it is two weeks until the Royal Meeting gets underway, and trainers will be applying their final touches at home.

This will, unfortunately, see a few fancied horse ruled out of their respective races, and yesterday, we got to see the red ‘X’ emoji on our timeline.

That’s right, ALBERT EINSTEIN is out of the Coventry Stakes.

This is ultimately a shame because he looked like a strong contender on paper. He did well to win the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes last time out, and Timeform looked upon him favourably in the grand scheme of Aidan O’Brien-trained Royal Ascot juveniles.

His chance was obvious, but now, the race is a lot more open than it once was.

POSTMODERN is a horse we spoke about in this newsletter after his Yarmouth debut success, and he has every right to improve further. TREANMOR bolted up at Newmarket earlier this month, and the second, VLAD, ran into the very well-supported ROGUE SUPREMACY yesterday at Wetherby. Even CHARLES DARWIN, with his three runs so far this season, could be a handy replacement for Ballydoyle if he goes, but it’s more likely that GSTAAD could be the one from the yard.

We’ll preview all the big Royal Ascot races closer to the time, but we will say one thing about the Coventry now.

With ALBERT EINSTEIN gone, Ryan Moore and O’Brien will now hang their hopes on another horse, either GSTAAD or CHARLES DARWIN.

Because of the pull O’Brien and Moore have with punters and general racing fans, don’t be surprised to see a market move come for either horse. They may well go and win, but O’Brien is a master trainer who likes to target his best horses for the best races.

ALBERT EINSTEIN was the Ballydoyle number one, so that already says that he is a better six-furlong juvenile than either GSTAAD or CHARLES DARWIN.

It may just be worth looking away from Ballydoyle this year, even with their brilliant record in the contest and we think we know the horse to take them in with…

We have a feeling we’ll be backing the Coventry winner this week.

GOOD START

Speaking of VLAD, he has had an unlucky start to his career.

As mentioned, on debut, he ran into Godolphin’s TREANMOR, and yesterday, ROGUE SUPREMECY justified his strong market position to win at Wetherby comfortably.

Not only was ROGUE SUPREMECY superbly impressive on his first career start, but the success gave ST MARK’S BASILICA a maiden victory as a stallion. Lovely work.

So, what to make of the race? Well, the front two look like ones to follow for obvious reasons, but let’s talk a little bit about ST MARK’S BASILICA. On the track, he won on soft, very soft, and good to soft, so you’d have been forgiven for thinking that a horse like ROGUE SUPREMECY might have preferred softer conditions yesterday.

But, in fairness to the 160,000gns purchase, he travelled like a horse who has no problem with faster ground, and he even changed legs a few times for good measure. Maybe that was as quick as he would like?

The jury is still out as to whether his offspring will prefer softer ground, though ROGUE SUPREMECY’s dam, MIGHTY SPIRIT, did win on heavy ground.

Still, ROGUE SUPREMECY is a horse to follow, and it could be a blessing in disguise that VLAD has been beaten twice so far this season.

There are plenty of valuable nursery handicaps throughout the season, and if the two horses he’s been beaten by go on to prove that they are smart ones, he could be well-treated.

FORM TO FOLLOW

Ralph Beckett has a sterling chance of winning the Epsom Derby this year.

Obviously, PRIDE OF ARRAS, the Dante winner, will take up many column inches on the run-up to the race, and rightly so. Both he and DAMYSUS look like good contenders from the Dante, and they are priced accordingly.

However, is there a bigger-priced runner from the Beckett yard who could be under the radar? Yes, we’re talking about STANHOPE GARDENS.

Now, with the worry that THE LION IN WINTER won’t be ridden by Ryan Moore on the Downs, this has seen DELACROIX come in for market support at the head of the market.

In our eyes, he sets a really good standard based on Ballysax Stakes and Derby Trial, but a quick look through his form shows that STANHOPE GARDENS got to within a neck of him in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes last season.

The front wo pulled well away on this occasion, and since then, they have both gone on to much success. DELACROIX’s achievements have already been mentioned, but STANHOPE GARDENS returned to the track successfully at Salisbury 10 days ago.

On his chances, James McCalmont, racing manager to joint-owner Marc Chan, said:

“We're intending to run next Saturday. He's come out of the race well.

"It's a big step up but there's only one Derby. Ralph has always had a very high opinion of the colt. He was under no pressure to run the horse but he's happy to head to Epsom and if all goes well this week that's where he'll be going.

"We're hoping he'll be very competitive. I don't think we'd be asking Marc to fly across from Hong Kong just for a day out at the Derby."
In what looks like a wide-open renewal this year, a case can be made for STANHOPE GARDENS, and Beckett’s tend to come on for their first runs of the season.

RISK ON

A good day yesterday with Eve’s 20/1 shot winning basically on the bridle and locking in 8’s on MINNIE HAUK before the market cut her right in to second fave - just as we thought it would.

Today we like:

14.17 SHABU SHABU

70 horse who should just win now now gelded and stepped up in trip. A couple of good excuses there for the inevitable ‘bing bong’ when the stewards wants to know where the unexpected improvement came from! 2/1

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