Equinties - clever Cromwell

Author

BGP Capital
January 05, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

With the news so slow due to the lack of racing at the moment, we did a full look ahead at tomorrow’s Sandown card… only to wake up and read it was bloody off.

An hour of writing lost doesn’t seem as bad as some of the evenings other people had last night, check this out!

This weather doesn’t look like stopping but mentally if you need some respite from this weather now, tune in to the heat of Meydan this afternoon. We have looked at the cards and picked out a couple of bets. Read below.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CROMWELL’S RAID

This season has seen a big upturn in how Gavin Cromwell has operated, as shown by his consistent raid of Cheltenham handicaps. Well actually, it’s not exclusively handicaps either as horses from FLOORING PORTER to LA MALMASON, MY MATE MOZZIE and ENCANTO BRUNO, have all helped Cromwell successfully pillage British treasures.  

There's good reason for him to be doing this as well.

Last season, John McConnell played the lower-level Cheltenham meetings to good success because of a lack of competitivity and the same has occurred again this year, though Cromwell seemingly has more firepower than McConnell.

Talking to the Racing Post, he explained why he has targeted Cheltenham meetings this season: "With the likes of Stumptown, if a race with those conditions would’ve been run in Ireland there would’ve been a full field no doubt and it would’ve been a lot more competitive.

“We’re always looking to come across when there’s an opportunity like that and we do work hard at race planning and looking for these types of races. “Look, all of us have to think outside the box to try and put these horses in the right races to win and if they can travel to do that then so be it.”

Although horses coming over the Irish Sea get a few extra pounds in the handicap, Irish trainers aren’t silly, and with the likes of LA MALMASON, they know the horses coming over are better than their inflated British mark. Like this even needs saying, but Cromwell’s raiders in the next few seasons warrant a high level of respect.

STAYING PUT

Speaking of Gavin Cromwell, connections are thinking of bringing the two-time Stayers’ Hurdle winner back over the small obstacles for another tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. 

Connections are potentially going to send the nine-year-old straight to the Festival after his slightly disappointing third in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase on December 29th.

As to what race – and what obstacles – he will be seen in/over, that is still up in the air, as Cromwell said: “He jumped really well, no excuses. The winner was very good on the day and we were beaten fair and square. 

“He jumped well and he’s probably going to struggle at that level over fences. “It’s hard to know where we go. I will put him in the Stayers’ Hurdle. “I’m not saying he will go for the Stayers’ Hurdle. We could go straight to Cheltenham, but what race we go for is very much up in the air.”

MEYDAN MUSINGS

Tired of the rain over here? Switch the racing on at 13.30 and your attention will be focused on some familiar faces racing in the warmth of Meydan, Dubai. Whack on one of those Zuckerberg headset things, grab a beer and sit next to a radiator - it'll be like you’re actually there!

The 13.30 kicks off with the boys in blue dominating the market with LOCAL DYNASTY. This lad is proper 100 rated horse who is lightly raced, so there could be more to come but even with his summer form he’s going to be hard to beat.

Whatever the boys in blue can do, the boys in purple can do it too. That’s right, Amo have tucked into theirs in the 14.40 as WALBANK’s price has been given the overnight chop, 8’s into 4’s. Buick in the plate, can he bag a quick double?

If Buick is to land a double, surely it has to be for his employers, Godolphin, and winning on REAL WORLD in the 17.00!?

REAL ORLD is a talented horse on his day who ran well in Bahrain and apparently has come forward from his run before Christmas.

The Godolphin double pays just under 8’s. We’ll have a go at that!

YOUNG BLOOD

LUDLOW BUMPER

This is going to be tough test for a lot of these girls making their debut. The market is rightly headed by point winner BELLAS BRIDGE who posted an okay rpr for her first effort under rules. She’ll be fit (key for today) but her pedigree and action suggests she needs better ground.

LADY NELL reps the Slop Queen Venetia Williams. This girl was 6’s last night and has subsequently been squeezed into 4’s, some in to 7/2, the ew price evaporating. Venetia trained this one’s Grade 1 winning grand dam LADY REBECCA who was 3 from 4 in bumpers. She was owned David Redvers who also own LADY NELL making it a real Cotswolds affair. She has the pedigree to go well in this today.

BIG ANGE is by TELESCOPE, a sire who’s progeny tend to need quicker ground. That said, the dam was a bumper winner in heavy going. Nige targets bumpers. Huge danger.

LADY JAGO didn’t run to expectation lto. She’ll need to improve today. Perhaps one for further down the line for Dan Skelton.

MY BOBBY’S LASS is a half to a bumper winner for Nicky Henderson. By a different sire though in PETHERS MOON, he’s not really producing bumper winners. Trainer does well in bumpers though.

Henry Daly’s ROARING HOME has a nice pedigree for this sort of race but we think she will need better ground.

The prices of the others suggest they’re not winning today.

Verdict: On pedigree, it’s between he two Cotswolds trainers Venetia and Nige. BIG ANGE is trained by Nige who LOVES winning these races but we’re siding with LADY NELL for Venetia, and not just because it’s muddy. LADY NELL carries some brilliant history in her pedigree and her connections are back ready to re-write more.

RISK ON

We’ll play the Buick singles and small 8/1 double as well as the bumper play.

12.25 KADIWO

We do believe in the market, and the sell off on this lad (8’s out to 14’s) says this lad is out for a jog. But his pedigree is too good (in this field) to leave alone. Will love the heavy going and is a half to a good, slop loving 140 horse. Moore in banging form a bonus. We know how good LOVE TREE is, we backed her the last twice. If KADIWO is out for a public schooling, LOVE TREE is a distance bet so there is your hedge. SMALL SMALL bet 14’s ew on Moore’s.

LUDLOW TREBLE

DAMEOFTHECOTSWOLDS tp top 3, ROYAL WAY w & LADY NELL tp top 3 is 3/1. Small.