Equinties - Classic clues

Gm Equinauts

Our new section ‘a look ahead’ has produced very good yield for this newsletter since its inception.

Today we are zeroing in on Aintree.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

STYLISH WIN

We said that yesterday’s racing would offer big clues for the upcoming Classics and after the victory of ROMANTIC STYLE this statement proved true.  

ROMANTIC STYLE won the Prix Imprudence in taking fashion. The daughter of NIGHT OF THUNDER is now Pouliches bound, the Imprudence has produced two winners of the French Classic in the last 10 years.

She had to come up the far side of the group to win yesterday having been covered up behind runners under William Buick whilst the favourite, RAMATUELLE, was given an easy time of things up the rail. So, on that evidence, it was a dominant performance and Buick wasn’t doing too much at the finish. 

Appleby made no secret of the fact that he thinks a mile will be ROMANTIC STYLE’s maximum distance, so that is why the French Guineas is on his agenda for her rather than the English Guineas over a testing trip at Newmarket. 

RAMATUELLE in 2nd, would have hated the ground being by JUSTIFY but she ran on well and obviously connections had their hopes as she touched evens. The 1000 Guineas is now the target.

As for other clues, TAMFANA and Oisin made the running up the middle of the track, a bloody hard thing to do on seasonal reappearance and David Menuisier has the hopes she’ll still make up into a Guineas or Pouliches runner. 

The colts trial in the Djebel was dominated by Nurlan Bizakov’s LAZZAT, a son of TERRITORIES. There was a healthy 7 lengths back to 3rd where DEVIL’S POINT never picked up, strange considering he came with a Gr1 placing at 2 in the Futurity stakes.

LAZZAT is a gelding, so his options and early season targets diminish somewhat. The Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot has got to be on the agenda.

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/reports/godolphins-romantic-style-sets-up-guineas-date-back-in-france-after-scoring-in-deauville-classic-trial-ae0GK5M4devY/

KEY JOCKEY BOOKINGS 

We live in a world where JP McManus has five, yes FIVE, live chances in this year’s Aintree Grand National, and it was Mark Walsh’s unenviable decision to choose which one he would ride yesterday. With I AM MAXIMUS already reserved for Paul Townend due to Willie Mullins, this left Walsh with the choice of LIMERICK LACE, MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, CAPODANNO, and JANIDIL. 

The retained green and gold rider picked the former, LIMERICK LACE, as his ride for the £1,000,000 contest with Danny Mullins set to ride MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, the big money horse for the race at the five-day stage. 

The Paddy Power Chase winner and Ultima third has seen sustained support over the last week to move his price in from 14/1 to 9/1 in places, and William Hill have even floated the idea that he could be the favourite ahead of CORACH RAMBLER, the current 11/2 favourite, by the time the tape goes up.

Lee Phelps, spokesperson for William Hill, said: “Make no mistake, this is a massive gamble, and we’ve been forced to take more preventative action, cutting Willie Mullins’ runner to 8-1 from 10-1, having been as big as 14-1 less than a week ago.

“Most people would have expected last year’s winner Corach Rambler to go off favourite, but if this gamble continues at its current rate we think there’s a good chance Meetingofthewaters could be favourite come Saturday."

JP loves a plan coming to together, could this unexposed 7yo be his third win in the world-famous race?

A LOOK AHEAD

This new section of the newsletter has done pretty well so far:

Usually, this section picks out the major handicap of the weekend from an ante-post perspective and analyses it runner by runner. If we were to stick to normal protocol, this week’s feature race would be the Grand National but we’ll save that preview for the Weekender and instead go through the £100,000 3m1f handicap chase at 14.30 on Saturday.

We are assuming the ground will be heavy going, right?

At the head of affairs is THE KING OF RYHOPE for Dan and Harry Skelton in what is a big Aintree for them (the team are looking to run around 10 runners a day in search of a maiden trainers’ title for Dan) and they won this race last year with yard favourite MIDNIGHT RIVER.

After this years Cheltenham, it’s hard to assess Dan’s horses in big races now - can you trust the form? Probably not. That said THE KING OF RYHOPE clearly doesn’t like it too deep. He’s lost when gambled on heavy and has also been a NR on heavy - very much like his mum ELEVEN FIFTY NINE who was a winner on quick and pulled from 3 races for the heavy going. Take on.

CREBILLY’s only entry of the week is for what could be a first test at three miles after his staying-on effort in the Plate on his last start. He was backed like he couldn’t lose that day, but found mud lark SHAKEM UP’ARRY the only one too good on the day. 

There were a couple of small jumping errors which a slower pace on even slower ground will sort. Also, the form of that Exeter win two starts ago could well be strong in time and he comes from a family of three-mile winners on the dam’s side.

If you like MEETINGOFTHEWATERS for the National, then TWIG has to enter calculations after his second in the Ultima (we backed the winner). It was a rather remarkable performance on the ground as all his previous form had been on better ground. The sample size for him performing on slow ground is very small, so he is interesting and his pedigree suggests slop is fine but he doesn’t get his knees up very high… Maybe he took advantage of a race that well apart?

The same could be said for FORWARD PLAN who has most of his best form on better ground, though he did bolt up on soft at Kempton lto albeit the form is a little mixed. High in the handicap now - where is his ceiling? Take on.

KILBEG KING has Sam Twiston-Davies booked to do the steering this weekend having found the test of a National Hunt Chase too testing lto. It may be a better choice to save him for Punchestown to search for better conditions. Take on.

FUGITIF has never tried 3 miles, AMIRITE will probably be a non runner owed to ground and INCH HOUSE isn’t good enough to win this. Take all them on.

A potential one to consider at the big prices could be HIGHSTAKESPLAYER for Tom Lacey. He had 458 days off the track prior to his win at Kempton on soft in February and his effort at Newbury lto probably came too soon. The money came for him that day, so there must have been some confidence, and he beat GEMIRANDE (a horse who is rated 15lbs higher now) by nine lengths in November 2022 before his setback, so a mark of 130 could underestimate him. Lacey won this race in ‘18 and it has been made clear this race has been the long term plan for his lad. Heavy going a concern

SAM BROWN won this race in 2022 off 7lbs lower, but he could have won it with another 10lbs on his back - he bolted up in it. He is by BLACK SAM BELLAMY so doesn’t mind the slower conditions but versatile on all ground and he is a very classy animal on his day. He landed success at Ascot two weeks ago off 151, so 154 is manageable but will this race have come too soon? 3 weeks between races… but this has to have been the plan!

Verdict: The younger legs of CREBILLY will make a good race but we love old boy and top weight SAM BROWN for this who is looking to recapture his title having won this race in ‘22. He won it easily that year and if he still has the legs at 12yo, he could run a huge race. Honeyball is good with veterans so we trust he’s right and 16/1 everywhere makes for a fun Saturday ew.

RISK ON

We picked the wrong Brocklesby 2yo yesterday and was then given a stinker of a ride on the Webber horse. Four bets, four losses happens - a bank allows for a hit like that.

Todays bets are:

15.30 KING OF THE ROAD

Hacked up lto and looks to be well handicapped with Skeltons the only danger. 5/2 a nice price

LOTTERY ACCA

14.40 AMERJEET, 15.10 BEVERAGINO, 16.10 MY NOBLE LORD, 16.45 CHINDWIN

AMERJEET a good single as well as this perm. Boys against girls and well bred, supposed to be going well.

BEVERAGINO racea two horse race on paper and the form horse is Bells (who looks to have them lined up today, apparently MY NOBLE LORD is a plot!). The Hughes fave has a 5bs pen top carry which will make her job tough. 11/8 a good single.

MY NOBLE LORD looks plotty and bred to be better in time.

CHIDWIN stinks too with whispers for it. Could be the one to let the lottery acca down so we’ll split stake with a Lucky 15.

Play a small 31/1 four fold and Lucky 15 lunch money. Small stakes

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