Equinties - Christmas moves

Gm Equinauts

With basically our entire team off this week, it’s been a monumental effort to get this newsletter out every day. The content might not be as thorough in detail as normal and home to the usual typo’s, but we’ve managed to bring you the important, ‘need to know’ bits that hopefully have only increased your racing knowledge.

Our FULL team will be back on it Saturday, have a couple of day off for Christmas and then hit Boxing day hard!

Let’s dive in.

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p.s none of this is medical advice but we’ve tried it…

HEADLINE ROUND UP

DESPERATE TO RUN

The Christmas period is a wonderful time to be a racing fan. Grade 1 after Grade 1 litters our TV screens, and one of these spectacle races could receive a big boost as Willie Mullins is keen to run GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Grade 1 Savills Chase on December 28th. 

The Gold Cup winner had been expected to follow his usual route of Irish Gold Cup to Cheltenham, but the longer gap between his first run in the John Durkan and the DRF has allowed Mullins to think. Funnily enough, Mullins is running his flag bearer as a Merry Christmas present to the Irish race planners, as he said: "At the moment the plan is for Galopin to run at Leopardstown in the Savills.

They moved the John Durkan back a week to try and facilitate horses who might want to run again at Christmas and I think it's only fair that we reward that initiative from our race-planners. It's what I'd like to do. I want to run.”

This means the seven-year-old is set to clash with FASTORSLOW for the fourth time, with the scoreline reading 2-1 in favour of Martin Brassil’s Punchestown Gold Cup winner. Both times FASTORSLOW has won, people have been quick to defend GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, though there was no doubting the result lto as the best horse on the day won. 

However, it is worth noting that the John Durkan (2m4f) turned into a sprint test which wouldn’t have suited GALOPIN DES CHAMPS too well, though we do know that FASTORSLOW appreciates a further distance as well which is interesting. 

Add to the race A PLUS TARD and a potential appearance from GERRI COLOMBE and there’s not much more one can ask for in a three-mile chase. Let’s hope we get to see something special.

MARKET MOVERS

With just three days to go until Saturday, the final ‘big card’ before the Christmas action, here are a few market movers to keep an eye on, one of which includes the Sheila Lewis-trained STRAW FAN JACK in the 2m5f Graduation Chase at Ascot (13.50).

The eight-year-old has seen sustained money from 12/1 to 7/1 in the early stages of entries and having run a good race in defeat to PIC D’ORHY lto, BANBRIDGE in April, and FRERE D’ARMES at Newbury in November, you can see why. 

 But, as the tweet above suggests, one does have to query the race planning of this horse. No doubt, connections think he is a very good horse so he has competed in very good races, but watch his run back when second to PIC D’ORHY lto and you’ll understand that this horse would murder any field in a handicap off 140.

Mind you, Saturday’s graduation chase isn’t a vintage renewal, yet because he is not in a handicap he has to race off the same weight as MILLERS BANK (148) and SOLO (149). DEJO also has to carry four pounds less despite being rated three pounds higher. 

Also at Ascot is the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3:35) to finish the card and there are small nibbles for ALTOBELLI at 7/1. 

This race has been the season-long plan from Harry Fry and having been a 12/1-shot a few weeks ago, he is touching 6/1 in places. The unexposed five-year-old was touted as a Grade 1 animal last year though he did disappoint in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. His run at Ascot was promising in November and if that has sharpened him up, he should be right there.

BALLET TO STUD

Finally, the world of National Hunt sires has another horse entering its ranks as BOLSHOI BALLET has been retired to join Coolmore’s National Hunt roster at The Beeches Stud. 

The GALILEO five-year-old picked up two Grade 1 races in his time on the track in the 2021 Belmont Derby and 2023 Sword Stakes (on his final start) – he was also sent off as an 11/8-shot to win the 2021 Epsom Derby, a race won by ADAYAR. Prior to these major successes, he recorded victories in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes and Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes – both over 1m2f – emulating GALILEO, YEATS, and HIGH CHAPARRAL.

Best of luck to Coolmore on their future stud plans with BOLSHOI BALLET.

More: https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/bolshoi-ballet-retires-to-the-beeches-stud/

NEWBURY VIEWS

First race. The first looks a two horse race with preference for Moore’s (see write up below).

Second race, 12.50. Several good NH ped’s - JJ’s, Alan kings, Paulings Chris Gordon’s. Alan kings looked very good in first bumper but perhaps needed the run lto? JJ/JP’s FORTUNATE MAN interesting.

13.25. We love BRAVE KINGDOM and think he is better than the others in this race but there is a huge danger he may bounce. Horses can ‘bounce’ / run very poorly after running well on return from a long lay off - their body not quite recovered for their big exertions. We’re not willing to risk money to find out.

14.00. Mares Listed chase - Skeltons simply leverage for another. Add to GO TO WAR for a 13/8 bet.

14.35. EAST INDIA EXPRESS was a max bet for a lot of punters lto. Good horse but market siding with GIDLEIGH PARK for Fry who has done nothing wrong so far. Add him to the GALIA DES LITEAUX, GO TO WAR double, you have a 5/2 shorties treble.

15.10. Can see why Skeltons is fave, big chaser in making. Our selection is GALLIC GEORDIE to go close.

YOUNG BLOOD

Two bumpers today so will keep it relatively brief, concentrating only on the better bloods.

AYR BUMPER 

As so often seen in Scottish bumpers, the Crawford’s holding strong fave. AYIKO reps the familiar green silks of owners who buy good horses. A half to a bumper winner for Snowden, this lad ran okay in a weak Irish bumper lto so trying to find a W here in the UK. Needs to up his game. 

Olly Murphys should have won lto. If he’s come on for the run then should be going very close today meaning he beats the re-opposing Ian Duncan horse again. 

Russell’s JOSIE ALICE only ran 5 days ago!? She was the pick then but can’t be today given such a short amount of time. They’re either running again quickly to get a mark or it was work lto and she’s bouncing … inclined to think former? 

MALICASH was another lto Young Blood pick who placed at a price. That was an okay bumper but this lad might want better ground. 

POSH ET NOIR is well named, we imagine it’s a play on Posh and Becks … Post and Black (noir) as he is by BLACK SAM BELLAMY. This lads pedigree is PERFECT for bumpers and if trained by what we consider to be a ‘bumper’ trainer then he’d be a strong bet - he has bumper winners littered on his page. In this ground and given the weak(ish) field, might be worth changing at 50’s. 

Verdict: Stats and money say POSH ET NOIR won’t be trying though which is a shame because if wound up could win this (on paper only). Often trainers have no idea what horses they have!

NEWBURY BUMPER 

DANCE THE MOON is 9/1 joint fave meaning the market hasn’t yet a clue what’s expected. This girl is by a sire we’re a big fan of - SEA THE MOON. He’s champion sire in Germany this year. A half to some very nice horses and Alan King knows the family well. The right fave. 

MARIA’S FLAME went off fave lto and is fave again. Was a weak bumper lto and she didn’t run well. Needs to bring some of that second dam out of here and improve to be any where near close today. 

Honeyball targets bumpers and brings a filly to this race who is out of a half to LA BAGUE AU ROI. If she is anything like that good girl, she hacks up.

We know a few punters waiting on BOB BOB RICHARD to come out again. Well,  CHATTAMENTO is his half sis running for Nicholls’ ex-wife (who can ready them). Related to an Ebor winner, she had the blood to be a good flat stayer.  Ground a huge issue for this blood type though - she won’t want to worse than good to soft - is Newbury drying out? 

Verdict: Honeyballs being backed - could be sensible to follow the money but we like CHATTAMENTO on pedigree if the ground isn’t too testing. Please watch the ground if you are playing.

RISK ON

No bet Sunday, one bet and money back Monday, a yak off a good bet yesterday - we don’t bet much but try to make it count. No luck this week yet, today should prove to be a good opportunity for yield.

12.15 THROUGH THE AGES

Pedigree pick here. Gary Moore seems to have his Christmas bet money down in the 14.20 but it’s this lad we’re interested in in a weak race. Looked a non-trier at Huntingdon behind future Triumph winner and previous max NAP banker BURDETT ROAD. Godolphin gave up on this one but Moore went and paid 100K for him at the sales - interesting. In a two horse race, we think THROUGH THE AGES can get the better of the odds on Hendo hotpot filly. 9/2.

13.15 LOVE TREE

Redemption today. This girl was a bet lto vs the re-opposing Twiston Davies mare. DAMEOFTHECOTWOLDS was off the bridle the whole way and we were home and hosed right up until Sammy managed to lift the smaller, nippier DAMEOFTHECOTSWOLDS past lonely LOVE TREE. LOVE TREE is a much bigger filly so should be better over these hurdles? Small play here as it’s emotional.