Equinties - Chester in May

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The famous Roodee is back!

Chester always, always makes for great viewing, but it is notoriously hard to find the winners as stall and track position count for more here than any other track

One easy way to have an interest in the races without doing your b*llocks is to play the TOTE Fantasy.

Now, let’s dive in.

Headline round up 

Heskout 

In a partnership that has lasted nearly six years, prominent owner Max MacNeil has ended his retainment with jockey Adrian Heskin.  

Heskin and the McNeil Family have teamed up for success on numerous occasions, most notably with THE WORLDS END in the Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle and Grade 1 Marsh Hurdle as well as with THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE for two recent Grade 2 victories.  

Max McNeil has highlighted “finances” and logistics as the reason for the decision as he said: “It will simplify things a bit, with me having more direct contact with the trainers and my daughter Ella can help with some of the admin tasks, she runs Chelsea Thoroughbreds and is doing a bit of stuff for Racing TV as well"

"It was very much financial with Adrian but also I have to take into account the trainers' views and some of them would prefer to use their own jockeys and you have to take that view into account. That was also part of it. I'll still use Adrian but he won't always be first choice." 

More: Leading owner Max McNeill splits with retained jockey Adrian Heskin and racing manager | Racing Post 

Big race preview

14.40 Cheshire Oaks

At 14.40, the Weatherbys Cheshire Oaks goes and Aidan O’Brien will be hoping for a change of luck this week after having a luckless weekend at the Guineas meeting and the Derby Trials at Leopardstown. He runs the GALILEO filly SAVETHELASTDANCE who won lto on her seasonal return, she was the second string that day but won pillar to post. The form has worked out very well with 2nd place going on to win her next race by 5 lengths and the 3rd winning her next race by 4 lengths. She’ll have a slight fitness edge on her rivals having had the run and trainer has won this race an amazing 7 times.

ASHTANGA looked a promising sort last year winning well on her second and final start as a 2yo. Physically she’ll improve from 2 to 3 years old but the stable has got off to a slow start and she could be one who improves from the run.

SISYPHUS STRENGTH won on her second start as a 2yo and then couldn’t back up her promise at Newmarket where she looked to get unbalanced and lose her action in the dip. Breeding suggests she’ll improve with age and ground shouldn’t be an issue. Andrew Baldings horses do very well around Chester and she looks to be SAVETHELASTDANCE's biggest rival.

SIRONA won twice as a 2yo including at Listed level in Germany. Disappointed on her final start and her form is questionable, needs to improve.

THERE’S THE DOOR is a small filly so the track might suit and she seems in great form winning her last race by 5 lengths. That was in a handicap so she needs to run a personal best today and hope a couple in the market underperform.

Verdict: Considering SAVETHELASTDANCE has had a run this year and the form has worked out so well and also the trainers record in this race is outstanding she gets the nod. SISYPHUS STRENGTH could run a big race at bigger odds, she’s the ew value in a field of 8.

15.15 Group 3 Chester Vase 

Just the five are set to head to post for the Chester Vase but the head of the field is dominated by the highly promising ARREST for John & Thady Gosden. 

It's good to soft at this unique track today and ARREST was second to DUBAI MILE, the 2000 Guineas fifth, on heavy lto in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud, a race he really should have won. 

The form with NOSTRUM and SEA OF ROSES looks good and he could be a big player in the Derby next month at 14/1. 

The horse who was six lengths behind him lto was ADELAIDE RIVER for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. 

The market has seen some support for him, so where does he find the extra six lengths?  

Well, he won on debut last season, something ARREST didn’t do, and his sire, AUSTRALIA, would usually see his progeny get better with age (BROOME, ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, and SIR RON PRIESTLY). Interesting contender for a trainer who has won this race 10 times. 

The only other single-figure priced horse is HADRIANUS for Charlie Johnston and Franny Norton, the king of Chester. 

He was second to what looks like a useful horse in EPICENTIUS lto after his one-length win on the all-weather at Kempton in December. The pedigree should be nice for this contest being a GALILEO with a dam side littered with winning stayers.

Verdict: ARREST could easily win this and go on to be a force in the Derby.

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

13.30 Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes

ZIGGY’S PHOENIX is by KODIAC, trained by Hannon and owned by Middleham Park who have had a strong start to the season. This filly won on soft ground lto, her dam side has stamina. She holds the handy number 1 stall and will look to break well and go pillar to post again.

Middleham Park also own ZIGGY’S DREAM, a first time out winner trained by Alice Haynes. By INNS OF COURT and from the renowned Tally Ho Stud in Ireland. Dam side littered with winners but INNS OF COURT still to prove himself as a sire.

Hugo Palmer has two in here. TIERNEY is ridden by Murphy and comes from stall 5. She’s by bullet sire MEHMAS who stands for €60,000 and like INNS OF COURT and KODIAC stands at Tally Ho Stud. Dam was a miler - could this blunt TIERNEY'S speed?

Hugo Palmer also saddles BALON D’OR who’s by KODIAC and won first time out so subsequently has to carry a penalty and is drawn wide today. Dam was an 80 rated, winning sprinter and past her, there is higher rated speed in the family.

PARKSIDE BOY is trained by the up and coming Irish trainer John S O’Donoghue. This colt won the same maiden at Dundalk as BLACKBEARD, SKITTER SKATTER and CARAVAGGIO. Stall 4 is a plus and from a very precocious family, by KUROSHIO who was a top sprinter in Australia, he looks dangerous.

David Evans trains the DANDY MAN filly SHE’S SMART, he won this race back in 2017. Stall 9 is a worry.

Verdict: PARKSIDE BOY is interesting having won well at Dundalk and could give favourite ZIGGY’S PHOENIX a good race who'll break fast from stall 1.

Risk on

3 shorties spanked yesterday and it's a tough days racing today with the 'good things' short enough so we might sit this out and play the TOTE Fantasy.

If there are any bets, they will be posted on twitter @equinties.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens.

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

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