Equinties - Chester day 3

Gm Equinauts

Chester has been kind to us. Let’s keep the good things coming.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

LADIES DAY

It was Ladies Day yesterday at Chester but no nice fillies race! Why not move the Cheshire Oaks to Thursday?

CAPULET was a good winner after an inspired inspired ride. We picked him. He now has either the Epsom Derby or French Derby in his sights. Everyone umming and arghing about whether these JUSTIFY horses train on, well they do!

Aidan’s definitely need the run, or had done so early in the season. The one horse, weirdly because he’s supposed to be the best is CITY OF TROY who looks like he needs 2 or 3 runs to get back (if he can get back at all). On a side note, would love to see CITY OF TROY on fast ground over a mile or 10 furlongs.

CAPULET has a pretty savage pedigree. Bear with us; his dam WEDDING VOW was 2nd in the Gr1 Nassau, she is a sister to Derby winner SERPENTINE, Oaks 3rd BYE BYE BABY and Gr3 winner BEACON ROCK. CAPULETS’s 2nd dam is REMEMBER WHEN, who was 2nd in the Oaks, she in turn is a sister to multiple Gr1 winner DYLAN THOMAS, Gr1 winning 2yo QUEENS LOGIC and 1000 Guineas winner HOMCOMING QUEEN.

Like CAPULET, Ormonde winner POINT LONSDALE now has some options too. Is it the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, Hardwicke or the Coronation Cup at Epsom? Twice now he has won at the Roodee, last year winning the Huxley Stakes.

ARREST really needs soft in the going description. A beating of 6 lengths probably isn’t fair, he was never in love with the ground and Gosden is likely missing Frankie.

A 2yo to note yesterday was RASHABAR, who finished second in the maiden behind TEEJ A. He was in stall 10, and had a mountain to climb coming into the straight. The winner slipped up the paint and won cosily but RASHABAR was coming with every stride. A €125,000 Arqana yearling he’ll get better as the year progresses.

BURKE’S CLASSIC UPDATES

Having held a pretty decent hand going into the first two Classics of the season, it’s fair to say that Karl Burke probably walked away from Newmarket slightly deflated.

FALLEN ANGEL was his best result as she finished eighth in the 1000 Guineas while DARNATION was 14th and NIGHT RAIDER walked across the line in the 2000 Guineas to finish 10th. However, in this game you have to pick yourself up and dust yourself off, and that’s what Burke is doing as he has named the next targets for all three.

Starting with FALLEN ANGEL, he said: "I need to discuss it with the owners, but if the ground were soft there's a possibility she could go to Ireland or we could wait and step her up in trip for the Prix de Diane.

"She certainly wasn't stopping at the end of the Guineas, she was just one pace from three down."

As for DARNATION, she also has the option of the Irish Guineas, though the German equivalent is also an option. One can imagine Burke will split these two up, so if the ground is soft enough for the Irish Guineas, FALLEN ANGEL could head there and DARNATION would go to Germany.

Finally, NIGHT RAIDER is steering clear of any Classics, as Burke said: “We'll probably come back in trip and aim him at the Jersey Stakes now. I'd imagine he'll go straight there.

"He's still a big, raw horse and he's got a lot of maturing to do physically as well as mentally. We'll give him plenty of time, he's still a very good horse."

More: 'She certainly wasn't stopping' - Karl Burke keeping faith with star three-year-olds despite Guineas disappointments | Racing Post

THE WONDER MUM

For regular readers of Thoroughbred Daily News (we highly recommend them for news), you might have seen that Emma Barry visited legendary owner-breeder Kirsten Rausing recently to check up on how ALPINISTA, the 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner, is doing is motherhood.

The 7yo mare by FRANKEL justified odds of 3/1 to win the season-defining contest in October 2022, a race that all racing fans will enjoy watching back.

Since retiring from the track and heading off to be a broodmare, she has given birth to a DUBAWI filly and she is already in foal to STUDY OF MAN.

“What I always say about Alpinista is that she is, of course, incapable of doing anything wrong. She is a wonderful heroine,” Rausing said. “Last year she went in foal immediately at first attempt, and she has a really nice grey filly foal by Dubawi.  

“Everything has gone well with both mare and foal, and again she's done it all completely right this year. She's back in foal to Study Of Man, so we're very excited to have her in foal to this up-and-coming horse.”

As for STUDY OF MAN, his time at stud has gotten off to a flying start. From his first crop, he produced the Group 2-winning DEEPONE (out of a GALILEO mare) as well as Juddmonte’s KALPANA (second in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes last weekend) and SONS OF LOVERS (third in the 2024 Group 3 Craven Stakes).

On the success of STUDY OF MAN, Rausing said: “At the moment he is exceeding my expectations. It is exciting that Study Of Man can do this with a limited number of mares. Things are really looking very exciting for the future.”

We gave a good word to STUDY OF MAN last month, so let’s hope his rate of progression at stud can continue.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

15.05 GROUP 2 HUXLEY STAKES

ISRAR has been backed like he can’t lose this race but he ran horribly last time out at Sandown. His action was notably shorter, scratchy if you like, and as a result was eaten up by the longer striding horses in the home straight. That sort of action will like today’s conditions but we don’t back ugly so we’re inclined to take him on.

PASSENGER hasn’t been seen since the summer last year? Stoutey must have been bullish on this lad to chuck him into a Group 2 on his second start. Will he need the run today? If he doesn’t, his last run is very good form and the word from his yard is he’ll be running in Group 1’s this season.

HANS ANDERSON reps Aidan and Coolmore who are loving Chester this week. SO far they they’ve had 6 runners - 2 have won, the rest placed! Today’s trip is still an unknown for HANS ANDERSON despite him winning at the trip lto (easy race) and given his mum was a 5f horse, he could get found out today. Then again, it’s not as if Aidan doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Shadwell cast-off MASHOOR at 10’s will enjoy todays good ground conditions. He’s improved a ton with age and has turned into a certified Group performer on his day, his big performance was scalping AL RIFFA in a Curragh Group 3. Draw lines through his later races maybe, he’d had a long season. Real player today being fresh.

OVIEDO is a good horse but isn’t up to this level and REGAL REALITY is a miler.

Verdict: We’re keen to take on the short priced fave. We’ll play two with PASSENGER and MASHHOOR against the fave, the former for the whispers and the latter because he’s had a run and likes to front run - we’re hoping he won’t get caught!

15.40 THE CHESTER CUP

We don’t usually preview handicaps unless it’s part of our ‘A Look Ahead’ section, but this is a big race most will be getting involved in today so here’s one line on the main contenders for today’s Chester Cup.

AZTEC EMPIRE is the well-backed favourite as he boasts form with SWEET WILLIAM (Ebor runner-up) from last season. He has a workable mark, though he did miss his prep and that could worry favourite backers, especially since Balding’s always seem to need a run. That said, Balding LOVES targetting this race.

ZOFFEE finished second in this race last year and now has a three-pound lower mark. On that basis, he should go well, and there’s no METIER in the race this year. That being said, the Hugo Palmer stable form (1/28) would give cause for concern.

As well as AZTEC EMPIRE, Balding also has GRAND PROVIDENCE and SPIRIT MIXER. The former is an improving 4yo filly and will appreciate returning to the track stipped fitter than last time. Has this been the plan all along?

As for the latter, he is the opposite as he’s a solid horse who will need to find his old form. That being said, it’s only five runs on from his second to TRUESHAN in the 2022 Northumberland Plate and he is 3lbs lower than his mark that day. Callum Hutchinson also takes off a valuable 3lbs.

Although METIER isn’t in the race this year, there is a horse with a similar profile to him in the contest with TOO FRIENDLY. Like METIER, he has been running in Graded-level hurdles - notably when behind RUBAUD who has form behind CONSTITUTION HILL and LOSSIEMOUTH - though he is a decent Flat horse. He won comfortably at Kempton on the AW two starts ago and a mark of 89 looks like a very workable rating.

Of the rest, Kevin Ryan’s FORZA ORTA should be considered based on the AZTEC EMPIRE form line.

He’s just 2lbs higher than that winning mark and he was doing enough at the line, so he could hit the frame.

Verdict: This is the trappiest of trappy races so we’ll provide a verdict without financial advice. On pedigree, for this race, AZTEC EMPIRE is the one but we are conscious his prep hasn’t been straight forward - will his missed work catch him out? Maybe. The next choice would be MAGELLAN STRAIT at a juicy price for Joseph O’Brien but he’s struggling for winners. It’s really a no betting race.

RISK ON

Easy big priced winner with PRIMO LARA yesterday who looks like he’ll keep winning. Todays bets are the two selections in the 15.05 as per preview (slightly strong bet on PASSENGER) and these

13.50 AMERICAN BAY

Caught the eye at Newbury. They’ve stuck to 7f suggesting he’s quick enough (stamina in pedigree) and he’s fit - all amounts to a big run today. 9/4.

17.00 IRON HEART

NAP material back on good ground. Bowen yard cold atm but won’t be for long now the summer is here. This lad could spark a summer bull run for the yard. Good bet at 5/2.

Todays leverage horse is MISS RASCAL in the 14.20, add to perms for near 1x leverage.