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Equinties - Cheltenham shakeup
BGP Capital
November 12, 2025
Gm Equinauts
With the rain due to absolutely belt it down, we’re going to be looking ahead at the Cheltenham’s three day November meeting (Friday, Saturday and Sunday).
Subscribe to our premium edition and in tomorrows newsletter you will find our thoughts and a couple of early plays on some sloppers across the three days to try an poach a bit of an early price.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
THE RAIN IS COMING
This weekend is quite interesting for Cheltenham. The ground is set to be on the softer side for the first time this weekend, and yet the fields for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Greatwood look like they are missing something.
It’s a shame, and the argument that the jumps season hasn’t quite started yet due to the quick ground conditions is going to get a proper test over the next few weeks. If fields pick up and clashes start to happen, perfect. If not, we will once again be reminded that we are in trouble.
Anyway, what are conditions set to be like this weekend?
The ground is currently good, good to soft (in places), but there is a good chance that sustained rain will fall in Gloucestershire over the next few days. A good chunk of rain fell last night, according to our sources close to Cheltenham, and some is set to fall in the early hours of Friday morning, so one would assume that the ground could soften up to good to soft all over, and maybe even soft by the time Sunday rolls around. For this reason, Clerk of the Course, Jon Pullin, is refraining from adding any extra water on for the time being. He said: "There's certainly some rain looking like it's coming. Rain will begin through the night, before a mainly dry outlook during most of the day on Wednesday and Thursday.
"However, from the early hours of Friday we've got a significant band of rain. That may amount to 20mm-plus of rain and could stay through the day, but Saturday and Sunday look much better. The key will be how much rain we get in those early hours as if we get that much, it'll certainly ease conditions."
So, it’s not only the rain that’s falling in the run-up to racing starting on Friday, it’s also the potential downpour of water from the heavens that could fall during racing on Friday. That will, inevitably, be a tough thing to weigh-up for both the clerk and the trainers making running plans.
One man who will be on massive weather watch for Sunday is Sam Thomas with CELTIC DINO, as he is lining up for the Greatwood Hurdle, ground permitting. He said: “He’s great, he feels fantastic, and I just wouldn’t want any more rain, to be honest.”
He was stuffed on soft ground in the Formby, and he’s a good ground winner on three occasions. So, proper nice ground is really what he wants, and we find it hard to believe that Thomas will chance him off top weight (144) in softer conditions. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him maybe get a break (which would be annoying) in order to save him for the spring. But, to be fair, it’s not just him in that Greatwood who wouldn’t want the ground softening up too much.
ALEXEI (despite being an ex-German Flat horse) is a good to firm winner and a two-time winner on good, notably at Ascot earlier this month, MIRABAD (now with the Skeltons) has been kept mainly to good ground (he also bombed out in the Betfair on soft ground), Gordon Elliott’s BOWENSONFIRE probably wants nice ground, and the same can be said for HELNWEIN and LELOOPA.
Horses like GIBBS ISLAND (soft ground winner), IBERICO LORD (heavy ground Betfair Hurdle winner), SERIOUS CHALLENGE (heavy ground winner) and KNICKERBLOCKERGLORY (heavy ground winner) could all be liking their lips if the rain comes.
It goes without saying, therefore, that ante-post betting at this stage is a bit dicey unless you want to steam into the sloppers early and pray the forecast is accurate…
Which is exactly what we’re going to be doing!
PLAYING GAMES?
Nicky Henderson gave LULAMBA an entry for the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle yesterday, and we did have a little bit of a chuckle.
“OH MY GOD, WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO CONNY HILL?!” “IT’S JUST LIKE NICKY TO PUT US ALL AWAY LIKE THIS!”
Calm down people, Henderson is a good thinker, and his entry is surely just a safety protocol in case something goes wrong with CONSTITUTION HILL.
And look, we don’t want to keep mentioning CONNY HILL because, well, it is getting a touch boring. There are only a certain amount of ways Henderson and Nico de Boinville can say ‘yep, he’s grand, let’s just wait for the track’. It seems like de Boinville is very aware of this based on yesterday’s interaction with Luke Harvey!
But, he is set to gallop at Newbury next Monday in front of press, so be ready to either tune in or mute your phone then.
Looking at the Fighting Fifth entries, we could be in for a bit of a belting race if all stand their ground! CONSTITUTION HILL is second-favourite behind THE NEW LION, ANZADAM is an intended runner for Willie Mullins, and even a horse like KARGESE could be interesting. If the main three stand their ground, that is an awesome three that would sell pay-per-view tickets. The old guard vs the up-and-coming star (THE NEW LION) vs the wise guys’ contender (ANZADAM).
As is the theme with this newsletter, rain is coming, it’s just whether we get enough sustained water for all sets of connections to give the green light for Newcastle later this month. We have to say, looking at that 9/4 for CON HILL is rather tempting. Furthermore, staring eye-to-eye with the 8/1 Champion Hurdle price is almost like staring across the dancefloor of the club and seeing someone you know you shouldn’t talk to, but a part of you wants to.
The next month of the jumps season is hopefully going to hot up massively, and this race could be the match that starts the fire as now these lads will have one less nemesis in their way as poor old STATE MAN is out for the season. He has been the horse of a lifetime for connections and we’re very sorry to see him injured. We really, really hope it’s nothing serious and he can return next season. He is a brilliant, brilliant horse.
13.30 LISTED YORTON MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE
Why not, let’s have a little preview of the Listed Yorton Mares’ Novices’ Chase at Bangor today, because there are some rather nice horses running. First things first, the ground. Again, like Cheltenham, they had rain yesterday, and more is set to come down while racing is on. Let’s work on soft ground, because that’s the likely outcome.
Starting with DIVA LUNA, she had a little bit of a weird year last season. She was beaten at 4/11 and 2/9, but she won at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day before finishing third in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in March.
Ben Pauling thinks she was never quite right last year, but whether that is just ‘hindsight chat’, who knows. The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle form has taken a hit or two thanks to both AIR OF ENTITLEMENT this month and SIXANDAHALF last month. Considering that, her form can be questioned, and she was beaten on seasonal reappearance. She does like soft ground.
Ahead of her in the market is JOYEUSE, and she was well-campaigned last year. She won a Betfair Hurdle (William Hill Hurdle) and she was second to WODHOOH at Cheltenham in December before Gordon Elliott’s mare improved 24lbs. The form of that race is so nice with TAKE NO CHANCES as well.
She should be fine on the ground, and she is clear on the ratings by 9lbs. It’s easy to forget just how easily she won at Newbury in February, and connections did want to try and make hay with her by running in the Morebattle Hurdle while she was still well-in, but they went to the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle instead, which was maybe touch too much to ask. She could be very good over fences.
QUEENS GAMBLE, a horse who is pretty impossible to not like, is next in the market, and we actually nearly lost her to a cruel double bout of colic (horrendous).
Thankfully, she survived, but from a punting perspective, one has to wonder if she will be the same (a) and also potentially need this run to build her career back up again (b). Her effectiveness on proper soft ground can also be questioned.
WYENOT is not a bad mare at all. She dotted up in a Donny Listed race in December, and she won a Cheltenham handicap hurdle off 123 on her seasonal reappearance in October. She also chased home GOLDEN ACE at the 2024 Cheltenham April Meeting.
Henry Daly sent her over to Punchestown for the Grade 1 Mares Champion Hurdle last season (weird), and she was suitably stuffed. She has drifted in the market, which is a worry, and maybe proper soft ground wouldn’t be for her. One to watch this season, nonetheless.
FINEST VIEW probably has a bit to find for Alan King. She has the chasing experience, in fairness, and she also has race fitness, so that is two things going for her. But she is rated 132, and she has been found out in handicap chases recently off this high mark. She has also been campaigned as a summer horse, so the more rain that falls, the worse her chance probably gets.
ALL THE GLORY completes the field. She is also race-fit, but the O’Neill’s are 1/30, and this is not their time of year for winners. We think this mare may have a handicap in mind later on this season.
Verdict: The top two in the market could be class horses this season so this is very much a watching brief for us. If we HAD to hang our hat on one? Probably DIVA LUNA simply because she looks bigger and was always meant to be going over fences.
RISK ON
The ground went against King’s filly debutante yesterday but she is one to follow if she see’s good ground next time out in similar company - mark our words.
Today we go for some slops plays:
13.00 FINE CASTING
A smaller stake than unusual on this lad but he’s too well handicapped to ignore and generally like its bottomless which he may just get today. good on his day, which is rare but Pauling going okay. 7/1 small ew.
13.15 PRESIDENT SCOTTIE
We like Lucinda’s fave but hers have been needing the run recently so we’re happy to take him on with PREZ SCOTTIE who can run well fresh and looks well handicapped (he bumped into WHITE RHINO last season). Yard is flying. 5/2 standard bet.
14.00 RICHMOND LAKE
Will love the slog versus a few who really like top of the ground. Runs well fresh and has had wind op which may seem him win easily here. Yard only had one winner recently so only a half bet at 9/2.
Very small less than beer money ew treble on the above paying 153/1.
14.30 PLAYFUL FOX
Bred to be the best here and will love the ground. He’s a half to UNEXPECTED PARTY so if he’s even remotely like him, could win this easily. Standard bet at 2/1 and beer money on Williams’ TAILS OF GOLD at 22’2 to hedge as apparently he’s good (but they might be waiting with him for another day). If TAILS OF GOLD tails off (pun intended, track him!).
Win acca on PLAYFUL FOX & 14.20 CAPTAIN BUTLER & 14.50 DERRYHASSEN PADDY 15.00 SHABALKO DHERM & 15.20 THE HATCHET paying 50/1. We’re taking a chance on Lucinda’s in the 14.50 first time out but they absolutely love him. Beer money bet.
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