Equinties - Cheltenham day 4

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Gm Equinauts

Well, fuck me...yesterday was a fucking bloodbath for punters as three of the 'bankers' of the day in MIGHTY POTTER, SHISHKIN and LUCCIA plus the twitter horse of the week BLAZING KHAL all completely bombed out.

This newsletter tried to warn everyone about SHISHKIN not being reliable enough to bet, LUCCIA not going on the ground and BLAZING KHAL, well, just being a BLAZING PILE OF KHRAP. (MIGHTY POTTER was a surprise tbf). 

No one listened to us about BLAZING KHRAP. "But but but all the cool kids on twitter in their little cult, insider info, fake pro gambling circle were laughing at everyone who wasn't backing him".

Well they can carry on laughing through tears while they chase. 

Right, lets just dive tf in. 

Gold Cup day preview 

Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle 

I think one thing that is certain tomorrow is that Willie Mullins will train the winner of the Triumph, but which horse will it be?

LOSSIEMOUTH is just about the favourite having been this ‘unbeaten horse’ heading into the DRF. 

A loss on her record to stablemate GALA MARCEAU, who reappears today, looks worse on paper than it was as she was badly hampered in-running by JOURDEFETE - she did very well to get within two lengths of the winner and she received seven pounds from the talking horse, BLOOD DESTINY.

That talking horse has been doing the rounds on the preview night circuit, however, having been ante-post favourite for a few weeks, he is now 2/1 and has to give weight away to his market rivals - the form isn’t there but it’s more of a ‘trust the talk’ horse. 

ZENTA is another for Mullins who commands a look at having won well the last day - the form might not be worth much but she is ex-French, as are the others, and should deal with the ground. 

Our view: BLOOD DESTINY's form looks good to the eye having won 'unchallenged' lto but it was against a load of badly bred yokes making LOSSIEMOUTH the horse to beat. I'd normally side with colts but this filly is good and she can capitalize on the allowance. 

County Hurdle

Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins target this race, between them they've won the last 8 renewals bar one (4-3 to Mullins). 

PEMBROKE has been squeezed into favourite this morning. He's by super sire (and CONSTITUTION HILL daddy) BLUE BRESIL. I've always liked this horse and he comes into this off a nice weight.

The Willie Mullins horse prominent in the betting is HUNTERS YARN. He beat a well-touted horse called IMAGINE (whispers for him in the Martin Pipe) so you could follow this form line. He'll go in the ground too. 

SHARJAH is an old household favourite. He comes into this holding the best form but with that, top weight. He's sure to run a big race.

GIN COCO is another British representative and has good form behind Champion Hurdle contender I LIKE TO MOVE IT. He's done nothing wrong and is sure to be a live player in this to go with Harry Fry's fine second place effort in the Mares with LOVE ENVOI. Burke jocked up on her too. 

Our view: We're going to stick with the trainers who target this and go with PEMBROKE. We'll keep it British for the hedge too and have a small ew with GIN COCO. Take the most places on offer (most 6).

Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Wide open this one so watch your bollocks. 

CORBETTS CROSS, now owned by JP McManus, comes into today having prepped over two miles, yes two miles, to beat FOUND A FIFTY by a head - he showed he’s a good animal the last day, it’s just whether he can step up in the distance. 

Little story about CORBETTS CROSS. Friends to the people who sold JP CORBETTS CROSS actually bumped into big JP recently at a recent equestrian event. They had a little chat and JP told them to have a good bet on CORBETTS CROSS with the promise of their stake back if he doesn't win. That's bullish. 

Past him, it’s a seemingly very open race. 

Elliott has three in the race - THREE CARD BRAG, FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU & SEARCH FOR GLORY. 

TCB will enjoy the ground but whether he is this standard is a question, FDC is your typical ‘battle hardened’ Bartlett horse who has run 10 times already, and SFG is the choice of Davy at 28/1. Strong hand for the master of Cullentra. 

Of the rest, Nicholls and co are bullish about a big run from STAY AWAY FAY, MONTY’S STAR beat SFG and HIDDENVALLEY LAKE lto when in receipt of weight and Henry de Bromhead thinks he will ‘step up massively’, and SEABANK BISTRO represents the Champion Bumper form from last year which looks to be rubbish. 

Our view: If JP is bullish on his new acquisition CORBETTS CROSS then so are we but the price is too short. That does also mean the Mullins horses SEABANK BISTRO cant be ignored. CC only just beat him when receiving weight (plus claimer) so off level weights, 16's is way too big for this lad by WALK IN THE PARK. We're siding with the big galloping THREE CARD BRAG (best form in race) and SEABANK BISTRO. 

The Gold Cup 

This is a proper race for the ages.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS - class act, DRF was worrying in truth as jumping was not amazing, but his engine is massive.

A PLUS TARD - the big money mover, bad in Betfair Chase and big ask to win recovering from that but De Bromhead can do no wrong this week. 

BRAVEMANSGAME - underestimated for King George winner, Cobden thinks ground will be fine? I'm not so sure and despite my love for this horse, I'm taking him on. 

NOBLE YEATS - sure to stay and top jock Sean Bowen aboard but previous runs around Cheltenham would be a worry?

STATTLER - solid, will stay, and likes the course. Little negatives despite a bit to find on form. 

CONFLATED - underestimated, seems to like the track, and improving at a good rate of knots plus the ground worsening is a big positive. 

MINELLA INDO - old guard, different prep this year, but current form would probably not be enough. Take on. 

PROTEKTORAT - disappointed in ‘prep run’ early this year, but his Betfair Chase victory was mightily impressive and has to be respected in this ground. 

AHOY SENOR - quirky but Lucinda thinks she has got him right now, engine is there and he’s always maturing. Is he good enough to beat the Irish?

Our view: we think GDC is the real deal. 

Hunters Chase 

The fave is the hype horse in this but has it to prove having not been round Cheltenham before. The fences at Cheltenham are harder to jump that in Ireland where they are lower and horses go quicker. He'll need to jumper better if he is going to beat last time winner BILLAWAY.

Our view: We think this is a two horse race and at the prices, BILLAWAY looks a cracking ew to do it again. 

Grade 2 Mares’ Chase

The final Graded race of the Cheltenham Festival, we could see something special. 

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY vs IMPERVIOUS. 

The latter has bolted up in egg and stone races this season and the form has been franked from lto thanks to BRIDES HILL, so if she can keep jumping straight, which isn’t a given, she’s a massive player. 

IMPERVIOUS is on the other end as she has good form with some strong novice chasers this season and was being touted as an Arkle horse for a while - she is proper solid and JOURNEY WITH ME, the second on her last start, has won at Naas since, so her form is standout. 

The rest will have a tough time getting into it, but Elliott is confident of a big run from RIVIÈRE D’ETEL, last year’s fifth in the Arkle - ignore her last run and her form with FERNY HOLLOW is belting and 20/1 is massive for one against the field. 

Our view:  It SHOULD be a two mares race between the top two in the betting, so whoever you pick you're not going to go too far wrong but we're sticking with Mullins (we think Mullins will have a huge day) and will side with ALLEGORIE DE VASSY.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Like the County, this is a handicapping nightmare to read but as aforementioned in the newsletter, our hat will be on IMAGINE for Gordon Elliott.

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Cheltenham bets

Last day Equinauts... let's fucking smash it and good luck with whatever you are on. 

13.30 LOSSIEMOUTH

14.10 PEMBROKE & GIN COCO 

14.50 THREE CARD BRAG & SEABANK BISTRO

15.30 GDC

16.10 BILLAWAY

16.50 ALLEGORIE DE VASSY

17.30 IMAGINE