Equinties - Cheltenham day 3

Gm Equinauts

We said Tuesday was a notoriously tough day and boy was it just that!

Punters were licking their lips when the first two Tuesday favourites BALLYBURN and FACT TO FILE obliged by country mile and the only question they had about the last leg, EL FABIOLO, was why hadn’t the bookies paid everyone yet?

Well, this happened:

And like that, the bookies had their day.

Punters 1 - Bookies 1, round 3…ding ding!

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BIG RACE PREVIEWS

13.30 GRADE 1 TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE

The Willie juggernaut carries on. FACILE VEGA has always been high on the Cheltenham worksheet. He won the bumper and was second in the Supreme last year. A new trip today, over 3 miles which should play to his strengths somewhat, his jumping hasn’t always been great so they should go that yard slower.

The Skelton team are on a roll, with the help of the handicapper! GREY DAWNING was an easy winner last time out against APPLE AWAY who got thrashed on the first day.

GINNY’S DESTINY has taken the scalp off Skeltons recently, their form is entwined. He’s from the winning camp last year who had STAGE STAR romp home.  Nicholls will be hoping he runs better than STAY AWAY FAY did yesterday!

IROKO is the shrewdy’s bet. He won the Martin Pipe, then got beat at Aintree by APPLE AWAY, a nice form tie with GREY DAWNING.

ZANAHIYR has ran 26 times now, 7 wins to his name and nearly £300k. Gordon Elliott has had 6 placed horses this year, this lad has been placed twice in the champion hurdle so he first ins the track. Looks like he’ll have to put in a mighty performance to get his head in front though.

LETSBECLEARABOUTIT will try and defy his age, no horse has won this aged 8 or older. He has been placed in Grade 1 company and ran a creditable 4th in the Albert Bartlett last year.

DJELO won his Grade 2 in December and like most of Venetias, for whatever reason he won’t mind the conditions underfoot. Certainly needs to improve but lightly raced and can possibly run a big race.

Verdict: FACILE VEGA is from the best training establishment in the world. They strut into the stadium like the Jamaican Sprinting team do in the Olympics. A step up to 2 miles 4 furlongs is very interesting. Not a banker. But this trip looks cosy for him being out of QUEVEGA who won the Mares Hurdle 6 times over 2m4f and the World Series 4 times which is over 3 miles.

14.10 CLASS 1 PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE 

7 horses between 5/1 and 10/1 at the time of writing (so tread carefully) and in those is another stinky plot it looks like for team Skelton in LE MILOS.

LE MILOS is a 3 miler through and through, even ran in the Grand National (4m+) last year. Ran over 2m3f lto and was dropped 4lbs. Trip will suit, yard in form, looks like a plot but at the age of 9 he might be vulnerable to an improver.

CLEATUS POOLAW for Gordon Elliott hasn’t been out of the first two in 7 lifetime runs. Looks like a step up in trip will suit, big player.

GAOTH CHUIL trained by Rubys Dad, the son of Derby winner HARZAND has improved with nearly every run. The form of his last run looks very solid indeed. Jockey takes off 5lbs.

ICARE ALLEN for Mullins has ran well before off his mark of 142 but it’s high enough for him. Ground and trip will be fine, yard obviously in great form and he’s only 6 so could still be on the upgrade.

CUTHBERT DIBBLE represents the Twiston-Davies team who seem to be in the same health as Henderson’s lot. Doesn’t look the best handicapped so holds place claims at best.

GABBY’S CROSS and POPOVA for the de Bromhead team. The former is rated 127 in Ireland but the British handicapper hasn’t been so forgiving with a mark of 133. Darragh O’Keefe was on him lto and keeps the ride. Gun jockey Rachel Blackmore rides the latter, again the handicapper hasn’t been kind but the trip and ground will suit and stable going very well. 

FAROUCK D’ALENE fell in the Brown Advisory and was off for a year and a half. Back now as a 9yo but seems in good health. Bit long in the tooth now but has class and was only beaten a neck behind GAOTH CHUIL lto. Jock takes off a handy 7lbs.

Verdict: Very tough race but we found the winner THIRD WIND two years ago so let’s try again. The Skeltons LE MILOS could be thrown in… again! But the nod goes to GAOTH CHUIL whose improving and the form of his last race can’t be ignored.

14.50 GRADE 1 RYANAIR CHASE

ENVOI ALLEN won this race 12 months ago. Put in a tremendous run lto back in November to just be denied by GERRI COLOMBE who is 9/1 for the GC. In form jock and trainer, big player.

BANBRIDGE has been kept fresh having only one run in 11 months. He won at kempton, a right handed flat track so not the best prep, beating PIC D’ORHY by a length but was receiving 3lbs. PD’O upheld the form winning a Gr1 on his next start. Wants good ground. 

STAGE STAR is the joint highest rated in the field alongside CONFLATED. He loves Cheltenham having won there 3 times including last years Gr1 Turners Novices’ Chase. Won the paddy power Gold Cup off 155 and then was pulled up nto. He runs well fresh so is a big player for the home team.

CONFLATED has unseated his jockey on his last two starts after coming a very close 3rd to GERRI COLOMBE and ENVOI ALLEN. Would have been a good third lto in the Irish Gold Cup. Looks to be better suited to 3m.

Similar to Conflated, CAPODANNO for McManus and Mullins looks better suited over further having won on his last start over 3m+ beating The Real Whacker and the novice Stay Away Fay. Place claims at best. 

PROTEKTORAT and AHOY SENOR are Grade 1 winners in the past but look to be on the decline. They are both very capable and will give their connections a great day but they look up against it.

Not sure what FIL DOR is doing in the race. He needs to improve a stone. GA LAW was 5th in this race last year, could fill the same position this year.

Verdict: Think it’s out of ENVOI ALLEN and STAGE STAR (BANBRIDGE doesn’t want soft), Paul Nicholls isn’t enjoying the best festival but he can get one ready and this has been STAGE STARS target all year. He loves the track, ground no probs, stable and jock in form. ENVOI ALLEN is possibly a year too old now.

15.30 GRADE 1 STAYERS’ HURDLE

We have to say, when most of the racing has been pretty boring and competitive, this one is a brilliant renewal and one fans will very much looking forward to seeing the household names such as PAISLEY PARK, NOBLE YEATS FLOORING PORTER and DASHEL DRASHER.

We’re writing this the day before and as yet, Gordon Elliott is yet to have a winner (no help from Jack Kennedy who hasn’t been his best this week) but surely TEAHUPOO is his best chance of the week?

TEAHUPOO should have been a lot closer to winning last year but Davey had to switch the horse more than he tapped his feet on Dancing With The Stars and at 7yo, he’s up against largely a field who should be retired. He’s the horse to beat.

Fergal O’Brien will need a nice pick me up after losing HIGHLAND HUNTER on Tuesday so sad, and CRAMBO could do that. Fergal has been purring over him for months now - letting anyone who will listen that he’s a strong contender having improved since his last Ascot win when beating PAISLEY PARK. In behind those two was DASHEL DRASHER so that’s a good portion of the field beat.

SIR GERHARD is a fascinating runner in this. He has one of the biggest engines in racing and now reverts back to hurdles because his jumping is a little questionable. Will he stay? Course he bloody will. He’s a good point winner and 3x bumper winner (including the Champion bumper no less!) and bumpers require serious stamina due to the nature of the race. Fascinating, fascinating runner.

NOBLE YEATS was the gamble of the ‘22 Grand National. This lad is a funny horse to watch. Just when you think he’s finished and about to disappear out the back of the telly, he switches on the after burners and comes flying home strong. He has similar form to CRAMBO in that he beat PAISLEY PARK by a short head lto. He was lucky to win, PAISLEY PARK simply ran out of track.

NOBLE YEATS is 7’s and PAISLEY PARK is 14’s - that doesn’t make sense.

FLOORING PORTER hasn’t shown up for a while, he’d be hard to have any faith in but we’re looking forward to his owners interview on ITV racing - they’re always fun to watch.

HOME BY THE LEE was a talking horse this time last year and despite his weird and wide route round, never looked like winning. One to take on.

SIRE DU BERLAIS is the old boy at 12yo and sprung a huge surprise last year when winning at 33/1. Not many saw that coming.

PAISLEY PARK is huge at 14’s but he is always unloved in the market. The poor old boy has a horrible habit of coming 2nd but arguably should have beat NOBLE YEATS lto.

WE can’t imagine the others have a chance.

Verdict: TEAHUPOO was our pick last year but wasn’t given the best of rides, it’s certainly his to lose this year. We think he has most of the old boys in the field covered. It’s the new boys on the block CRAMBO and SIR GERHARD who will give him most to worry about. Well, we say new kids on the block but SIR G has been around for a while and has bagged two Festival wins… but you know what we mean, new to the race. SIR GERHARD is an out and out machine on his day and he’s who’ll we’ll hang our hat on.

16.10 PLATE HANDICAP CHASE 

In the weeks leading up to the Plate, CREBILLY was the well-backed favourite and is one of Johnny Dineen’s best bets of the week. He won at Exeter lto and was only put up one pound - he goes around Cheltenham and Jonjo likes to line one up. 

However, the horse that has come for money is Richard Bandey’s THEATRE MAN. Much like CREBILLY, he has GINYY’S DESTINY form having ran-on well behind him at Cheltenham on Trials Day. We’ll know more about the strength of this form after the first race, but it seems like this trip would suit him better than three miles and he is fairly unexposed. These two are taking up a good 20% of the market, leaving the rest at nice prices if you want to take them on.

SAINT FELICIEN won on heavy at Gowran Park and ran to an RPR of 133, though he has to lumber a mark of 146 around. 

He’s unexposed in handicaps though his form wouldn’t scream ‘well-handicapped’. Both SHAKEM UP’ARRY and IL RIDOTO have similar form as they ran in this race last year and finished third and sixth respectively. Paul Nicholls gave his runner as a dark horse for the meeting, though the yard form this week would be worrying, and Ben Pauling has always rated his lad. 

At the declaration stage, IN EXCELSIS DEO was an interesting inclusion in this race rather than the Grand Annual for Harry Fry and JP. He has promised a big pot all season yet he hasn’t been raised in the handicap that much and he could hit the frame off 137. The problem is his jumping, he jumped like a fridge lto. If he has suddenly turned into a stag then he could win this.

Verdict: CREBILLY won easily lto, he should be bang there and IL RIDOTO is a very good horse. Two there… let’s hope the British run well (and Nicholls hasn’t got a bug!).

16.50 GRADE 2 MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE

This could potentially be a very good race to watch; BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD has had Elliott purring in the build up.

JADE DE GRUGY has her own loyal fans - easy how you read that! 

This should end up a brilliant battle between the two now DYSART ENOS has been scratched. 

Everyone is looking forward to seeing BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. Gordon Elliot and Jack Kennedy both say “She’s different”. Presume this is in a good way because she is rock solid in the market at 6/4. A €310,000 purchase by Gigginstown who have campaigned some nice mares over the years.

Kenneth Alexander has also owned some lovely mares, not least the champion HONEYSUCKLE. This filly, JADE DE GRUGY has got a long way to go but she’s making her own waves. Unbeaten, just like her market rival. We wonder whose bubble will burst today?

Not sure it’s worth mentioning the others although we better mention De Bromheads who grow another leg at the festival. BIRDIE OR BUST needs to make up 24 lengths on the Gordon Elliott horse. She’s the type that could run a PB and still come 4th.

Verdict: BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD could be very special. She is 2 from 2 in bumpers and 3 from 3 in hurdles. Everyone is hoping that this is a good tussle all the way up the straight.

17.30 CLASS 2 KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP CHASE 

This is often a hard race for punters to get right. MOUNT IDA the shortest price in recent years to go in at 3’s, the rest mainly double digit odds or close to it anyway!

Loads of horses so lets just look at the potential plots…

JP’s INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN has been backed in overnight. He’s top weight and just gets into this race being rated 145. He looks to be the classic ‘group horse in a handicap’, in this case graded as he’s finished not toooo far behind GAELIC WARRIOR a couple of times. That said, he hasn’t won since his his novice hurdling days so we’d be keen to take on today.

COOL SURVIVOR is a bit similar, he hasn’t won since his novice hurdle days either but at least has gone close in chases - his close second to QUILIXIOS reads well and could mean he’s well handicapped.

ANGELS DAWN won the race last year. In fact, he gagged up last year and won more easily than the margin suggests. Carries a fair bit of weight now, trainer needed to do a Dan Skelton.

WHERE IT ALL BEGAN hosed up lto over a bit further than todays race - thats a big green tick in the betting box. Where’s the ceiling with his improvement? Well, he’s a half to RATHVINDEN rated 158 so on blood he could be well handicapped.

BOWTOGREATNESS is a proper stayer and apparently well handicapped - that’s what Pauling keeps harping on about anyway. He’ll stay all day but might just lack the class of some of the others, so would need to be really well handicapped!

If you like BOWTOGREATNESS then you have to like ANNUAL INVICTUS (form lines with FORWARD PLAN). Probably a good ground horse though so tentatively drawing a line through him.

DAILY PRESENT won lto on handicap debut so could be anything and carries not much weight. His point for hasn’t worked out though.

Venetia runs CLOUDY GLEN who finished 2nd in this in ‘21, the year before she won it with CHAMBARD - the race is clearly targeted. Old boy now at 11. Venetia runs more in this race… CEPAGE and DEMANT. The latter looked very good on British debut. This is a big hike in trip though and he didn’t look overly big when we saw him at Newbury. Venetia might struggle to regain her title in this.

FAKIR D’ALENE looks plotted for this. 4th in this race in ‘22 and done nothing of note since bar a good third in a Grade 3 behind COKO BEACH rated 160.

Verdict: They’ve all been targeted at the race but some trainers are better than others and WHEREITALLBEGAN & FAKIR D’ALENE looks like they’ve been targeted at this race best.

RISK ON

13.30 FACILE VEGA 2/1

14.10 GOATH CHUIL 15/2 EW

14.50 STAGE STAR 5/1

15.30 SIR GERHARD 13/2 EW

16.10 CREBILLY 9/2 & IL RIDOTO 16/1 EW

16.50 BRIGHTERSDAYSAHEAD 6/4

17.30 WHEREITALLBEGAN 7/1 & FAKIR D’ALENE 30/1 EW

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