Equinties - Cheltenham day 3

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Gm Equinauts

It’s day three and sadly we are over the hump of the Cheltenham Festival... dare I say I'd secretly love to see a Saturday.

Anyway, stick with us and we’ll continue to have days like these.

But before we get to the action and like 16.50 mares novices hurdle, I want to dedicate this newsletter to young Jack De Bromhead.

Now, let's dive tf in.

Day 3 preview

Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase 

I thought this opening race of the day would be massive for a punter tbh as I thought this competition bet was coming in, but alas, GERRI COLOMBE next literally one more yard to the line.

We could see a potential Gold Cup horse for next year deliver the goods in this race. Yes, that’s right, it’s MIGHTY POTTER time.

He was clinical in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the DRF though he still made some mistakes at his fences – a super clean round of jumping will see him take a lot of beating. 

APPRECIATE IT is the next best-priced horse in the race at 11/4 – he’s the elder statesman of the lineup and is finally stepping up in trip, a trip that should see him do better, however, has he not just got too many issues about him to be trusting? 

BANBRIDGE is OUT on account of the ground but isnt one to forget about. He was good on his last start at Cheltenham as he jumped extremely well. One to watch out for on good ground.

BALCO COASTAL ties in with GERRI COLOMBE on form, the horse who really should have won yesterday but it's still tough to make a case for him.

Our view: MIGHT POTTER will trot in and I'll our competition winner will hate GERRI COLOMBE forever.

14.10 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

THANKSFORTHEHELP is strong fave in this otherwise seemingly open race and looks a plot job for JP. He cantered home in front of 2021's Ballymore 4th BEAR GHYLLS lto and a repeat of that performance with a little more 'trying' might warrant all this money for him.

What can take him on? Well it'll probs be a good idea to hedge the fave with one from Gordons yard who came into this Festival with arguably his best squad ever. MAXXUM hits some stats for this race, winning the qualifier at Leopardstown which has been a race rich in winners. Also for Gordon, LEVEL NEVERENDING could be a plot for him. The race he was 3rd in lto has hisorically been a good trial for this. The winner last year came from the race and the second ALAPHILLIPE had ran in it too.

Our view: The prices in this race allow for you to have a good bet and hedge. Dont be scared to back more than one in the race. THANKSFORTHEHELP and then the two Gordon horses LEVEL NEVERENDING at 25's and MAXXUM at 6's.

14.50 Grade 1 Ryanair Chase 

From one odds on fav to another, SHISHKIN is looking to make up for his Champion Chase flop last year in the Ryanair. 

He has course form, soft ground form, has just bounced back to form, and is rated 174. Everything is in his favour, however, this is national hunt racing at the end of the day. 

Stablemates BLUE LORD and JANIDIL share the 6/1 second favorite spot and Paul Townend is on the former. 

BLUE LORD's last trips to Prestbury Park saw him fall in a weak Supreme when miles back in second and finish third in the Arkle last year, so his course form could potentially be crabbed?

As for the latter, he was second in this race behind the brilliant ALLAHO last year and had a very long season, something that could explain his fall at Fairyhouse and PU effort in the Punchestown Gold Cup – he was fat as a pig lto and won when unfancied, so on top form he could be there. 

FURY ROAD ran GALOPIN DES CHAMPS close the last day over an un-ideal distance, so a return to 2m4f could suit better. 

Our view: Like everyone else, we have no idea if SHISHKIN trots up or bounces... so, at the prices (I dont like 4/5 for that risk) we're going to side with a solid each way bet on BLUE LORD at 6's just in case SHISHKIN pulls up.

15.30 Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle 

No excuses here: soft ground, good preps and and the best prep has arguably come from the now favourite, TEAHUPOO

He bolted up by 15 lengths lto on his first start at three miles, a race that came nearly two months after slaying Honeysuckle for the first-ever time in the Hatton’s Grace. The ground is there for him and he is a tough one to knock. 

BLAZING KHAL is the ultimate Racing Twitter 'shroods' horse. Fuck I hate that shit banter. Racing Twitter is literally full of people who have no chat and simply recycle others for appearance.

Anyway, I know something about racing, he doesn't win.

Bar this yoke, there is a smattering of last year’s Stayers horses dotted around.  

FLOORING PORTER is back for the first time since his defeat to HOME BY THE LEE, a horse who was sixth in this contest last year, PAISLEY PARK could be having one of his last hoorahs now being 11, and KLASSICAL DREAM has had a mega break (not on purpose) coming into the day. KLASSICAL DREAM is mustard off a break, but I don't think he quite stays stays if you know what I mean.

It's a good race.

Our view: TEAHUPOO for us to collateralize on that HONEYSUCKLE form with the French raider GOLD TWEET to place.

16.10 Magners Plate Handicap Chase

JP heading the market again with SO SCOTTISH. You just know the Scottish are hitting this hard purely on a name basis and their money could well deliver tbh. He's another by MARTALINE - proper French sire who's horses love soft going so you know he'll go in the mud today.

The pedigree of this race is owned by HAUT EN COULEURS. I love SAINTS DES SAINTS horses and he's out of a MUHTATHIR dam. A proper, proper sloppy ground jumpers cross who might, might just be carrying too much weight?

As for the others, one of my favorite horses in MIDNIGHT RIVER is in the line up. He'll love conditions today and he's tough as nails as is FRERO BANBOU for Venetia the slop Queen.

Our view: We like HAUT EN COULEURS on his handicap debut and to defy top weight. He's the class horse in this race. A small hedge with Venetia's FRERO BANBOU at 10's with yard form a slight worry hence small stake.

The Jack De Bromhead Grade 2 Mares’ Novice Hurdle 

LUCCIA was touted by Noodle arms Nico as possibly the best novice hurdler this season.

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old is unbeaten and has (some) soft ground form from Sandown last year making her a little hard to knock tbh.

LOT OF JOY was the big market mover from Tuesday onwards for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend and now she is solid at 6/1 – no penalty to carry for her and she was second to a good horse three starts ago and third in the Irish Cesarewitch which is arguably better form than LUCCIA.

It’s then 11/1 and bigger about the rest with MAGICAL ZOE and her soft ground Down Royal win catching the eye, but the middle area of the market is so strong that you’d have to be sweet on one to back it. 

UNDER CONTROL is apparently a horse that Nicky Henderson is looking forward to running so maybe keep one eye on her moving forward.

Our view: LUCCIA has looked so good this season but I just simply cannot get past her pedigree. I think she's better on a sounder surface and when up against better bred horses for the slop, up the hill, she'll blow up. FOXY GIRL is our ew selection if you're not going to lay LUCCIA. Another by SAINTS DES SAINTS so ground no issue. Trained by the man who'll desperately want to win the race named after his son, Jack, she's so unexposed and could be anything and has the pedigree to be good. Blackmore on.

17.30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase

What out, amateur's jocks about and we're staying out of this one. YOU DONT NEED IT.

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Cheltenham bets

Small sizing on the 16.50 as it's too tough and the Champion Chase is best watched in our view but you'll see we've gone with the British today in a number of races. LFG.

13.30 MIGHTY POTTER

14.10 THANKSFORTHEHELP, MAXXUM & LEVEL NEVERENDING

14.50 BLUE LORD

15.30 TEAHUPOO

16.10 HAUT EN COULEURS & FRERO BANBOU

16.50 FOXY GIRL

17.30 /