Equinties - Cheltenham day 2

Gm Equinauts

Well, the first day of the Cheltenham Festival did NOT disappoint! There were going changes;

deserved winners;

superstar babes;

and of course - newsletter winners;

Ready for day 2? We’re, LFG!

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BIG RACE PREVIEWS

Please note, the XC has been abandoned and as such we have adjusted the race times below.

13.45 GRADE 1 NOVICES’ HURDLE

BALLYBURN has been talked about in all the previews as if he can’t lose. He’s only lost once in his life and that was on his hurdle debut to FIREFOX who was third yesterday in the Supreme. 

He beat the Gr1 supreme winner by 7 lengths lto over 2m. He stays, he jumps and he has speed, he looks the real deal.

ILE ATLANTIQUE looked good lto, where he had to be brave to keep on stoutly over 2m4f but was just beaten. He looks to be more speed than stamina so he’s a fascinating contender.

PREDATORS GOLD by MASKED MARVEL whose progeny stay longer than the mother in law. He’ll be running on late and is a very solid ew angle. 

HANDSTANDS won a Listed race lto and the form hasn’t stacked up and he was getting weight. Needs big improvement to trouble the judge.

JINGKO BLUE comes from the out of form Henderson yard, he put up a monster performance lto carrying top weight in a competitive handicap.

JIMMY DU SEUIL Looks to be the stables 4th string, looks like he should be in the supreme on the evidence of his previous runs. 

MERCUREY looked awesome on debut but he’s given Mullins a headache in between then and now with injuries, place claims at best.

Verdict: It’s really hard to look past BALLYBURN, he ticks all the boxes. PREDATORS GOLD is picked to follow him home. A speccy straight forecast advised at 6/1.

14.30 GRADE 1 NOVICES’ CHASE

The next GALOPIN DES CHAMPS… FACT TO FILE is the supposed to be the real deal. Chucked straight over fences, we’re not sure what to make of his run with GAELIC WARRIOR, flattered obviously, bit of an odd race by he looked a monster. 

He he tries a new trip today, up to 3 miles, which should really be within range having won a p2p, of course it is a bit different in Grade 1 company and on very soft ground. Course form is ticked as he was second in the bumper last year. Currently 10/11 and another Mullins hot pot. 

3 smart horses in behind in the market. 

STAY AWAY FAY, last year’s Albert Bartlett winner. Got found out against some seasoned campaigners last time out at Cheltenham, but probably fair to say he acquitted himself well as a novice. A £305,000 HIT (horse in training) purchase, the owners would be happy if he was a potential Gold Cup horse after this run. 

MONTY’S STAR is a serious jumper, (cashmere), and he comes here fresh. In his early days he was beaten by STAY AWAY FAY in a point and then was pulled up when the re-opposed at Cheltenham last year. He could run a PB and still end up coming 3rd to both STAY AWAY FAY and FACT TO FILE. That said, De Bromheads come alive at Cheltenham and he’ll certainly be staying on. but he needs to drastically improve.

SANDOR CLEGANE is on a big drift. A 3rd place finish in the Albert Bartlett last year reads ok; STAY AWAY FAY won. However he got smashed up by EMBASSY GARDENS last time out and that horse ran below par yesterday (maybe the hood didn’t help him though?). Difficult to suggest he’ll win, if you like him have a go with extra places.

AMERICAN MIKE has been supplemented. He was a good second to FACILE VEGA in the bumper on heavy going. He has beaten FACT TO FILE before on heavy going which is worth noting. Gordon will be desperate this goes well and the 3 miles may well play into his favour.

On all evidence GIOVINCO needs improvement. A couple of lengths behind Nicholls’ at Sandown in December is looking ok. A shocker at Kempton, when IL EST FRANCAIS won the Kauto Star, he got pulled up. He won last time out on heavy ground though. Lacks track experience and may well find one or two too good.

Verdict: Every man and his dog seem to be on FACT TO FILE which makes us question the price. Why is he only a shade of odds on? Why not 2/1 on? Let’s find out, we can’t have him beat so 4/5 is either a gift or a big red flag.

15.15 CLASS 1 CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE

BUILT BY BALLYMORE comes from a good family and his half brother runs in the Grand Annual Challenge Cup tomorrow. Trainer and owners tried to win this pot last year with AN EPIC SONG but got done by a the Skelton x Langer Dan plot (we backed). They’re back for revenge and given the suspect ride by Slevin lto… could be well handicapped even though his trainer says he’s not!

He has to take on SA MAJESTE who is supposedly the ‘good thing’ of the Willie Mullins contingent. SA MAJESTE is a French bred import who’s had time to acclimatise and is so unexposed it’s hard to judge how good he could be. He beat NOBLE YEATS albeit over a trip too short for him, but that’s still good form. Tough one. Beating NOBLE YEATS and being given a mark of 140 looks lenient, but you’d have to question if the runner-up was running on his merits? 

LANGER DAN… Ah, LANGER DAN. How Dan Skelton gets away with doing what he does with LANGER DAN, we will never know. We don’t need to talk much about this lad - he won the race last year and has been laid out for it today.

DODDIETHEGREAT needs to turn up for Hendo. He’s had a terrible Cheltenham so far and this lad running badly would really dampen the mood even more. Step up in trip is exactly what he needs, he’s been described as a secret weapon by Hendo. Let’s hope he doesn’t BOMB. Bad pun. 

At interesting prices, JIGORO finished second to MYSTICAL POWER two starts ago and a step up in trip would see him go better, so stepping into handicap company should be of interest.

MIGHT I looks a bit plotty back over hurdles, he could run a big race, as could GUARD YOUR DREAMS who is about 10lbs well in on old form. Could this be the master plan?

Verdict: Different ends of the market for these picks. BALLYADAM looks more at home over hurdles and will stay in the mud and GUARD YOUR DREAMS 30/1 is too well handicapped to ignore. It’ll just be funny if LANGER DAN wins.

16.00 GRADE 1 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

The rematch was on, now it’s not.

EL FABIOLO and JONBON have faced off only twice and it’s one a piece but due to Hendo’s lot struggling to even complete this week, in a dramatic turn of events, JONBON has been pulled by Hendo!

With the form Nicky Henderson is in right now, ypu can see why he’s made that decision. It’s extremley sad to see and one has to feel sorry for Nicky who will be heartbroken with how things have gone.

In fact, Hendo’s yard form is so poor you might even want to take JONBON on with EDWARDSTONE for second place.

Verdict: EL FABIOLO for the perms - the only thing that beats him is gravity. The speccy the forecast with EDWARDSTONE could be a good play nearly 3/1.

CLASS 2 X-COUNTRY CHASE - ABANDONED

Last years Festival NAP, DELTA WORK, looked laid out for this race again. We napped him last year. In fact, we’ve backed the winner in 4 of the last 5 renewals but sadly, this year, the race has been abandoned.

We move on.

16.50 CLASS GRAND ANNUAL CHALLENGE CUP

A British favourite! (At the time of writing anyway). Evan Williams’ progressive LIBBERTY HUNTER is on a three timer (should be four time but fell) with mustard Cobden on. L HUNTER’s lto form got a little nod today by MATATA running well in the Arkle. That could put L HUNTER close to third in that race - which, in translation, is good form. Ground no issue, but where is his ceiling?

SAINT ROI looks a graded horse in a handicap - whether that’s by accident or design, we’ll know by 17.00. He’s top weight for a reason anyway.

MADARA won for the Brits on Irish soil lto as Leopardstown. He did it very easily too! He looked a different class that day but this race is harder. Although connections considered the Plate for a while, slower conditions has meant MADARA is a runner in this race and he has a a nice improving profile. As a five-year-old, he could continue to improve, but one has to question where his ceiling is. 

SAINT ROI has been many people’s idea of the typical plot for this race, but there are some doubts. He has taken an age to get over his fences this season, which wouldn’t scream plot job, and he still has to carry a high weight. It’ll be some performance if he delivers the goods.

The same can be said for MASKADA who has a lot of weight to carry considering she won this race last year off an eight-pound higher mark. This wouldn’t have been the plan as she would have been thought of as a Mares’ Chase horse, so that could be a small worry?

At bigger prices, HARDY DU SEUIL is one to look at for Jamie Snowden. He needed his last run and has been kept fresh to run at Cheltenham - Snowden thinks it has a good chance, and this has been the long-term plan. 

Verdict: This is hard and probably a non-betting race for us but we’d hang our hats on Snowden’s HARDY DE SEUIL and SA FUREUR.

17.30 CHAMPION BUMPER

It goes without saying that Champion bumpers are really quite different to the every day, run of the mill bumpers we analyse in the racing day to day. Normally, not even a handful of horses can win bumpers in the week, where as in this Champion bumper, they’re nearly all last time out winners and aspiring machines.

Given the lack of form to go off, the market will be key in this race. The market WILL organise itself late and give pointers. Anyway, let’s look at the pedigree’s.

Mullins has 9 in this renewal. Gordon Elliott? Only 3… pathetic, Gordon!

Mullins heads the market, obviously, with JASMIN DE VAUX. Sounds like a girl, looks like a girl (no tackle) but very much a boy. He is by TIRWANAKO who who a good French horse and has a knack producing mud lovers too. The trouble is, he’s yet to produce a really, really good one… could this lad be it? Not sure but he did look very impressive in his first run under rules, what he beat is yet to be seen really.

Gordon Elliott has the second in the market with JALON D’OUDAIRIES. He is by NO RISK AT ALL who, unlike TIRWANAKO, has produced monsters to date, think ALLAHO and EPATANTE! Gordon says this one is a ‘proper horse’, so he should, he did cost £420k! Looks a proper stayer so ground should suit.

THE YELLOW CLAY has been beaten by REDEMPTION DAY who in turn got stuffed by the aforementioned JALON D’OUDAIRIES… hard to see why that form should be reversed.

CANTICO is the pick of Townend and we’ve been trying to work out why. He did it fairly effortlessly lto but beat absolutely nothing and despite his French pedigree, has a low action which means the ground might find him out. But he won in heavy? - we hear you ask, yes he did , but didn’t beat anything!

ROMEO COOLIO is another hyper-expensive purchase for Gordon Elliott. £420k… Surely no horse who can’t reproduce is worth that? Hasn’t set the world alight yet but has done every thing asked. Falls into the could be anything basket.

YOU OUGHTA KNOW reps Mullins and is the mount of Danny Mullins. Lovely pedigree but any further and he’d have been beaten lto by a flying THE YELLOW CLAY.

We don’t think the British have a chance in this on current form even though they have served us well previously (we gambled SIXMILEBRIDGE at Sandown.

Verdict: We think even though he hasn’t got the classiest pedigree, THE YELLOW CLAY could have more to offer at 8’s ew. He was returning from a long lay off lto and wasn’t given a hard time but stormed off and would have beaten YOU OUGHTA KNOW (so that’s one beat in the race). Pauling’s bumper horse SIXMILEBRIDGE might be able to hit the top 6 at 7/4.

NEWSLETTER HORSE

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COMPETITION WINNER

Well done to @lexguildford - we picked this one completely at random, it had absolutely NOTHING to do with the compliments. Dm us Alex - £100 free bet for you today.

RISK ON

Wednesday is notoriously the tricky day of Cheltenham and with the mud and non-runners it has made it even harder. Go easy today and enjoy it. Follow us on X @equinties for a couple of bets away from the madness at Prestbury Park.

13.45 BALLYBURN* & PREDATORS GOLD 6/1 FORECAST

14.30 FACT TO FILE 4/5**

15.15 BALLYADAM 8/1 EW & GUARD YOUR DREAMS 30/1 EW

16.00 EL FABIOLO*** & EDWARDSTONE FORECAST

16.50 HARDY DE SEUIL 10/1 EW and SA FUREUR 7/1 EW

17.30 YELLOW CLAY 8/1 EW & SIXMILEBRIDGE TP 7/4

*Treble on the shorties - BECAUSE EVERYONE IS DOING IT.

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