Equinties - Cheltenham day 2

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Day 2 preview

Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 

Wednesday opens up with the talking horse of this year’s preview night circuit as IMPAIRE ET PASSE tops the market – he is adept on soft and heavy, over 2m4f and 2m, and has beaten SHECOULDBEANYTHING, a horse who finished second in Listed company recently.

From the way he’s being spoken about, he should be good but his form leaves still much to be desired versus some of the others in the line up.

On the other hand, HERMES ALLEN has some very good form from his Challow Hurdle win – you can’t hate what he has done, it’s just a case of how high his ceiling is... but you cant answer that yet given he didn't come off the bridle in the Challow.

The unnerving stat for all HERMES ALLEN backers is that Nicholls hasn't won a Festival race since 2019.

If this was a right-handed course, GAELIC WARRIOR would be 5/2. However, shock, Cheltenham is left-handed.  

The five-year-old jumped a touch right at the last hurdle at the DRF lto but that was because he had no cover – if he gets some on Wednesday, he has a massive engine.  

GOOD LAND is by super sire BLUE BRESIL and his trainer Connell is going for a double after MARINE NATIONALE bolted up in the Supreme yesterday (he did tell everyone!). This horse has a bit to find on form though.

Our view: There's 10 in this race presenting a couple of ew choices to take on the fave who misses it on numbers for us (HE'S DONE FUCKING NOTHING). HERMES ALLEN to buck all the negative trends and win and CHAMP KIELY ew are the two plays. CHAMP KIELY won the Lawlors Of Naas Grade 1 lto, a race won by BOB O and ENVOI ALLEN. His Point form reads well with MARINE NATIONALE too.

Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 

Bit of a weak renewal of the Brown Advisory and the market is dominated by a hot fave.

GERRI COLOMBE has improved a fair whack for Gordon Elliott, he’s not on the same level as MIGHTY POTTER in the yard as the team don’t know how good he is, but on his first start at three miles over fences, he has the favorites chance.

THE REAL WHACKER has Cheltenham and distance form, though what is the form worth? It’s probably the fourth-best form in the race, however, he could get a freebie from the front and catch GERRI for a turn of foot. 

He's by MAHLER so wouldn't want the ground worse than good to soft imo.

THYME HILL probably needs to jump better and has had a weird chasing season, whereas SIR GERHARD has the best engine in the race but he looked a bad jumper lto and the massive step up in a question mark. I do really like this horse but everything tells me he cant win this off the back of just one chase run off the back of ill prep.

If it turns up soft, Dan Skelton believes GALIA DES LITEAUX will run a great race, but it has to be soft. She's by SADDLER MAKER (the same as big GERRI) and they both need cut in the ground.

Our view: This is a very ground dependent selection. GERRI COLOMBE has been described as a good thing by Harry Cobden but if, only if the ground starts to dry up we'll take him on with THE REAL WHACKER. If the rains comes and it stays soft we'll be all over big GERRI.

Coral Cup 

Keeping this quick as I have no interest in it.

CAMPROND is a pound higher than his win over FASTORSLOW at Punchestown in April – been a bad, bad horse since and you might have to leave. Plus he's by a bullet sprinter so my blood brain says NO.

HMS SEAHORSE has progressed well and was fourth in the Boodles off a 15lb lower mark – there is a cult following for him on Racing Twitter, but again, he may be handicapped out of this. 

RUN FOR OSCAR is a horse Charles Byrnes mentioned for hurdling after his Cesarewitch win in October – two runs in two good hurdles have him on 147 with Phillip Byrnes claiming five pounds, so he’s interesting. 

Since his good run behind better horses, he has to have a chance off 147 over this mid-distance – Noel Meade is in fair form as well. 

Our view: Tough and a non-betting race if you're smart. LANGER DAN has always been a plot. We think there's still more to come from GOOD RISK AT ALL and he could turn up here well handicapped. Could be a race for the Brits.

Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase 

Although EDITEUR DE GITE beat both of them lto, this should really be a two horse race between Kings EDWARDSTONE and ENERGUMENE. Last time saw a brilliant ride from Niall Houlihan that sealed the business for the Gary Moore-trained nine-year-old alongside a slight lack of respect from both Paul Townend and Tom Cannon in behind but I'm going to say that that was his Cheltenham...it'll be a very different result today.

EDWARDSTONE gave the winner 7+ lengths at the second-last and used up a lot of energy to get to Moores at the finish, so his lack of overtaking once making it to the front shouldn’t be too much of a concern – he’s an Arkle winner, a consistent horse, and loves Cheltenham. The good judges are on him and he could be hard to beat. 

Taking him on is last year’s winner ENERGUMENE comes into this year’s contest as the second favourite. 

Eight horses have won the Queen Mum back-to-back since it’s inauguration in 1959, however, only two of them have come since 1996. 

If the rain continues to come his chances will increase, it’s just whether he can bounce back from his Clarence House disappointment.  

Our view: EDWARDSTONE for us given the way ENERGEMENE jumped lto. Disclaimer: IF, big IF, ENERGEMENE is back to his best, EDWARDSTONE might find it hard to peg him back. Watch the money in this race.

The XC

DELTA WORK JUST WINS. NAP.

Grand Annual 

Does anyone have a dart board and the list of runners? Might have a good shot at finding a winner if you do. 

JP has the top two in the market in ANDY DUFRESNE and DINO BLUE – they are both joint favs at 11/2 and the money is coming for the pair.

The former is off 140, 15lbs below his owner-mate, and has ran into MAGIC DAZE and IMPERVIOUS this year, so she has good form – ANDY DUFRESNE ran off this mark last year but he ran into a well-handicapped one, you’d day there’s good possibility for that to happen again. 

Of the rest, stats are in favour of COEUR SUBLIME – he ran into BLUE LORD and FERNY HOLLOW last season so off 153 he could have a few up his sleeve. Also, for contest, he was officially rated 151 last year and was entered for the Grand Annual, but connections went to the Arkle so they must rate him fairly high. 

SIZING POTTSIE is 15lbs below his best rating of 155 and will like the soft ground, so he could fly the flag for the English, whereas MIDNIGHT RUN is part of the small Joseph O’Brien team heading over – he’s a novice and ran into ADAMENTLY CHOSEN on his second chase race, so he could have some pounds up his sleeve. 

Our view: Play smart and use the books offers - as many places as possible/best prices etc. Arguments can be made for several so there stake sizing must be kept to a minimum here. ANDY DUFRESNE, ELIXIR DU NUTZ and MIDNIGHT RUN all tiny stake selections.

Champion Bumper

I like FUN FUN FUN in this. A mare won the bumper when it was last on my birthday Mares a capable of winning this race and she looked quite good lto.

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Cheltenham bets

Small sizing on the 16.50 as it's too tough and the Champion Chase is best watched in our view but you'll see we've gone with the British today in a number of races. LFG.

13.30 HERMES ALLEN & CHAMP KIELY

14.10 GERRI COLOMBE & THE REAL WHACKER (if it doesn't rain)

14.50 LANGER DAN & GOOD RISK AT ALL

15.30 EDWARDSTONE (watching race)

16.10 DELTA WORK NAP

16.50 ANDY DUFRESNE, EDN & MIDNIGHT RUN

17.30 FUN FUN FUN

Comp winner: Bet slip winner is BLACLBEAUTYFC because he tagged Craig David and I love that banter.