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Equinties - Cheltenham day 1
BGP Capital
November 14, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Love Cheltenham?
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£550k of Placepot guarantee’s on offer for this November meeting is insane.
Today’s Placepot guarantee is a minimum £150k and tomorrow… a quarter milli!
Get on here: Tote | Offers
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
LET IT RAIN
Well, racing has been crying our for rain and boy are we getting it now.
Yesterday, Cheltenham put out a post asking all racegoers to check, early doors, if the meeting was still going ahead owed to the threat of storm Claudia.
What the hell were in for!?
Well, as it turns out, not so much. A damp squib (excuse the pun). Yes, it will be raining all day but the 30mm or so which was predicted hasn’t come and as such RACING GOES AHEAD. On proper NH ground no less.
So, we have Cheltenham’s November Meeting, and this year’s renewal will be one to remember as the ground is likely to turn into an absolute slop fest.
The key thing about today is not only the rain that we have already had, but the rain that the course is going to continue to get throughout the day. The worst of it for today is, well, right now and during the run-up to racing. Those on course will get a good soaking through the day as well, and the wind will make it a pretty unpleasant experience for all those on track today.
But, what will that do for the racing? Just as an obvious thing to look at, BACK HORSES WHO HAVE FORM ON SOFT GROUND.
It sounds silly to say, but there will be trainers who have lined horses up for this meeting due to the unseasonably good ground we have had the last few months, and if they do decide to run them, they will find things hard work out there, especially in races like the 3m3f handicap chase on Sunday. That could be a hard race to watch.
There are horses out there that should like the ground today. MARLACOO in the opener, FUGITIF in the Veterans, ONE BIG BANG in the three-mile novice chase, and SHADE OF WINTER in the finale are obvious ones, while horses like JACK HYDE, and LORD BADDESLEY could find it really tricky today. These are just a few quick examples, of course.
Furthermore, horses who haven’t had runs yet this season could find things difficult. Not only will their general fitness be put under the test, but if the ground places an emphasis on stamina, that will surely have something to do with how fit they are/aren’t.
So, if you’re going to Prestbury Park today, wrap up warm and dry. If you’re at home, you’ve probably made the right call, but just err on the side of caution with the unpredictable ground.
CHELTENHAM’S NOVEMBER MEETING
As normal, we’ve preview the big races for today but will chuck in the standout sloppers for you to assess and add to your Tote Placepots Tote | Offers (see next articel).
14.55 2M GRADE 2 SHLOER CHASE
It’s the return of the marmite horse, JONBON. We don’t think he’s the marmite horse really, we bloody love him but boy do people like to slate him.
OUT OF 24 RUNS HE’S ONLY EVER BEEN BEATEN FIVE TIMES FFS.
Give him the credit, he’s a proper, proper, proper race horse.
JP McManus’ star two-mile chaser is BACK for the Shloer Chase today, and he’s going for the hatr-trick having won it for two years on the bounce, and it’s the feature race today.
Even better for fans of the horse, he is odds-against, which is pretty mental considering he opened up very, very odds-on earlier this week. So, what are the reasons to take him on? Well, the ground might be heavy by race time and that would be worry for any horse in these kind of speedy races, when having their season debut. More, the course seems to be his Achilles heel.
These are clearly reasons that anyone can make, but it depends on you, the punter, to make an informed decision on just how much this weighs against him, because there are also very simple answers to these queries.
He’s won the Shloer Chase twice, so he clearly doesn’t hate Cheltenham, and when he’s been beaten over fences around here, it came in a red-hot Arkle, and then he made two race-ending mistakes the other times.
As for the ground, he’s won a Tingle Creek on heavy (RPR of 171 that day) and he won a different Tingle Creek on soft. He also stays further, based on his two Melling Chase wins.
And finally, yes this is his first run of the campaign, but that’s the case for L’EAU DU SUD, LIBBERTY HUNTER, EDWARDSTONE, and HADDEX DES OBEAUX.
He may just be too good here, to be honest, but this is a fascinating race to see him in, and he deserves every word we’ve written about him above, because he is still criminally underrated based on what he has done so far in his career.
So, what can beat him? L’EAU DU SUD is the obvious danger, and we imagine that Dan Skelton has had this race earmarked for a long time in the full knowledge that if there’s any day to beat JONBON, today is that day.
The ground is probably in his favour now, and he won over this course and distance last season pretty impressively, though it was a weak Arkle Trial. He did run well in the Arkle afterwards, and ONLY BY NIGHT has franked the Arkle form as well with her recent win. Definitely a danger in the conditions/on this specific day.
The rain will also suit LIBBERTY HUNTER nicely. He won at the track on New Year’s Day on heavy when beating MATATA before he improved 14lbs, and he won at the December meeting around Prestbury Park. He probably has a bit to find, and Evan Williams’ form isn’t super.
MATATA was quite disappointing at the October Meeting, but he was apparently quite unfit, so we could see a different horse. Still, he has been beaten by a combined distance of 73 lengths across his last two starts, which isn’t appealing. He does like the track and the ground, in fairness.
EDWARDSTONE, the legend, is back to take on his nemesis, JONBON.
He’s never beaten the horse in green and gold, and he’s now a year older, which would be a worry. Alan King’s horses don’t seem to be going badly, and maybe he could pop up here with the softening ground, but you’d have to be a brave punter.
BROOKIE and HADDEX DES OBEAUX complete the field. The former is a nice horse, but he’s between a rock and a hard place with his handicap mark, and would he want heavy ground? Probably not. As for HADDEX DES OBEAUX, this is his first run for 706 days. Still, at the time of him finishing third to JONBON in the 2023 Tingle Creek (beaten just under five lengths), he was very exciting. He may need this, but he does like soft ground. We hope he is back to his best, because if he is, he could be quite exciting this season.
Verdict: Only against the likes of EL FABIOLO has he even been odds against ffs. He should heavy odds on today, he is absolutely different gear to this lot on his best day. We can see a load of punters on X taking him but honestly that’s just vanity. We think he just wins and we’ll love it if he does because every time JONBON he does, it’s simply a big F YOU to his haters. For racing, we’re with JONBON.
15.30 2M 5F GRADE 2 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Interesting race this, with hype horses looking to deliver and Champion Bumper form being put to the test.
We’ll start with last season’s Champion Bumper runner-up, HEADS UP, as he leads the market for John McConnell. His trainer is 1/23, which is a worry, but he is quite unexposed. He has to prove he stays 2m5f as he’s never tried this trip before, but he is a soft ground winner, and he looked good in a Listowel maiden hurdle last time out, albeit a mediocre one. How good is last season’s Champion Bumper form? We’re not sold on it yet, but he has his chance.
NO DRAMA THIS END is the one novice hurdler to be excited by from Paul Nicholls’ stable. Paul has said this, Harry Cobden has said this, and to our eyes, we say this.
He’s already been touted as the Challow horse for Ditcheat this season, and he looked very professional in his Warwick bumper win. He should like the soft ground, and he has been away for a Newbury away day. This is deep company for a seasonal reappearance, however and he’s untried at the trip.
WELONLYHAVEDONE is in the same boat as HEADS UP, as Gavin Cromwell is 1/58. That is pretty dire form. He has questions to answer on the ground as well, but he did look good at Galway last time before falling. He is quite exciting, but whether today is his day can be debateable.
The more solid one in the field is probably GREAT FLEET as he’s had two runs this season, one of which behind CONMAN JOHN at the Cheltenham October Meeting.
He was probably a bit keen last time out, so the step down in trip should be for him, and he maybe didn’t quite get home. He’s a soft ground winner at Market Rasen, and he was behind SOBER GLORY in a PtP last year. Very interesting profile!
MONEYGARROW also represents the Skelton’s, but he isn’t the choice of Harry which might be telling. Is that because he bombed in the Persian War? There is nothing to suggest he wont like this ground and trip, he is after a full brother to MINELLA CROONER who loves 3miles in the mud. Interesting, especially if Harry has picked wrong.
Of the rest, DESTINATION DUBAI and KING’S BUCKS are interesting to us. The former was second in the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper at the Nash meeting, which is good form, and KOKTAIL BRUT bolted up in a Punchestown maiden hurdle yesterday. He is interesting up in trip given his Wetherby win last time. Ground no issue on pedigree.
As for KING’S BUCKS, it’s objectively interesting that Henry De Bromhead is sending him over considering he hasn’t exactly set Ireland on fire or anything. THat said, he’s only raced under rules twice making his one of the most unexposed horses at the meeting. He was behind the hype horse KSAR FATAL at Gowran Park last season, which is notable. A bit to prove in this company, we think, but Rachael Blackmore was on Radio 4 this morning and said he’d go well!
Verdict: You need a horse who will definitely stay this trip and literally every winner of the last ten running’s of this race was tried at 2m 3f plus at the very least. NO DRAMA THIS END is all the rage in the Nicholls camp and is supposedly their Challow horse (they used this route for the ill-fated HERMES ALLEN (RIP) back in ‘22. He’d had a run though! We’re going to have to go with GREAT FLEET for the Skelton’s - he’s fit, gets the trip and his big action will love this ground!
PLACEPOT SLOPPERS
Pick a couple of horses in each race who you now will like the slop and be in with a chance if winning a share of 150k. Click here: Tote | Offers
Here are our mud lovers:
13.10 MARLACOO is a big horse with a big action (WINGS OF EAGLES was big) and he finally gets his ground. He looks a play today. AS LEGENDS HAVE IT and BECTIVE ABBEY are two at prices who will love the mud too.
13.45 FUGITIF loves this ground and loves the track, first time in Veterans company. He’s a single. CAN YOU CALL for Evan Williams is another mud lover but the yard are slightly out of form.
14.20 WADE OUT ground it out well last time against a good horse and should be better in the mud. ONE BIG BANG also has form in the mud.
16.00 ALPHONSE LE GRANDE could be chucked in on flat form so has to be included here. Of the others, SHADE OF WINTER and FRENCH EMPEROR are both bred for the mud. Evan Williams has some live chances today should they be fit and ready and throw the current stable form in the bin.
RISK ON
Of the Cheltenham horses, we like FUGITIF, can’t see JOBON beat so have played him at even money and WADE OUT for Olly Murphy. We have chucked the horses from the sloppers section in the 150k Placepot: Tote | Offers
Else where we like:
13.32 DAYTIME DREAMING
Telling they haven’t waited to get him straight over fences. Looks a play at 11/4.
14.07 GIDGE
Had we done the bumper preview here we’d be all over this girl. She was given a nice easy intro back in March and that figure is very good. She’s a half to CRAMBO and can prove smart today. 13/8 probably our NAP today.
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