Equinties - Cheltenham day 1

Gm Equinauts

THE BEST WEEK OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CALENDAR IS FINALLY HERE.

People liken Cheltenham to Christmas… well the rain really has made it our Christmas. Certified slop lovers only today, Ladies and Gents.

Remember - play smart. Pick and bet your strongest fancies and keep your hands in your pockets if you’re not so sure. Use the TOTE FANTASY to have an interest in every race:

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Good luck and let’s dive in!

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

1.30 GRADE 1 SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE

Willie Mullins saddles 50% of the field with 6 o/o the 12 runners. The first is TULLYHILL for owners Cheveley Park Stud. The son of MARTALINE looks to have a lot of stamina, he won a point to point over the usual trip of 3 miles and has ran well over 2m6f, he did however place second in a Gr1 bumper over 2m and has won his last two starts over 2m so he’s not a one trick pony. Jumping does need to improve at this level, going left handed will help.

MYSTICAL POWER is bred in the purple being by the late GALILEO and o/o Cheltenham Festival legend ANNIE POWER. He’s learning on the job and we may not have seen the best of him yet. His jumping needs to sharpen up, which is a common trait in the GALILEO’S. He has also only had 3 runs, 2 over hurdles and the ground is not sure to suit.

FIREFOX didn’t stay lto over 2m4f, connections must think a stiff 2miles will suit him here. He’s been given 2 months to recover from his last run and should be cherry ripe for this drop in trip. Big player as he stays, jumps accurately and has speed.

SLADE STEEL by Hardwicke Stakes (1m4f) winner TELESCOPE was beaten 7 lengths by BALLYBURN lto - would be a shame for him to win this race with that form. He won a point to point (3miles) and has won over 2m4f, looks better suited over the longer trip but they don’t want to take on Ballyburn again. Not without a chance especially in this ground.

JERIKO DU REPONET is the shortest priced British challenger in the market. He needs a PB to win this on the form of his previous runs and the stable form is a worry. Can do it all but is he really good enough? 

MISTERGIF is flat bred and lightly raced over hurdles. This is only his second start for W P Mullins so improvement is expected. The soft going isn’t a worry as he won on heavy lto. He looks interesting, not without a chance for sure but the hurdles might come a bit quick for him today.

TELLHERTHENAME runs for the red hot Ben Pauling yard, ground is a worry as he looks better on top of the ground. Also may find it hard with his running style of being prominent. Ew chance at best but looks vulnerable.

ASIAN MASTER will be ridden by his amateur jockey who used to train him, needs a big jump in improvement but unexposed.

FAVOUR AND FORTUNE hasn’t shown the level of form to win this sort of race yet.

Two interesting ones on pedigree are GOLD DANCER who is a half to the likes of AL DANCER - that family means he could be very smart (the mud is a bonus) but he heeds to improve from his one run for Mullins. And SUPASUNDAE hasn’t been seen for nearly a year and has only raced twice in his life both runs were in France, but is brilliantly bred. He’ll be one to follow.

KINGS HILL just needs to stay out of the way. 

Verdict: As always there won’t be room for an error today, TULLYHILL will take them on a merry dance and he probably won’t stop in front. TELLHERTHENAME will keep him honest and SLADE STEEL likes to be prominent which will suit in this ground. Jack Kennedy will have FIREFOX sitting on their coat tails and he has all the attributes to win a race like this but perhaps not on this ground as he got outstayed lto. TULLYHILL to win. SLADE STEEL should place.

14.10 GRADE 1 ARKLE NOVICE’S CHASE

WP Mullins trains the first 3 in the market. 

GAELIC WARRIOR could be a steel at 3/1. Two starts back he ran all over IL ETAIT TEMPS, but a blow was when he jumped right last time out and unseated Paul Townend. In addition, he has been beaten twice at Cheltenham before taking the runners up spot. 

HUNTERS YARN has come in for a lot of support. His 12th place finish in the County Hurdle last year doesn’t read that well. He fell two starts back which is another negative. But, he is second fave and trained by Mullins who has won this 5 times in 9 years. 

IL ETAIT TEMPS is a little terrier. He looked cooked when he ran at the festival last year but he stayed on for 5th even though he “didn’t jump with fluency”. He had the measure of FOUND A FIFTY when they met last time out. 

FOUND A FIFTY is in the Elliott camp. He got collared in the Irish Arkle, by IL ETAIT TEMPS but Cheltenham may well play to his liking. Has been on the drift.

Henry De Bromheads string come alive at Cheltenham, and QUIXILIOS has been stable at 7/1. The Cheveley Park runner won the Triumph Hurdle in 2021, so obviously he goes well at the Gloucestershire track. Rachel Blackmore will have to get stuck into him up the straight.

JPR ONE and MASTER CHEWY are flying the flag for the English and definitely not ruled out. Last time we checked the English trainers can still train a horse! 

These two horses ran at Lingfield in the Gr2 Lightning which JPR ONE won, but MASTER CHEWY was badly hampered at the first and he was the shorter price of the two. Both got each way chances.

MY MATE MOZZIE comes here in good form. But struggling to say he is good enough, although it is an open race. Bags of experience with 20 runs under his belt, but only 5 wins.

Verdict: GAELIC WARRIOR and FOUND A FIFTY are going to take up the running but we can see this race really falling apart as most of these Irish horses have been knocking each other out regularly…all except HUNTERS YARN 7/1. He’s totally unexposed, will love the ground and has done nothing wrong. JPR ONE and MASTER CHEWY, the two British contestants perhaps represent place chances.

14.50 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE 

JP reached into his pocket to buy the Ultima favourite, and in that he got MEETINGOFTHEWATERS. He’s rated 17lbs higher than his Paddy Power Chase win, but the market has been pretty solid for him and there are good vibes for him. 

Kim Bailey has a strong hand in the race, though his shorter-priced runner is CHIANTI CLASSICO. He’ll like the ground having won on testing ground at Chepstow earlier this season and this has been a plan for him. As for TRELAWNE, he has yet to race over three miles as a chaser but he bolted up over the trip as a hurdler and Bailey is sweet on him. 

THE GOFFER finished fourth in this race last year in what was the hottest renewal of the race in recent memory. He runs off two pounds below that, so he would seem to have a good chance. 

WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT has been put up as a dark horse by the Twiston-Davies’ and he is apparently showing good signs at home. One to investigate in the market. 

At the prices, EKLAT DE RIRE has had a tough time of things and isn’t the easiest horse to get ready, but he did beat CONFLATED at Wexford in 2021, so he could be well-treated on that form.

Verdict: We quite liked STUMPTOWN for this but noticed he was well beat in his point by the re-opposing CHIANTI CLASSICO 6/1. IN this mud it is worth speccing a play on certified mud lover EKLAT DE RIRE 20/1 who could carry this lot if back on form. His form beating CONFLATED is the best in the race.

15.30 GRADE 1 CHAMPION HURDLE

The talking race of this whole meeting. It’s been subject to abrupt market moves, major speculation, blood tests, a major scratching and 10% of ante-posts down before a race has even been run.

National hunt’s racing best, CONSTITUTION HILL, was set to make his champion hurdle title defence having made a mockery of STATE MAN when hard held last year but was sadly withdrawn last week after an unsatisfactory blood test.

A straight 8 are left and the market see’s STATE MAN topping the market at a very short 4/11. If CONSTITUTION HILL wasn’t born, STATE MAN would be described as the second coming.

IRISH POINT is next in the market but 10lbs behind the fave on ratings. Supplemented Betfair hurdle winner IBERICO LORD is then 12’s… he is 26lbs inferior to STATE MAN.

This race desperately misses CONSTITUTION HILL. It’s such a shame we don’t get to see him defend his title against an improved STATE MAN in round II.

Verdict: this will be a procession for STATE MAN who will canter up the hill, well clear of the field, met by the jubilant masses who, we imagine, will be simply happy this boy has got his time in the sun.

In this weather and going, LUCCIA might be a good lay for four places but we need very soft going for that play.

16.10 GRADE 1 MARES HURDLE

LOSSIEMOUTH is she the meeting banker or a blow out?

Most people are punting the STATE MAN LOSSIEMOUTH double but this ground really has changed the chances of horses..

Will she stay up the hill when the going gets tough? Only 5yo, her dam is a sister to LORD GLITTERS who was winning over 1 mile 2f on good ground! Pedigree says no and she can run keen but could she just be a freak?

ASHROE DIAMOND is Mullins’ second string. Now this filly will defo stay the trip. Patrick Mullins gets on with her. Not the sexiest pick though.

TELMESOMETHINGGIRL - Blackmore’s mount was brought down at Cheltenham last year when going oh so well. She had previously won the Dawn Run at the track so obviously likes the place. Eachway claims.

HISPANIC MOON is French mare with loads of experience. She’s ran 25 times and she’s only 7. Looks like a second or third string but wouldn’t put anyone off an eachway play, she did beat GALA MARCEAU by 18 lengths.

GALA MARCEAU and Danny Mullins get on quite well. He was steering her when she beat LOSSIEMOUTH last year, but has been beaten by her 3 times since. Looks well held.

LOVE ENVOI is a British runner was second last year. But has been underwhelming this season. Back up in trip will help. LANGTRY LADY - a hard one to assess but very able. She has only ran twice and has bolted up both times.

MARIES ROCK - Henderson form is a worry but did run a belter last time out over 3 miles. She’s stays forever. Won this in 2022 but maybe past her best now. We could go on… You Wear It Well.

Verdict: LANTRY LADY 25/1 has only had two races in her life, but so had CONSTITUION HILL when winning the Champion Hurdle last year. Not to say she’s the female version of CONSTITUTION HILL but she’s bloody well bred. Her dam is a sister to ANNIE POWER. HISPANIC MOON is another at a whopper price 50/1 who could place. We’d rather go for the certified mud lovers who might scrape a place than LOSSIEMOUTH in this ground.

16.50 BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE

The Boodles is a nightmare of a race, but the big money has been for MILAN TINO. The British handicapped has dropped him 10lbs since his opening British mark, which has caused the big move, and he has form behind both SIR GINO and BURDETT ROAD. 

For a while, LARK IN THE MORNIN has been the Racing X horse and that shows in his price. He’s a handicap debutante and was classy on the flat when behind ALDER. Is he over bet? Paul Nicholls’ best handicap chance of the week is LIARI and he’s been backed into a single-figure price. Three from three over hurdles, he put away a fair field at Musselburgh and Nicholls believes he has the attributes for this race.  

BATMAN GIRAC has been a bit of a drifter, but he was a big eye-catcher behind KALA CONTI, KARGESE, and NURBURGRING on Boxing Day. That form has worked out well. Another horse who was behind these in the same race was OSE PARTIR, another Racing X horse in the same silks as LARK IN THE MORNIN. 

 He ran an eye-catching race on Boxing Day when given no chance to win - this could be a classic Martin Brassil plot. Year-on-year, the race that produces winners for the Boodles is the Naas race in early February.

EAGLE FANG won the contest, BRIGHT LEGEND was second, and NARA was fourth. The latter is the shortest-priced horse of the contest out of the three, but he was 33/1 ante-post and is nearly a third of that price, so de Bromhead could be onto one here.

Verdict: If there is one horse who needs the mud its LATIN VERSE. With so many places on offer you’d think he is a banker to place - 7/4 for 6 places could be a good bet. We had strong word for LARK IN THE MORNIN at Leopardstown but he finished no where - has today been the plan!? Wirth playing two in this race to hedge. Guessing - not strong views at all.

17.30 GRADE 2 NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP

Willie Mullins’ arrives here on a three timer, winning the most recent renewal with year with our only ante-post of last year GAILLARD DU MESNIL.

EMBASSY GARDENS reps him the treble bid today. He is 2 from 2 over fences and they’ve both been but some margins. Where’s the glass ceiling for this lad? His mum was very talented making him a leading player.

CORBETTS CROSS famously caused carnage in last years Albert Bartlett by running them rough the wing at the last. He wasn’t ever winning but looked set to place. He also jinked out to the left before a fence last race and fell. As a result his his record is patchy and he clearly has issues.

We think this could be just a two horse race between the two market rivals vying for favouritism. EMBASSY GARDENS has done nothing wrong and could have gone round again lto. He’s the bet to beat up the piggy CORBETTS CROSS in the race Willie Mullins would love to win - his mothers race.

RISK ON

CHELTENHAM DAY 1 SELECTIONS

13.30 TULLYHILL 10/3

14.10 HUNTERS YARN 7/1 EW

14.50 CHIANTI CLASSICO 7/1 EW & EKLAT DE RIRE 20/1 EW

15.50 STATE MAN & LUCCIA TOP 4 LAY*

16.10 LANTRY LADY 18/1 EW & HISPANIC MOON 50/1 EW

16.50 LATIN VERSE TOP 6 7/4 & LARK IN THE MORNIN 8/1 EW

17.30 EMBASSY GARDENS 2/1 NAP

*The LUCCIA top 4 place lay isn’t for everyone and comes with liability on the exchange - only play if you’re well practiced with the exchange.