Equinties - Cheltenham day 1

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Gm Equinauts

It's finally here. The morning every jumps fan, degen gambler and everyone in between has been waiting for...

With non-stop rain yesterday hitting the track and the grey skies locking the moisture in the ground today, I'm quite sure we can expect that Cheltenham roar to kick off a bit of a slop fest on the first day... just how we like it.

Let's dive tf in.

Cheltenham preview 

Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 

This race is dominated by FACILE VEGA chat. If you like him at 2’s today, you’d have loved him at 5’s when he bombed lto. But what happened? It’s wide knowledge the poor lad was lame for a week after the race, so something was obviously amiss. Contrary to the money pouring in for him this morning, the stats are bearish on him making a comeback – very, very few last time out losers for Mullins go on and win at the Festival.

I can see him bouncing back today tbf but given the question mark over his last performance, injury and weakness of the Champion bumper he won, I’d be inclined to look further down the field.

Both DARK RAVEN and INTHEPOCKET were looking like Ballymore runners, but they have been declared for the opening race at the final hour. I was interested in INTHEPOCKET for the Ballymore and with the ground as it is, that will be in his favor today.

MARINE NATIONALE’S form stinks on paper for a 4/1 shot and he is only so high due to his trainer’s comments – that’s not to say he can’t win, but you just can’t back him on pure form. Plus his pedigree is a bit stinky for this stamina test.

If you like FACILE FEGA or INTHEPOCKET then you can’t not like IL ETAIT TEMPS who produced a 13lb career-best performance last time out with a perfect route and a great ride. I think he’s sure to be in the money today.

As for the British horses, TAHMURAS has done nothing wrong, and his form has been boosted in many places, so there are not many stones to throw at the Tolworth winner but he has a bit to find.

Olly Murphy sends two good horses in the unbeaten CHASING FIRE and STRONG LEADER with the latter being the stronger of the two imo. I like his bumper form and he won so easily lto I think he’s going to run a huge race.

It could be a year for the talking horses thanks to DIVERGE and DOCTOR BRAVO, two horses who have a bit of trainer pressure – the latter was third to FIL DOR and SHARJAH on just his third hurdles start which is very promising. 

And finally, High Definition is still fairly unexposed over hurdles following his unseat at the DRF lto, but his jumping is slightly flawed. 

Our view: FACILE VEGA could trot up if on song, but I think IL ETAIT TEMPS is the safe ew play against him. STRONG LEADER to place in the top 6 is 18’s… I love that bet.

Grade 1 Arkle Novices’ Chase 

JONBON or EL FABIOLO? That’s basically the race isn’t it.

It’s a very interesting Arkle this year and it looks to be a two, perhaps three horse race (Dysart Dynamo, a supremely prolific jumper and good horse…if he doesn’t blow up like last Cheltenham).

JONBON has drifted from top spot since his unpolished finish lto, have Paddy Power paid out too early? He’s a quality jumper, better than the market leader, and he has been impressive in all of his runs this season despite the small scare at Warwick lto. He’s a brute of a horse but just isn’t coming into this race with the best form.  

EL FABIOLO owns the best form. We aren’t the first people to tell you, of course, but for a stiffly run Arkle, you would potentially be inclined to side with JONBON due to his superior jumping and effortless rhythm as a few mistakes from EL FABIOLO could be costly but that simply might not be enough to beat the engine EL FAB has. Plus EL FAB is trained by Mullins!

Our view: EL FABIOLO for us.

Ultima Handicap Chase 

Just the three Irish horses are represented in this year’s Ultima thanks to FASTORSLOW, GLAMORGAN DUKE, and THE GOFFER, a winner at the DRF over the wrong distance and could be one to run a big race despite the big hike in the weights. 

From the top, CORACH RAMBLER is six pounds higher than his winning mark from this race 12 months ago and connections have Grand National hopes with him – he hasn’t been seen on the track since November so you’d be wary backing this one as the favourite in this ground despite the yards banging form.

As for last year’s third, he is one pound higher and he is 11/1 – the trio alongside GERICAULT ROQUE pulled a mile clear of the fourth, TEA CLIPPER, who also reappears on a two-pound higher mark. 

Staying with last year, FANTASTIKAS is 12lbs below his mark in this race last year, a race he finished seventh in, and he’s eight pounds below his last winning mark – soft ground would seriously benefit his case and he has seen sustained support this week since the rain started to pour. I’d have perhaps looked at him at 40’s but is a leave at his current price.

Both THE GOFFER and MONBEG GENIUS are the very progressive horses in the field – the former won over the wrong distance at the DRF and the latter looks extremely unexposed, it’s just whether he’s hit his ceiling yet. 

The same goes for INTO OVERDRIVE who has won five of his last six races and finished a length off L’HOMME PRESSE at Newcastle in November – if the five-pound raise for beating SOUNDS RUSSIAN the last day, a horse who has since finished second in a Cotswold Chase, is workable, he is right up there. 

Our view: British horses thrive in this race, purely because it’s a low-level handicap and the Irish can’t be arsed with it. That said, I quite like the stayer FASTORSLOW to at least fill a place in the mud and then OSCAR ELITE for Joe Tizzard who would have laid him out for this race.

Grade 1 Champion Hurdle 

CONSITUTION HILL just wins.

The vibes around STATE MAN are that he is also very good and would probably be a Champion Hurdle winner if not for Hendo’s machine, so he will finish second. 

However, the vibes about Vauban seem to be slightly different as they believe he will be better next year, something to be expected as a juvenile heading into open company. 

As for the British, I LIKE TO MOVE IT was very impressive in the Kingwell and serious place money could be on offer for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ hurdler, a horse who has been compared to the likes of THE NEW ONE.

Our view: CONSTITUTION HILL distance bet. We’ll probs take 10 lengths for 2’s.

Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle 

What. A. Race. All 10 have stood their ground for what could be one of the best races of the week. 

MARIES ROCK is last year’s winner and is very nice – they’ve chosen here over the Stayers’ due to the potential softer ground.  

Is there a small concern about the strength of her form compared to a few? Her race against the boys isn’t AMZING most of them were at the wrong trip. 

HONEYSUCKLE’S form is much better, even her Irish Champion Hurdle run is better form, and it wasn’t run to suit. But has she regressed? People say she has, but I don’t. Yeh shes a 9yo mare but she’s only been beaten by three horses in her life and one of them is getting back against CONSITUTION HILL. There is nothing wrong with HONEYSUCKLES form. Nothing at all.

EPATANTE is a mare who has been very, very good to us. She was very close to beating the two-time Champion Hurdle-winning mare at Cheltenham last year if not for getting the last wrong, so her case is obvious and I have no concerns over the trip or ground for her.

BRANDY LOVE was disappointing lto but connections seem to be happy with her prep since which is a positive and she’s got great form in the book historically.

Arguably, the two forgotten horses in the race are LOVE ENVOI and ECHOES IN RAIN. 

The former was the Mares’ Novice Hurdle winner last year, has given a stone away on seasonal reappearance and won well, and was extremely decisive at Sandown on her last start – softer conditions will suit, but any Good to Soft reading will still work. 

And as for ECHOES, she has gone from strength to strength since her second to HONEYSUCKLE at Punchestown in April having finished second in an Irish Cesarewitch, fell when going well in the Hatton’s Grace, and bolted up on soft ground lto – she is a serious player. 

Our view: HONEYSUCKLE for the win.

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 

Tough one this. 

Talking horse TEKAO is up 14lbs from his last ‘official mark’ when he ran third lto at the DRF, though he was roughly 12 lengths back. 135 looks steep compared to that, but connections think he’s a Graded horse next year (we’ve heard this before, cough cough GAELIC WARRIOR). 

The 1-2-3-4-5 from the Naas Novice Hurdle on February 11th are all declared, so which one should you choose? 

It could go to Charles Byrnes’ BYKER here who was giving four pounds away to the second and seven pounds away to the winner whilst still closing at the finish – his victory two starts ago was also very nice and he couldn’t have a better trainer to work him for a target – up four pounds on his Irish mark, but Phillip Brynes will be taking off five. 

The big ante-post gamble has been for Ben Pauling’s BAD, an ex-French horse who has been given a rating of 126 which is actually lower than his rating over in mainland Europe – Rachael Blackmore takes the ride and he could be anything (Gaelic Warrior type vibes as well). I don’t like his pedigree.

Our view: No strong case in this and everyone’s guessing – big prices win this race so you might want to have a speccy play on LUDUS who beat BYKER before in his maiden, the same Limerick maiden Band Of Outlaws won before winning the Boodles or Skelton's PUNTA DES ESTE who has won on heavy and first start finsihed behind a good horse of Moores.

Grade 2 National Hunt Chase 

GAILLARD DU MESNIL is the correct favourite, that’s for sure. 

Consistent horse. Won well two starts ago. Third in a hot Brown Advisory last year. You can’t throw too many stones at him. 

Can you take him on though?

NO.

Our view: BGP Capital owners on GAILLARD DU MESNIL at 7/2. At 6/5 he’s still a bet.

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Cheltenham bets

13.30 IL ETAIT TEMPS EW & STRONG LEADER TP top 6

14.10 EL FABIOLO WIN

14.50 FASTORSLOW & OSCAR ELITE EW

15.30 CONSTITUTION HILL by a distance 

16.10 HONEYSUCKLE WIN

16.50 PUNTA DEL ESTA EW (small)

17.30 GAILLARD DU MESNIL WIN