Equinties - Cheltenham changes, again

Gm Equinauts

Apologies, big typo’s and notes left in the first print.

This will read a lot better!

There’s no denying the Cheltenham Festival of last year needed to go in the bin. The ‘greatest show on earth’, as it’s so readily described by it’s paid promoters was close in accuracy bar one missing word - ‘sh*t’ needed to be placed somewhere in that statement.

The racing was dominated by one genius, Willie the Wizard Mullins and unless you were one of the racing enthusiasts prone to placing across the week perms, accumulating all the odds on hot-pots into one, then the true betting opportunities were quite slim. And that’s just from a punting perspective.

Many people who don’t follow racing as much as all of you regular readers of this publication had bad visiting experiences. Okay, so no one can do anything about the weather but there are no excuses for the cramped enclosures, the expensive Guinness and the after racing mayhem that ensued in the carpark. The race day experience needs change, and quickly.

But what about the racing?

Well, the Jockey Club have this week enforced several changes to race formats which need assessing.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CHELTENHAM CHANGES CONFIRMED

Having had a taster for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival 2025 changes last week, notably turning our beloved XC Chase into a bloody handicap lottery, we got the confirmed list of alterations at midday yesterday.

How does each one play out? Ladies first, of course.

The penalty change to the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle is great. Not only do the horses get to run off level weights in order to establish the best mare in the division, but it means they can clash against each other earlier in the season because they aren’t ducking and diving Listed/Graded races to avoid penalties.

This move will come as a big bonus to plenty. The connections of DIVA LUNA, LA MARQUISE, LET IT RAIN, MAUGHREEN, and more will be happy to see this.

What about the changes to chasing?

In short, previously there were 4x Graded Novice Chases - 3x Gr1’s and a Grade 2 national Hunt Chase. Now there are only 2 Grade 1 Novice Chases (The Arkle and Browns) and the other two have turned into handicaps, not including the XC!

Let’s weigh up the pro’s and con’s.

The National Hunt Chase turning into 0-145 Novice Handicap Chase over the same course and distance means the horses who stay longer than the mother-in-law can go here, though the Kim Muir is there too over 3m2f - (two options for the slow boats doesn’t make sense to us) but it might have good implications for the Graded races. How?

The argument is it forces (mainly Irish) horses to step up into the Ultima or Brown Advisory.

The qualifications have changed a little too. Now horses need 4 runs as a chaser to get into a non-novice handicap and five for hurdlers - why? The thinking behind this is expose the better horses and force them into better company. Think STATEMAN in the County in 2022 but we think this won’t make a blind bit of difference.

Having four runs to get qualified for a non-novice handicap chase doesn’t make too much of a difference as INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN managed to make it to the Kim Muir after four chase runs with 15lbs stuffed up his sleeve.

You understand what we’re trying to point out here? These changes are increasing the incentive to cheat.

HELLO… LANGER DAN!?

Great if you’re in the know, but for the majority of punters who aren’t and simply want to try find the best horse in the race - they now have an even harder task of doing so.

Sounds great for the bookies who give oh so much to our sport.

Pah. The day we see Denise Coates off the rich list is the day I empathise with those crooks who cry of a depleting betting turnover.

We hold big distain for online bookmakers firstly because they are no where near taxed enough (and the levy isn’t currently fit for purpose) and secondly, it’s near impossible to get good bets on online these days and they don’t want people betting horses - they want idiots in the casino!

On-course bookies are a slightly different breed, they take a bet, but often the prices offered these days are generally a clip or two below those being offered online through the apps But how do you place bet online? Unless you have nice friends, you can’t and so through a natural law of supply and demand, the on-course guys know they’ll get business from big punters even if the pricing isn’t as favourable.

Anyway, back to the changes.

Immediately the common phrase of ‘the Olympics of jumps racing’ from tweed wearing jumps enthusiasts can no longer be shouted on their socials or in the pubs… because it’s simply no longer true.

The best horses might not win, cheating will be rife and more horses from Skelton’s yard will have miraculous recoveries from a bleed, or cancer or a brain tumour! The serious punter won’t be interested.

But hey, a 6/4 shot at Bangor pays the same as backing DELTA WORK in the XC right?

The serious punters are a near dead species and the changes to the Festival might indeed boost the commercials as a whole but you can’t say the Festival is the best of the best anymore - that goes for horses and punters!

INTO THE RED FOR THE BLACK STUFF

Away from the track, Cheltenham are upping the price of Guinness but they are making parking easier, travelling easier (don’t know how), and visibility to the track with a pint easier! Beers will be flying!

Overall, any change the Jockey Club has tried to make a change, but in who’s favour?

NEWMARKET IN THE MUD

As always, when the rain drops - so do our previews! We love betting horses in the mud so, on this rare occasion, we will preview both Newmarket AND Haydock.

It’s a lot of work, so in order to keep it brief we’ll highlight the mud lovers only

You’re welcome!

13.50 1M CLASS 1 LISTED ROSEMARY STAKES (FILLIES AND MARES)

The market has this spot on. SIRONA is the new worthy fave here. She has a true mud pedigree -by a brilliantly versatile stallion (jumps and flat), he’s exceptional at producing good horses and most are mud lovers (and some of our favourite types - bumper winners!). Dam side needs mud too. She was last seen coming second in the Prix de la Cochere behind MOUTNAIN SONG (below), but its her fifth behind PORTA FORTUNA which makes her the girl to beat today, back in her favour conditions.

FAIR POINT is a mud lover but has a bit to find with SIRONA as does SPIRITUAL for the Gosden’s.

Verdict: if none of these fillies run under-par, the placings should be filled by SIRONA, FAIR POINT and SPIRITUAL, and we think in that order.

14.25 1M 4F GROUP 3 DUBAI STAKES (FILLIES AND MARES)

This field has been decimated by non-runners and now the few left in it will all go in the mud with preference for perhaps PLACE OF SAFETY of SEA OF ROSES.

SEA OF ROSES has been well-tried for connections without landing a huge scope yet. She went 12 runs without success between her first win at Doncaster in October 2022 and her latest win at Windsor last month.

What do both of the runs share? Soft ground! She beat DEIRA MILE that day who went on to finish a close fourth in the Leger and her losing run saw her take on good horses, notably ISLE OF JURA, WARM HEART, DUBAI HONOUR, and TIFFANY.

Verdict: With only 5 runners contesting this, there is no other option other than bulls eye and we think it’s too tough to play.

15.00 7F GROUP 2 ROCKFEL STAKES (FILLIES)

This will be a belter.

The market is dominated by unbeaten odds-on shot FORMAL who has looked oh so good for Stoutey. Her last win was on the day he announced his retirement:

FORMAL will be a very popular NAP today but we wonder if she’ll get stuck in the mud. She beat only beat a Sangster horse bred for fast ground horse and Fahey debutant STORM LADY (who runs today).

Coolmore have sent BUBBLING over after her promising third in Listed company lto. Ryan Moore has to wait, and wait, and wait for a gap and then the race was over but her eye-catching run suggests there is a lot more to come. Her pedigree is mixed and her action is a little daisy cutting so we’re not sure if this ground will suit.

For us, DUTY FIRST is the tentative mud selection only for her dam side DREAM AHEAD. DREAM AHEAD is both a great sire and dam sire when it comes to producing hard horses who can go in the mud.

Verdict: We have gambled DUTY FIRST before, she’s owes us nothing and gives us no reason to abandon her today in a bid to beat the fave!

15.35 1M GROUP 2 DUBAI JOEL STAKES

Another race with a depleted field here, only four runners yet it’s still so competitive the field are basically all 3/1!

POKER FACE and ICE MAX are, in our view, the ones to go in the ground, the former having placed in numerous Group races in the mud - so this should be well within his reach and his moment to get back on track - he hasn’t won this year! That said, ICE MAX did stuff him last time out at Goodwood and even with the weighting differential, it’s tough to see him reverse the form.

ICE MAX has won three of his last five, and those three performances have been impressive. His last race in handicap company came at Musselburgh in April when he won off 97, bolting up by five and a half lengths to beat INDIVIDUALISM, the half-brother to SUBJECTIVIST.

As aforementioned, his last win was in the Group 2 Celebration Mile and the level of form looks solid with POKER FACE – that came on soft ground, so he’ll like the conditions today.

Verdict: We think it’s between POKER FACE and ICE MAX - a little rev fc here!

16.10 7F CLASS 4 MAIDEN STAKES (COLTS & GELDINGS)

SEAPLANE - by name by nature. Our new hire Norm nearly landed a huge one on him last time but he got mowed down late. A travesty.

Redemption today?

Well, the field, again, has been decimated by non-runners owed to the heavy going.

His biggest danger left is the Balding horse FRANKINI who finished 4th behind SEAPLANE on debut. You can always bank on Balding’s horse to improve a load after their first run so naturally he will prove a big danger to the new fave SEAPLANE today.

Verdict: It’s between SEAPLANE and FRANKINI. It’s a case of who has improved from their last run most? SEAPLANE is a half to SUMO SAM who we backed in the mud last year. We’ll stick with the family fortunes. FANKINI to come second. Win single and reverse forecast as a cover in case Balding works his magic, as he so often does with horses on their second run.

16.45 1M 4F CLASS 1 LISTED GODOLPHIN STAKES

The market is all over MILITARY ACADEMY here despite him having a bit to find with the field. He’s unexposed, having only raced twice this season but he’s looked a monster on both occasions. When upsides Haggas’ THE REVEREND at Hamilton, MILITARY ACADEMY made him look like companion pony. We remember, because we bet THE REVERAND!

By FASTNET ROCK, MILITARY ACADEMY will eat up this ground and we think the market has this bang on. Bar BURDETT ROAD, all the others would be more suited to a quicker going.

Verdict: MILITARY ACADEMY wins.

The 17.20 is a tough handicap we have no interest in.

HAYDCOCK IN THE MUD

We’ll miss out the apprentice handicap, thanks!

14.15 7F CLASS 4 FILLIES’ NOVICE STAKES

STORM LADY was a 160k breeze up handled tenderly in the soft on debut behind Stoutes FORMAL (running today at HQ). Her sire ZOUSTAR is the champ rocket sire down-under but is a question mark for todays British ground. That said, he dam sire is PIVOTAL! He’s brilliant broodmare sire and produces mud lovers! The drift from 11/8 out to 9/4 suggests Fahey himself is unsure on the ground too.

RYKA should be mud lover on ped, but her action is low.

SUPERMODEL (what a name!) for Shaggas has a brilliant pedigree but might just be looked after in these conditions on debut in typical Haggas fashion.

Palmers MALDEVIOUS has had two runs to a low standard. Being by KODI BEAR she might get the ground but all her dam history favours firm.

The other two for Balding and Newland might need more time.

Verdict: If STORM LADY handles the mud then she could start paying back her big price tag but it wouldn’t be a strong view with fears including the Haggas horse SUPERMODEL - Haggas is double handed for owners - he runs fave MADRA in the race after). In fact, Saeed Suhail is mob handed with SUPERMODEL, MARDRA and MORE THUNDER! All shorties… treble pending!? Might be worth a lunch money treble?

14.50 6F CLASS 4 NOVICE STAKES

As aforementioned, NARDRA is strong fave here - weird for a Hagga debutant a, due to his training methods, the markets tend to take his 2yo debutants on!

But, the market is suggesting a bold show and she is bred for the mud. By gun NIGHT OF THUNDER, she’s out fo a ROCK OF GIBRALTAR mare - both sides will mean this ground won’t be a question - the only real wuestion is, is she ready to win?

TOP BINS for Palmer has seen some support (clearly fancied) and he has had a run - so experience is ke here, can almost 10lbs on to the field for that. Form boosted by DARK ROSA going in yesterday but it was a very low level race at Chester and it won’t take much to beat that form line.

Burkies NINETEEN FOURTYWO is a drifter which is telling, the yard are often too quik to show their hand when they like one…

SWEET FANTASTIC is another for Palmer - watch the money as the yard will now which one is better. That said, his pedigree is better for the mud so perhaps they don’t know?

Verdict: NARDRA is bred to be special, the others aren’t. If she’s ready, the 5lbs allowance might just see a brilliant performance here.

15.25 5F CLASS 2 NURSERY HANDICAP

FRANCISCOS PIECE could be Haydock nap material here and the market agrees. He’s already pumped the Burke overnight fave KING OF LIGHT at York and then demolished a good French field in the mud.

Verdict: FRANCISCOS PIECE is an out and out mud lover finally back on heavy ground. 5lbs more to carry now versus Burkies from York but we don’t think that’ll stop him! Win and distance markets activated! 22/1 for 4 lengths and 15/1 for 3 lengths is recommended.

16.00 1M 6F CLASS 3 HANDICAP

FILIBUSTERING didn’t get a run lto for a long time and pretty much race gone when clear. Huge action, needs it deep. Light weight. backed into fave - she’s the right fave.

The dangers in this might be SAM HAWKENS whose only win was in a bad race in the mud and HOT FUSS - but this trip raises questions.

CALVERT can’t be dismissed. His back form on sift brings him in to this.

The other two for Dunlop and Muir/Grassick might struggle in these conditions.

Verdict: Between FILIBUSTERING and CALVERT.

The last two Haydock handicaps are too tough to read. For the 17.40, LORD BERTIE - is perhaps the only standout pedigree who’ll like soft imo! Bar maybe ENCOURAGEABLE but god knows what’s happened to him!

We’ll leave them.

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RISK ON

Okay, so after all that. What are the bets?

We’ll start with Haydock singles:

14.50 NARDRA - small win bet 11/8

15.25 FRANCISCO’S PIECE - strong win bet 7/4

16.00 CALVERT - small ew 15/2 (most books paying 3 places)

Newmarket singles:

13.50 SIRONA - medium win bet 9/4

16.10 SEAPLANE & FRANKINI - rev fc paying 5’s both ways

16.45 MILITARY ACADEMY - full win bet 1/1

Perms:

SIRONA, NARDRA, FRANCISCOS PIECE, & MILITARY ACADEMY 40/1 four fold

FAIR POINT top 3, DUTY FIRST top 3, SEAPLANE top 2 & FILIBUSTERING top 3 - 5/1 place acca using BET365 (other books available).

Leverage to any bet is 15.10 POTTERS CHARM!

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