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Equinties - Cheltenham changes
Gm Equinauts
We are very unimpressed with the change to the XC.
Gm and fuck everyone who decided to turn the XC back into a stinking handicap.
— BGP Capital (@equinties)
7:28 AM • Sep 17, 2024
Let’s dive in.
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
CHELTENHAM CHANGES
NH fans screamed, and screamed, and screamed from the rooftops to change something about the Cheltenham Festival after the 2024 renewal. Cries of the current programme not being fit for purpose as our ‘Olympics’ echoed all over Racing X, around the racing the pubs and more importantly, amidst the race goers at Royal Ascot - where that event just keeps getting better and better.
Whether you’re a die hard jumps fan or just a general racing enthusiast or punter, it’s hard to argue Royal Ascot isn’t head and shoulders above anything else in the calendar.
Unpopular opinion: Royal Ascot > Cheltenham.
— BGP Capital (@equinties)
11:17 AM • Jun 22, 2024
Nothing has trumped Royal Ascot this year as the best big racing race meeting and we guess it’ll hold that accolade for a few years to come, purely on the gap between second and first.
Cheltenham is too busy, too expensive and, unless you try land a lottery across-the-week-Mullins-acca, the betting opportunities are quite slim owed to the fact most of the open races are headed by odds on shots.
The Jockey Club has taken note of the quick decline of the event and have taken action by making some changes.
Big changes to the Cheltenham Festival!
The Turners Novices' Chase and the Cross Country Chase are to become handicaps from 2025...
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces)
6:31 PM • Sep 16, 2024
We can’t believe we’re saying this but, the best betting race of the whole meeting - the XC, has been turned back into a f*cking handicap!
Our favourite event - where we’ve taken big yield regularly from the likes of TIGER ROLL and DELTA WORK is now subject to a weights lottery where the best horses won’t win.
Okay the counter-arguement is for horses like OUR SAM, DIESEL D’ALLIER, ALPHA DES OBEAUX, and URGENT DE GREGAINE who don’t have a chance off level weights.
But our view si the XC is such a unique spectacle that it doesn’t really need to be messed about by handicapping.
Obviously, yes, we are completely biased here because readers of the newsletter will know that it’s often our big betting race. Ever since Mullins took hold over the game, the XC might have been our only big bet we’d have in the week where 11/10 about DELTA WORK in a 16 runner field is true value.
We’re devastated ngl.
That’s not the only change, the Turners Novices’ Chase is now going to be a novice handicap chase, much like the race that we had on the card until 2020.
What’s also worth noting is this new novices’ handicap chase is set to be open whereas the previous race, a contest won by IMPERIAL AURA and A PLUS TARD in the past, was a 0-145.
This change will directly alter the Arkle and Brown Advisory for notable reasons, but also the Plate Handicap Chase on the same card.
Back in the day (four years ago), the Plate was run on the New Course (Thursday) and the Novices’ Handicap Chase was run on the old course (Tuesday). Will they revert to that, or will they change other things?
Word at the water cooler is that more changes are still yet to come.
What they will do about the Plate, and specifically the line in the Racing Post about changes occurring to horses being “eligible to contest a handicap at the meeting”, will be interesting, but it’s certainly something to watch.
OTHER JUMPS UPDATES
Well, the news (apart from Cheltenham) was a bit dry yesterday, so it’s worth highlighting a few other bits of jumps, yes jumps, news that may have been missed.
Firstly, Olly Murphy provided a few updates on the weekend, and the interesting one is the target of GO DANTE who will be aimed at the Greatwood Hurdle after one prep run (which will be quiet).
🗣️ Olly Murphy - Horses To Follow for the 2024/25 jumps season
- Handicapper to follow who will target the Greatwood ✍️
- The young horse he is “really looking forward to” 👀
- A dark horse for this season
- Update on Strong LeaderMy thanks to @O_J_murphy91 for his time. 🙌
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno)
8:42 AM • Sep 15, 2024
The Greatwood is a big race and it’s one that will also have DYSART ENOS, the once ante-post favourite for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, who has a rating of just 131. That is just 12lbs below the rating of GOLDEN ACE who she beat in a Grade 2 bumper at the 2023 Aintree Grand National meeting.
GO DANTE, who has a rating of 134, beat DODDIETHEGREAT at the December meeting in Cheltenham who went on to finish fourth in the Betfair Hurdle.
Speaking of Fergal O’Brien (the trainer of DYSART ENOS), he has lost an unexposed horse ahead of this season as GO TO WAR will now be trained by Nicky Henderson!
He’s won two novice hurdles at Ludlow and has been sent off at odds of 5/6, 4/6, and 4/7 so far in his career, so he must have been well-regarded by connections.
Go To War (4-6f) excels in the two-mile novices' hurdle @LudlowRaceClub for @FOBRacing and @PaddyBrennan81 🏇
Pembroke, last season's vanquished County Hurdle favourite, won this last year ...
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
3:43 PM • Dec 20, 2023
What’s the age-old phrase? Once the Leger is over, we can start talking about the jumps, right?
PRIME-TIME MINISTER
Wathnan Racing have made a big splash this season, but their recent success over the last month has probably been below expectations.
However, they are looking to change that in Saturday’s Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes as the unbeaten DEFENCE MINISTER has been supplemented for £5,000.
His form is hard to weigh up, but he is by TOO DARN HOT out of the Listed-placed TEARS OF THE SUN (a half-sister to the Group 3 winner KILMAH), so his page is nice.
🎈Breeze Up Sale graduate Defence Minister continues to impress, making it two from two in the @BritishEBF Novice Stakes @haydockraces for Hamad Al Jehani, @the_doyler & Wathnan Racing
Purchased in May from @HydeStud for €210,000 by @BlandfordBldstk
— Tattersalls Ireland (@Tattersalls_ie)
3:53 PM • Sep 5, 2024
He’s unexposed, but it could be a nice little race with the Gimcrack winner COOL HOOF LUKE (who has a penalty to give away) as well as the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes winner SYMBOL OF STRENGTH, CAMILLE PISSARRO, and the impressive Aidan O’Brien-trained Group 3 winner IDES OF MARCH.
With it being 4/1 the field, this should be a good race to watch.
RISK ON
Unlucky yesterday with our only bet smashed from 11/4 into 13/8 only to fall at the second last when in the lead. Get used to it, that’s jumps racing!
Skelton falls in the home straight on a complete smash up job.
THE JUMPS ARE SO BACK.
— BGP Capital (@equinties)
3:06 PM • Sep 16, 2024
We like one or two today but we’ll wait for a few calls and the markets to settle - they’ll be posted to X @equinties.
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