Equinties - Champion sell-off

Author

BGP Capital
February 27, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

As from today we have a full team back behind this newsletter again and it’s all systems to go for the build up to Cheltenham… for us anyway.

It certainly doesn’t look like all systems go for CONSTITUTION HILL who has drifted markedly on the exchange after a very poor bit work at Kempton this morning where he was seen trailing in last and making a rattle.

Thoughts and prayers with everyone’s ante-posts!

More news to follow.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NICHOLLS’ MEDIA DAY 

The British press were invited down to Ditcheat yesterday morning for a thorough rundown of Paul Nicholls’ Cheltenham Festival team (although it would seem only @ASymondsJourno was there from the amount of tweets we’ve nicked from him).

Lots of content was collected, but here are the main talking areas. Firstly, the boss of Manor Farm Stables highlighted two handicappers to keep onside in this video from @ASymondsJourno… 

And he certainly was very complimentary on one of those. 

BMG was also flagged as “great value” in the Gold Cup, HITMAN looks like too big of a price in the Ryanair, and he could have a 33/1 sleeper in the Champion Bumper market. 

But what should we make of all this chat? It’s no secret that Nicholls is fond of talking his horses up, but he also doesn’t beat around the bush. In years gone by, he has freely admitted when his team wasn’t the strongest, but that wasn’t the case yesterday. He very much hit home the idea of quality over quantity, and his dozen of Festival runners this year should all be heading to Presbury Park with a decent chance. 

GORDONS MEDIA DAY 

With the amount of media days at the moment, it’s as if the Festival is just two weeks away! It was Gordon Elliott’s turn yesterday for the Irish press as he revealed plans for a plethora of top-class horses. 

The first we feel we should start with is BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. Listening to Elliott, Jack Kennedy, and even Harry Swan, she is as close to a 2/1 certainty as you will ever see. 

We have all seen the tweets saying that Elliott tries to keep his excitement levels down about horses like this, but he just can’t contain himself. Well, this is what he said yesterday: “Shane McCann, who is as good a judge as we have here, riders her every day and he thinks she’s as good as anything we’ve ever had here. 

“That would include Don Cossack, everything. I wouldn’t have any worries about coming back in trip with her for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. She’ll be one to go chasing with next season I’d imagine.”

Well, that’s bullish. She has the pedigree to back the bulls. Out of MATNIE – related to CALDWELL POTTER and MIGHTY POTTER, there does indeed seem to be better days ahead… possible better Gold Cup days ahead?

As for the rest, a quick read of Kevin Blake’s stable tour does yesterday justice, but the one we wanted to flag as an interesting one is THE GOFFER in the Ultima. 

Having finished third in the race last year, this looks like a bit of a long-term plan and Elliott is very happy with him, as he said: “He hit the front a mile too soon [last year] and I thought he was a bit unlucky. He had a perfect preparation when winning a charity race at Punchestown last week.” Charity race to Ultima Handicap Chase. That would certainly be some route lmao.

THE GREAT DEBATE

And finally, this isn’t news, but we have made a special exception for this video of Phillip Davies debating against the proposed affordability checks on gambling. 

For a man who is clearly a big racing fan, and he even admits to being a “modest owner of racehorses and the owner of modest racehorses”, his execution of argument and speech is impeccable. No emotion. No frustration. Just pure facts and straight-to-the-point statements.

As many have shouted from the hilltops over the last few years, the new proposed affordability checks could wreck British horse racing as we know it. Debates like this in our government are crucial, and the support around this video just shows how big the horse racing community is. Both this video and Kevin Blake’s rallying defense of racing on Talk TV demonstrate that when we pull together, we are strong. 

RISK ON

Frustrating day yesterday and one single went in easily only to be given back with a bad bet at Wolves.

On to today… it’s tough.

People say there are no certainties in racing, a sentiment helped by todays madness on the exchange for the Champion Hurdle.

But those saying that have clearly never watched David Maxwell.

Whether it’s bailing on a good thing owed to cramp or delivering a racy post-race interview on live TV, brilliant entertainment whenever David Maxwell is around a race track is an absolute certainty… but naturally, comes with a load of risk:

We can’t seriously tip CAT TIGER in Leicester’s penultimate race but 4’s is quite big. He’s so clear of the majority of this aged mostly aged) field it’s a brilliant price. Leicesters layout (banked most of the way) means this horse will struggle to duck out again and if Maxwell can hold on and just steer, the pair should recapture this race having won it in ‘21.

This is not financial advice and we’ll be happy to have a tools down day but we hope every single one of you will watch the 16.35 and cheer on the best man in racing.

No bets.