Equinties - champion mum to be

Author

BGP Capital
May 16, 2023

Equinties

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

What makes a good day? A winner from one of the best form lines around right now.

A day made even better when the whole market missed it too.

It's going to be a big week with as York's 3 day festival kicks off tomorrow. Don't go mad with the betting - play the TOTE Fantasy to keep your chimp interested.

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Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

Track and back

It's 2yo season and that means the hundreds of yearlings who went through the sales ring last year have now started to hit the track a lot bigger and stronger than when they were last seen. 

The yearlings, now 2yo's should have all drastically changed in shape, size and strength, but one thing remains the same - their page. The team behind the BGP Capital made reams of notes on the best looking and best bred yearlings, and now it's time to track how they get on. 

On 'the list' is a beautiful, strong colt by DUE DILIGENCE. He was gorgeous at the sales but screamed a later type, so it is a surprise to see him out now for Jessica Macey in the 16.50. One would have liked this lad to go to a better yard (and the 40/1 suggests he's out for a public schooling today) but whatever happens, don't underestimate how nice this lad looked at the sales. One to watch.

He's up against a few other's from the Tatt's October sales including the ROOM SERVICE for Kevin Ryan. This lad really chucked his right fore out in walk and still went for 115k -show's how hot the market was. He was pretty lively in the parade ring too, check him at the start today - he might be a bit of a hot head!

Like our new feature 'Young Blood', we'll highlight and comment on the 2yo's from our sales list.

A quick WALK to the covering shed!

Even younger than yearlings, some foal news now as recently retired champion mare HONEYSUCKLE is in foal to top NH sire WALK IN THE PARK. 

She was 16 days covered yesterday less than two months after she left the Henry de Bromhead yard. 

This is great news and we can’t wait to see her progeny on the track. 

Sticking with foals, QUEEN OF THE STAGE, dam of the hugely exciting CONSTITUTION HILL, is again in foal to BLUE BRESIL to add a second sibling to the Champion Hurdle winner. They really want another CONSTITUTION HILL don't they.

INSPIRAL OUT

Longtime ante-post favourite for Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes on Saturday, INSPIRAL, will not head to the Group 1 one-mile event, connections confirmed. 

The Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, the contest BAAEED won last year, will now be the next time we see this daughter of FRANKEL on the track. Remember, she won at Royal Ascot off a 252-day break last year in the Coronation Stakes.

Cheveley Park’s managing director, Chris Richardson, said: “There is no issue with her - she looks great, but she is not quite there, is the general feeling. It is like last year, so rather than rush her, we decided to wait.

“We just felt she blossomed in June last year and we didn’t really want to rush her.”

MODERN GAMES, NATIVE TRAIL, and MALJOOM are just a few of the names entered for the Queen Anne next week and INSPIRAL is the 4/1 favourite. Here's a look back at the mighty BAAEED's win:

Kev and Killarney 

And finally, interference was the hot topic yesterday and, just like Royal Ascot, Kevin Blake obviously had to get his point across.

SALDIER, winner of the 2m7f novice chase at odds of 7/4 on Sunday at Killarney, dramatically jumped into the eventual runner-up, VINA ARDANZA, at the final fence and still kept the race. Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old went on to lose by just a nose having been nearly stopped in his tracks by the nine-year-old, however, despite the stewards having a look, they did not overturn the result.

It took the stewards 10 whole minutes to put down their cake and call an enquiry.  

So, if this even needs to be asked, should it have been reversed? Yes.

Just on the video evidence, the runner-up has to check himself on landing, take some quick steps to the side, and then build his momentum back up. Over the last, they are probably separated by a quarter of a length - after the last, there is a good length between the pair. Now considering that VINA ARDANZA has lost by a few inches, the decision is totally wrong. Racing gets it so wrong sometimes.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

17.40 Sandown

A novice event for the girls and it's a good one today.

Market headed by another Amo 2yo (obviously) in GRACEFUL THUNDER by rocket sire HAVAN GREY. A full sister to 81 rated, the pedigree isn't great dam side but as we know, HAVAN GREY has a great habit of 'upgrading' the mares he see's. See thread: 

MISS MACH ONE has both the strong name and strong ped being a half to horses in the 100's. The INVINCIBLE ARMY yearlings we saw at the Tatts sales were a bit of mixed bag - some lovely looking repping a strong blood line and some weak, missing an ass. This one's dam produced MILL REEF 2nd FIVETHOUSANDTOONE and she ran a credible fourth on debut - respected.

Descendant of the breeding powerhouse Robert Sangster, Ollie Sangster is in his first year as a trainer and has the 50k BOANN repping him today. She's by BLUE POINT who is having a great start to his second career. This filly's dam is from the immediate family of MOTHER EARTH.

Balding has the expensive horse in the race, a 340k breeze up. Being a breeze she'll know her job and we think Balding would have cracked on with this girl rather than letting her down after the tough sales process. If Royal Ascot is on the agenda, of which he has a good record with with 2yo's, then she could certainly be firing today.

Verdict: BOANN has been supported and is a worthy candidate for Ollie Sangster, a new trainer who learned the ropes from crack 2yo trainer Weslety Ward but MISS MACH ONE is race fit, experience and just might not have like the famous 'dip' lto and should be bang there today. A nod to Balding's FLORA OF BERMUDA too who looked nice as a yearling.

Risk on

16.25 TIMES EYE

Starting to like EXPERT EYE fillies and this girl has run 3 good races without winning. This is easier competition today. We envisage Watson's coming 2nd. She's a half bet at 11/4.

18.05 FERNAO

Over in Ireland for this one. McCeery won this maiden last year and he has a good chance of backing that up today. Horse is a son of FRANKEL and bro to Gr 1 winner AL WUKAIR. Blew the start lto but came swinging late. That was his first run and should have learnt plenty Half bet at 11/8.

Another bet might be posted on Twitter @equinties. 

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: 

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