Equinties - Challow day

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We love Challow day!

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There is a £100k placepot on offer today at Newbury to boot, so if you’re not a judge, find a friend who can mark your card and get involved for a few quid.

Let’s dive in!

HEADLINE ROUND UP

CHANGING SCENE

The Christmas period is winding down, and this can only mean a couple of things, we’ve eaten far too much food; the mere thought of alcohol makes us feel a little wheezy; and the Cheltenham ante-post markets have had a few shake-ups.

We’ll be doing our Christmas awards review later this week, but for now, it’s time to look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and you all know why!

After some major three-mile Grade 1 chases, the Cheltenham Gold Cup is now 5/1 the field, with six horses priced shorted than 10/1. Talk about competitive!

Let’s start with the King George. THE JUKEBOX MAN is now 8/1 third favourite for the Gold Cup after his Kempton win, with GAELIC WARRIOR at 10/1 and JANGO BAIE the same price.

You can’t rule any horse out of the Gold Cup based on this Christmas because they all ran fine races, but you can make a few educated guesses. Funnily enough, even though he’s an Arkle winner, there’s a case to be made that things happened a little bit too quickly for JANGO BAIE in the King George. He travelled well, but he was slower than expected at a few of his jumps, and it took Nico de Boinville really rallying him at the last for him to jump perfectly and maintain momentum. He got sticky into the third last, and a better jump there may have seen him closer than his losing margin of half a length. Back at a track that he is two from two at (Cheltenham), things may just settle into a nicer rhythm for him, and the test of a Gold Cup and that hill could really suit him. He was staying on at the line, after all, and a slightly slower tempo could work.
He definitely emerged from the King George with plenty of positives.

As for GAELIC WARRIOR, some might question his stamina over 3m2f as he wasn’t the fastest finisher in the final furlong, but could that be owed to the fast ground? We think he’s a horse transformed over a trip but will he be ridden? He’ll probably be dropped in in a GC and pick up horses late in (probably) softer ground that he had here. That doesn’t usually see him in the best light, and if they make plenty of use of him from the front, an extra emphasis on stamina would occur.

What about THE JUKEBOX MAN? At the start of the season, Ben Pauling actually mentioned the Ryanair as a potential Cheltenham race for him, and he’s always had plenty of speed. For these reasons, one would have to question if he even went to the Gold Cup, let alone whether he actually stays 3m2f. That being said, there was nothing glaring from his King George win that suggested 3m2f is completely out of his reach. He could well stay the trip. After the King George, Ben Pauling said: “It’d be daft not to go for the Gold Cup now. We’ll see how he comes out of the race. He’s a character, he’s got a big engine and a big heart. It’ll take a few days to sink in, especially after the hangover, but these are the days you want to be a part of."

Maybe Pauling now wants to head to the King George because he almost feels obligated to, but a few days of thinking could see him change that mind. We’re sure someone will follow up on this. We all know the King George is a lot different to the Gold Cup, so this will be a completely new test. However, and as we said in the lead up to Boxing Day, THE JUKEBOX MAN has very few negatives. The rest do have one or two, but JUKEY does not. This is an unbelievably strong trait to have, and one that can often be overlooked.

As for the Irish, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS found I AM MAXIMUS and AFFORDALE FURY too good in the Savills Chase. The money came for Sam Ewing’s mount, and he was really good to win despite jumping markedly out to his right.

He could well play a part in the Gold Cup. However, he probably just caught GDC lacking for fitness on his first start of the season (and after a setback). There was a moment when GDC looked like the winner, but he probably was a notch below his best yesterday, and that’s fine! He will probably be a different animal at the DRF. He will be 10, and yes, time is not on his side anymore but 10 is fine for staying horses.

In terms of a Gold Cup, it was a lovely start to his season, so there can’t be too many negatives to say about him. At last year’s DRF, he beat GRANGECLARE WEST by nearly five and MONTY’S STAR by nearly eight. Yesterday, he was three lengths ahead of the former and two-and-a-half lengths ahead of the latter. That sounds about right, and he’s entitled to improve for the run.vStep one of regaining the Gold Cup is on, step two will be the DRF, and step three will be the blue riband event itself, though he’ll have some new blood to take on.

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN beat him at Cheltenham in March, but in two starts this season, he’s run like stink, and it is hard to see him bouncing back to what we saw in the Gold Cup. To a degree, yes, Gavin Cromwell has one day in mind, and that’s Cheltenham in March, so he could just be a completely different animal in three months’ time. He also walked in the market before, so that would be another sign that the yard knew what was happening. However, at least he showed something in this race last year by finishing fifth. This year, he was beaten almost immediately, and Cromwell now has three months to turn him around from this into a Gold Cup winner, which will not be easy at all.

Overall, THE JUKEBOX MAN, JANGO BAIE, and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS did plenty to enhance their Gold Cup credentials this Christmas, though there is still plenty of water to go under the bridge.

We emphasise again… this years National Hunt season is shaping brilliantly.

MULLINS’ NOVICE TO WATCH

So, looking at yesterday’s Leopardstown card, it was hard not to be impressed by LAZARE DE STAR in the opening 2m4f maiden hurdle. He went off 6/4, and he won like a very smart horse. We loved the way he travelled around the home turn, and his jumping was sound throughout.

He looks like a potential Turners horse to us, though he does have to keep improving, obviously. Not only was the manner of his victory impressive, but he also provides a nice form boost to a Willie Mullins novice that we could see very soon.

For a while, we have been wondering where Mullins’ big novice hurdling star is, but could he be SAINT BACO, the horse that beat LAZARE DE STAR at Navan at the start of this month by nearly four lengths?

In a time that has seen Mullins’ novices really need the run, he looked like a proper one to fend off LAZARE DE STAR, and he did that on soft ground over two miles. He will definitely want a trip, and that’s why Mullins is likely to try him in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Naas on January 4th over 2m4f. Known as the Lawlor’s Of Naas in years gone by, Mullins has won the race with READIN TOMMY WRONG, CHAMP KIELY, and NEXT DESTINATION before, and two of them certainly turned into nice stayers. Mullins has a few in here, notably SORTUDO, SOBER, COPACABANA, and DAVY CROCKETT, but it’ll be interesting to see if they do pull the trigger on SAINT BACO in this race.

Based on his form, he could be rather smart.

ITV RACING PICKS

We’re going to start providing some fun selections for the ITV Racing schedule. We hope they help!

13.50 3M 2F HANDICAP CHASE

KINGS THESHOLD likes Newbury and the ground might just enough cut in it for him. He could be the answer in a field owning a lot of question marks.

14.10 2M 2F YORKSHIRE SILVER VASE MARES CHASE

We like PAGGANE here on the ground. Mullins’ odds on fave might need slower ground.

14.22 2M 4F HANDICAP HURDLE

A tough, non-betting race for us, but our ITV pick would be PEACENIK who looked good last time out. If he goes from the front again, he’ll test the others.

14.32 2M GRADE 1 CHRISTMAS HURDLE

LOSSIEMOUTH

14.45 3M HANDICAP HURDLE

This is a really tough race but the market is strong on ROCKOLA VOGUE who’s had her form franked recently. Maybe the ever-consistent SPIKE JONES can show up at a price but this wouldn’t be a betting race for us. Classic.

15.00 2M 4F CHALLOW HURDLE

NO DRAMA THIS END.

15.15 2M 6F HANDICAP HURDLE

The ground is quicker than usual up North and we like PARISIAN FASHION back on the faster surface.

15.35 2M 6F NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE

Surely a chance has to be taken on CAPTAIN BELLAMY. He’d have needed his first run and could be a different proposition today for the yard who won this race last year.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.32 GRADE 1 DECEMBER HURDLE

Even though LOSSIEMOUTH is 4/6 in this field, this Grade 1 December Hurdle is still a good race. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD and ANZADAM are no mugs, and a few including IRANCY could improve from their first run.

Let’s start with LOSSIEMOUTH. She is a race-fit horse in this field, and she won the Morgiana easily. On RPRs, it was supposedly a career best, but she beat nothing and she was pushed out to make sure she got the job done. She clearly sets the standard based on what she did in the Mares’ Hurdle in March, though she is still a bit inexperienced around Leopardstown with one run and one fall.

BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD dispatched of STATE MAN in this race last year. Can she do the same here? Why connections have kept her to hurdles is still a bit weird, and this is her first run of the season. She improved for her first outing last campaign to win this, so there’s the worry she made need this. However, Gordon Elliott’s yard is fairly flying, and they are potentially going a little bit better than Mullins currently. She is full of talent, and she can almost be forgiven for her spring efforts now returning to a track she clearly likes.

ANZADAM disappointed in the Fighting Fifth as he travelled like the winner and found nothing. Usually when this happens it’s a sign for lacking fitness, and that could be the case. Still, he has yet to really show that he is a proven Grade 1 horse, but GOLDEN ACE ran a nice race behind SIR GINO at Kempton on Boxing Day to somewhat frank the form. He is the Mullins second string, and Patrick Mullins taking the ride isn’t the strongest vote of confidence.

IRANCY is the Mullins third string. He was very poor behind LOSSIEMOUTH, and his win over SALVATOR MUNDI at Punchestown in April has taken a few knocks form-wise. It’s hard to see him winning this on the back of such a poor effort, but an improve effort to then build on for the rest of the season could be interesting.

CASHELDALE LAD was giving TEAHUPOO a good race in the Hatton’s Grace before falling at the last. That form looks good after yesterday’s Christmas Hurdle, and CASHELDALE LAD could like the return to two miles as he was looking a bit tired over 2m4f. Not completely out of this as he was improving nicely up until his Fairyhouse fall.

HELLO NEIGHBOUR is back after a 240-day break in the National Hunt sphere, and he did finish third to LULAMBA at Punchestown in May. That form looks nice now. The Gavin Cromwell yard is still arguably under a cloud, and this is his first run for 181 days, so he could need it today.

WINTER FOG is an unlikely winner based on this season’s runs, and FUTURUM REGEM is more likely to pull up than win a race like this. Seriously, how is a 98-rated yoke in this field?

Verdict: LOSSIEMOUTH is a lady weapon and she should win it but will be only a watching prospect today if not one for the speccy perms.

15.00 2M 4F GRADE 1 CHALLOW

Nicholls has won four of the last five running’s of this race, often with good ones (think STAGE STAR and BRAVEMANSGAME). Paul knows what it takes to bag this. Fom his comments, he thinks NO DRAMA THIS END can go on to be like his mega-star DENMAN. He’ll need to win this well. We wish the Challow had an ante-post market so we could have got on him after Cheltenham!

Let’s look at his ‘opposition’ (in name only).

STARZAND was a quarter milli purchase and to be fair to him, he has done absolutely nothing wrong yet. He’s 1/1 over hurdles but really needs to step up here.

KALKBRENNER is nicely bred but only for handicaps. His point form suggests there is some improvement to come but he’s quite far off the top.

MONTEMARTES is by FRONTIERSMA who has really surprised us this year. He’s banging in the winners, but at a moderate level and that is where this guy will stay.

The market is disrespecting KLIMT MADRIK slightly given he’s bigger than Pauling’s runner who he beat last time out.

ETNA BAINCO has a flat oriented dam side. This lad will set the pace as a front runner and it will be until he can hold on. He could make a good pace maker for NO DRAMA THIS END.

GIANTS GRAVE is going to be a nice horse but desperately needs heavy going. He’d be some sort of a bet if the rain came!

TIPTOPTIM is there to give the owners a day out.

Verdict: NO DRAMA THIS END really needs to win this. He hasn’t come off the bridle yet, and we can’t really see him doing it here either!

RISK ON

It’s tough today! We want to be accurate so will ponder a bit more and then psot on X @equinties.