Equinties - Chaldown

Gm Equinauts

Big week this week, the rocket has been entered - now we wait for dec’s.

Let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 250 stables, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

Good things come in small packages

Great racing does NOT need big fields.

Case in point, the 2022 Clarence House produced one of the most memorable National Hunt battles ever as two top horses, SHISHKIN and ENERGUMENE went toe to toe over two miles:

For the past few years, Sandown’s Group 1 Eclipse has been low on numbers, but that hasn’t stopped it continually being one of the highlights of the flat season. Think ST MARK’S BASILICA romp in ‘21 or '22’s blanket finish between VADENI, MISHRIFF, NATIVE TRAIL and LORD NORTH where only a length separated them.

But Racing Twitter are quick to forget. They see only 4 line up for this years renewal and think ‘well, hat a sh*t show’.

How wrong they were, just look at this race:

PADDINGTON, having started the season in the Madrid handicap off 97, is now a three-time Group 1 winner and is lined up be a proper hos’ across the rest of the season, with the Group 1 Sussex Stakes and Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes on the agenda.

As for EMILY UPJOHN, she gave seven pounds away due to the weight-for-age allowance and saw her opponent get first run on her, so she has given an outstanding performing effort and arguably would have been a whole lot closer to winning if given a different ride.

The Eclipse was a proper race – long live racing.

Freebie or good one?

Sandown’s opening race was the very interesting Group 3 Coral Charge, a race that went the way of Charlie Hills’ EQUALITY.

The progressive five-year-old showed good power to streak away from the field and win under William Buick but wow did they give him an easy time of it up front.

Arguably the big thing from the race was the betting market pre-race.

MARSHMAN was backed into clear fav all morning at 3/1, TIBER FLOW saw money in the morning, ANNAF was a big drifter and GET AHEAD, the early money horse, drifted out again before the race. Very differing market views on the predicted outcome…

With MARSHMAN, Karl Burke and the yard must be scratching their heads at what has happened to their three-year-old as he is continually backed each race for nothing. He is yet to build on his fto victory in France this year and one can only now watch him for the remainder of the season.

ChalDOWN

Outside of the UK, there was some great racing in France and the US this weekend and Oisin Murphy was involved in most of them.

The first of which came in the Belmont Oaks as ASPEN GROVE for Fozzy Stack won at odds of 15/1 – she had been readily beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas and Prix Marcel Boussac, so for her to be winning this shows the lack of class over in the US.

Over an hour later, the former champion jockey came close to making it an Oaks-Derby double, however, he left it just too late on THE FOXES and couldn’t get past FAR BRIDGE in the Belmont Derby.

But, it was the disappointment aboard CHALDEAN in the Prix Jean Prat that is the one which holds the most relevance.

The English Guineas winner never looked like the winner yesterday in France’s feature Group 1 event and even saw INDESTRUCTIBLE reverse the form of the St James’s Palace.

So, what to think of this?

Well, it’s not about the Guineas form. Okay, O-on the face of it, 11 horses have run 20 races since without victory (or even getting that close to winning) with the two winners since being AUGUSTE RODIN and LITTLE BIG BEAR, two horses who very much disappointed on the day and have won over different trips. But let’s concentrate on the CHALDEAN form lines. We have followed him and everything around him all season and reaped the rewards of it. He’s just run very flat. All the British horses did.

We’d draw a line in that race.

STATS OF THE DAY

FLYING MOON 15.30 is a 5 timer course winner and won this race last year off a higher mark.

Money says the fave just wins but Haynes’ ARIZONA DESERT 18.15 might make it a race at 7’s. Not far off SHES A GAMBLER on debut who has won again, Haynes is 3 from 7 in these types of races at track.

Eve lands 1 in 3 non-handicaps at Chepstow and has two entered today. ETHANDUM 18.30 looks her strongest chance.

YOUNG BLOOD

14.20 AYR

DARK ENCOUNTER by DARK ANGEL. Ran creditably on debut behind a good one and should improve nicely from that experience. Connections decided to put him up a furlong today, his half brother won over 1m4 for SMP - was a plot job.

CERULEAN BAY - by NEW BAY and his dam produced some nice enough horses. He won in a bunch finish at Hamilton, the third has since won so it looks ok form but he has to carry a penalty today which isn’t an easy feat. Improvement likely, the weight to carry is a worry.

INDIVIDUALISM cost 110k as a yearling, by TOO DARN HOT and a half brother to Gr1 winner SUBJECTIVIST and SIR RON PRISTLEY who was 2nd in the St Leger. TOO DARN HOT’s progeny look to be taking a bit of time and the mares progeny get better with age. Both the aforementioned half brothers ran second on debut but the ew price is getting squeezed out and there’s only 6 runners. Best to watch on debut

LAND LOVER is finding it hard to finish in front. He has been running with great credit but he needs to improve more and is looking exposed.

CATENA is by CABLE BAY, she won lto. The second ran badly nto but the 4th ran in the same race and won so the form is mixed. Needs a big improvement though and might find that hard against the boys.

Verdict: Short but DARK ENCOUNTER looks the best of these.

RISK ON

Looks a bad day of racing with no standout bets, but have found one deserving small stakes to keep the chimp occupied. Protect your bank this week, you’ll need it.

17.55 PER CONTRA

Small blood play here. Sangster bang in form and the money generally speaks volumes for this yard. He’s a full brother to ROUDEMENTAL who is okay for Palmer. Given how weak this race is, could be the best here. Jamie going for one ride. First time out 2yo means smaller stakes, half bet 11/8.

Our ante-post bet will be sent out tonight to all Saturday subscribers.