Equinties - can the cadran

Gm Equinauts

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HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CAN THE CADRAN

We’re happy to big up Arc week as much as the next man, but there was a bit of depressing news yesterday regarding the Prix du Cadran. The Group 1 staying contest on the first day of the Arc meeting attracted just three confirmations after 16, yes 16, previously entered horses were taken out, and none of the remaining contenders are Group 1 winners!

Furthermore, no French-trained horse remains in the race, though trainer Christophe Ferland is expected to supplement DOUBLE MAJOR for the contest. DOUBLE MAJOR is a four-time Group 2 winner at 1m6f+, and he won the 2023 Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak over 1m7f, so he is a pretty reasonable inclusion in the race, though normally, he would be a double-figure price for a Group 1 staying contest. We imagine he could well be favourite on Saturday!

But still, let’s take DOUBLE MAJOR out of the equation for a second and look at what else in in the race. We have SUNWAY, David Menuisier’s four-year-old who probably hasn’t been the same horse since Group 1 Irish Derby second and Group 1 St Leger third last season. He tried 2m2f for the first time in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup last time out, and he finished seventh of eight, and now he could attempt to take on the Cadran over 2m4f on Saturday. Hmm.

COLTRANE is the experienced stayer in this field, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing. He’s won one of his last nine races, and that was a Listed contest at Sandown over two miles two starts ago. He’s currently 0/11 in Group 2 or 1 races since his Group 2 Lonsdale Cup victory in 2023 (over two years ago). Hey, we love him though!

And then there’s his stablemate, ALSAKIB. He has won one of his eight outings in Listed or better company, and he’s only raced at two miles or further once. When he did, he finished seventh of eight in last season’s Group 2 Lonsdale Cup. Nice.

There you go, at the time of writing, that is this weekend’s Group 1 Prix de Cadran. The addition of DOUBLE MAJOR will help, but SUNWAY still isn’t even a confirmed runner yet, as Menuisier could take him to Ascot instead.

The flat staying division has been weak for a long time now. Why do we have such a poor turnout in these races?

Well, firstly, low stock could be an answer. Most of our middle and long distance horses get sold down under. Their market is so big, so powerful and so rich, they see, they want and they’re able to rape and pillage our stock to the point it decimates fields.

Our production line too plays a factor. For a while focus has been on breeding early speed. Why? Well, we think this is for a number for a number reasons but mainly it’s cost. With the cheap speed sires, an owner can have a horse out on the track at 2, where as the bigger, middle distance horses who need time to mature might only see action at the back end of their 3yo career. That’s many months of training fee’s the owner will have to pay out for any return!

Another consideration might be the commercial value. The top middle distance sires demand big cheques for your mare to have a quick bang in the covering barn, but often the slow plodders, the stayers, are often chucked into the NH spere where the stud fee’s are a lot lower.

Case in point, LUXEMBOURG, a two-time Group 1 at 1m2f and one-time Group 1 winner at 1m4f, is in Coolmore’s team of National Hunt sires and will demand a considerable stud fee less than most of his counterparts.

Anyway, back to the Cadaran. Another reason for the small turn out might be timing. Has it’s position in the calendar impeded it’s ability to attract the beat? The Long Distance Cup at Ascot will be more popular, right? And others might even go to the Prix Royal-Oak over just shy of two miles.

Whatever the reason, it’s a sad sight for the meeting.

ARC CONDITIONS

Speaking of the Cadran, we feel it’s best to update you all on the potential conditions this weekend at Paris Longchamp. In yesterday’s newsletter, when the weather forecasts were still formulating, it looked like the French capital could miss a few showers, indicating that Arc Weekend could be run on good ground.

However, things may be changing.

Firstly, David O’Meara is happy to run ESTRANGE in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. ESTRANGE, who is a soft ground winner that definitely likes a bit of cut in the surface, has been given the green light to run. What do Cheveley Park and O’Meara know?
Secondly, the Racing Post believes that some forecasts are predicting nearly 20mm of rain on late Friday/early Saturday. That’s a big change to the showers that were initially predicted.

Yes, yesterday we may have predicted that good ground would be the state of play this weekend, but a lot can change in 24 hours, and we honestly wouldn’t want to predict the ground now with such uncertainty in the air. That may seem like a naff statement, but it’s actually a very valuable one. The more information you have before placing an ante-post/long-term bet, the better. The less information you have, obviously, the less your bet starts to make sense.

It’s probably best waiting until at least Friday to fully start formulating your ‘who wins the Arc’ charts, because the ground and draw will be crucial.

On what the connections of ESTRANGE have decided, and some potential weather reports, it looks like softer ground could be the order of the day, but more will make sense in a few days time.

PEDIGREE LINES

Remember BLACKBEARD? He was a proper character for Ballydoyle, but he was also very classy.

As a juvenile, he won a Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 race, as well as two Group 1 contests. He now stands at Coolmore for €17,500, and there is a lot of hope ahead of his first offspring hitting the track over the next few years.

It’s fair to say that The Lads love this bloodline, as they secured his full brother CHARLES DARWIN, the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes winner, and now they have bought a full sister to CHARLES DARWIN and BLACKBEARD for 1.9 million guineas.

We haven’t seen CHARLES DARWIN since Royal Ascot, which is sad, and we obviously didn’t get to see BLACKBEARD as a three-year-old, so we do hope that we can see this daughter of MUIRIN consistently as a juvenile, and maybe even as a three-year-old.

So, what do The Lads think of this new purchase? MV Magnier said: “She’s a lovely filly. Blackbeard was a very good racehorse and his yearlings are selling very well, they look very promising. He’s having a good sale here and apparently he has a few good ones coming up in the next couple of weeks. 

“And of course Aidan [O'Brien] thinks a lot of Charles Darwin, he thinks he’s a very good horse. I’m not saying that he’s Albert Einstein, Albert looks like he’s pretty special, and Charles looks like he could be a very good horse too. 

“To be fair to the mare, she always has a good-looker. Blackbeard is a very nice, correct horse who was very fast. Charles looks like he could be the proper job, so let’s hope this filly can do something similar. She’s a very valuable filly. There’s a lot going on on the page too; the mare is in foal to Wootton Bassett.” 

It’s interesting that MV Magnier mentions ALBERT EINSTEIN in such promising light again. Of course, he has been good on the track, but that was before Royal Ascot, and we literally haven’t seen him since May. He is favourite for the Guineas, but any time you even mention his name around Aidan O’Brien or any of The Lads, they seem to get all giddy like school children.

We’d love to join the hype train, but the lack of updates on the horse concerns us. Anyway, Ballydoyle and Coolmore have another BLACKBEARD sibling, and she is set to be good on the track, all being well. It’s great to see.

RISK ON

15.08 REAL AMERICAN

Burke firing and this lad goes okay which might be good enough in this weak race. Bred to love the mud too. Johnston’s the danger. 13/8.

16.55 GENEROUS RASCAL

Bred to be a monster and should be a different proposition now he’s had a run. 4/1 strong win bet.

17.25 LIGHTNING TIGER

Fellowes has finally come into form. We knew he would and this lad is getting gambled so we’re following it. 5/2.

35/1 treble.

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