Equinties - Chelts to Aintree

Gm Equinauts

Yay!

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

EXTRA HALF A MILE

A lot of people were quite surprised when POTTERS CHARM was beaten on Cheltenham Trials Day. Well, everyone apart from trainer Nige who admitted he wasn’t full wound up for it! Currently, we’re not sure he performed to that good a level, even if short of work, but that really should not take away from SIXMILEBRIDGE who deserves plenty of credit.

He forced the pace and set a ‘catch me if you can’ gallop throughout, so when POTTERS CHARM and BILL JOYCE were unable to rise to the challenge, the race was over and done.

Even though he came off the bridle around the bend, and had POTTERS CHARM snapping at his heels, he sustained a fine gallop up the famous hill and was a deserved winner.

Naturally, when winning a race like that, talk goes towards the Cheltenham Festival. Ben Pauling always thought plenty of the horse last year and he’s shown enough over hurdles so far this season for Fergal O’Brien, so he deserves his crack at a Grade 1 novice hurdle.

Which one? Well, O’Brien was fairly tight-lipped about that on Saturday, but he shed more light yesterday.

He said: "We'll leave him in the Supreme but the obvious race for him is the Turners. He went to the festival for the Champion Bumper with Ben Pauling last year but didn't really handle the occasion, but we feel he'll fare much better with it all now.

"We're really looking forward to it now and hope we can get him there in one piece, especially as that festival winner is the one thing we want to get under our belt."

He’s currently 16/1 for the Turners, the same price as POTTERS CHARM, and his chance will depend on which horse emerges as Willie Mullins’ Turners horse from the DRF.
His price is basically a reflection of whether you think Saturday was a fluke or not. If you buy into the narrative that POTTERS CHARM wasn’t himself and the fact BILL JOYCE will need three miles, a case to leave him alone can be made quite readily, but if you were impressed by his performance (how could you not), then he’s a British horse to consider for sure.

CALLED OFF

A few days ago we spoke about IMPAIRE ET PASSE and how we thought he was coming to Sandown thanks to information from Nicky Henderson.
Unfortunately, his passport won’t be needed as the Grade 1 winner will stay at home and take on BALLYBURN instead at the Dublin Racing Festival.

The writing was on the wall throughout yesterday. Just a quick look at the Betfair Exchange market saw his price increase to well over 10.0 and JANGO BAIE’s price cut was cut to 6/4 and 11/8 on the sportsbooks.

And then, confirmation came through from Anthony Bromley, as he said: "We're going to stay in Ireland. We're a bit concerned about the heavy ground that's likely at Sandown and we're hoping Leopardstown won't be as deep."

There are good and bad things to look at from this decision. The horse has won on soft and heavy before, so he would have been fine at Sandown, but they probably didn’t want to bottom him out ahead of Cheltenham or elsewhere. So, while we won’t get to see how an exciting horse like JANGO BAIE shapes up against one of Ireland’s best, the silver lining is that BALLYBURN will have no walkover at the DRF.

Prior to this news, it looked like BALLYBURN would have CHAMP KIELY and BETTER DAYS AHEAD to worry about, but now with IMPAIRE ET PASSE as well, he will have to be good to win. His jumping has been sketchy and we have doubts about his effectiveness over fences, but this will be the litmus test.

If he passes with flying colours, the Brown Advisory suddenly gets a bit easier to work out.

CHELTENHAM TO THE NATIONAL

On November 25th 2024, we said in this Newsletter: “The winner, TRELAWNE, could be a National horse if he keeps a lid on his craziness.”

We’ve also said TRELAWNE’s name in relation to the Grand National on other occasions, and we could be getting our wish as the horse was entered for the Grand National on Tuesday.

“But 90 horses were entered for the Nash on Tuesday; why is this such a big thing!?” - we hear you cry.

Well, Kim Bailey has started mentioning the horse for the big race at Aintree in April, and he is going down a tried and tested route for the yard.

On his blog, Bailey said: “The Randox Grand National entries closed yesterday. Trelawne is our only entry. The plan is that he goes straight to Cheltenham for The Ultima Handicap Chase..then…”

So, TRELAWNE is looking to pick up from where CHIANTI CLASSICO left off in the Ultima, but would he have a chance?

The beauty of the Ultima – and all races after the Grand National weights lunch on February 11th – is that if you win the race, your mark for the National is unblemished. This is what allowed CORACH RAMBLER to win both races off 146 in 2023.

So, for any horse running in the Ultima/Kim Muir/National Hunt Chase, there is no need to worry about them being “off” as they can win and then go to Aintree off the same mark.

TRELAWNE ran in last year’s Ultima off 144 and crashed out at the second fence. Bailey won the race with CHIANTI CLASSICO, who went on to achieve a rating of 157, and the trainer was convinced that these two horses were of equal ability at the time.

This nine-year-old by GEORDIELAND does need softer conditions, but he can handle a mark of 152 and he’s gone well around Cheltenham before (December 2023).
Considering he beat IROKO, Racing X’s National horse, in that Haydock Graduation Chase in November, be sure not to rule out TRELAWNE as we approach the spring festivals.

RISK ON

12.42 ANY COLONY

Time to get his head in front. He had some problems last year and can break his maiden today. 4/1 a small ew as he’s a moderate horse in a seemingly moderate race.

13.12 HEBRIDEAN NOMAD

A small ew here on Balding’s horse - the yard can do no wrong and we think this lad can prove well handicapped in this race, at this trip. 5/1 small ew single and even smaller 24/1 ew double with ANT COLONY.

12.55 BOBBI WITH AN I

This is an incredibly weak mares novice race and the market has sided with Joe Tizzard’s debutant. She is very well bred and wouldn’t need to be the best to win this race. We think 15/8 is fair.

We have also played the 31/1 bumper double below.

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