Equinties - Delta Work

Gm Equinauts

Well, what brilliantly shitty news to receive this morning, and just as were writing what was pretty much a love letter to DELTA WORK in his trainers yard tour piece:

We loved DELTA WORK, he was a proper horse and we were ready to back him to retain his XC title.

Colic is f*cking horrible way to go. For those who don’t know what it is, let’s try and provide some context.

Colic is a really broad term which basically means the horse has stomach-ache generally from a total congestion (impaction) of the digestive system - highly dangerous for an animal that is required to continually graze throughout the day.

There are so many things which can cause colic so saying a horse has ‘died from colic’ doesn't give you much information. It just means that the symptoms were abdominal pain. Colic can be a from hugely wide range of things, like a twisted gut or impaction in the bowls and causes are equally as broad.

It can be an unlucky medical issue, like a twisted gut, or it can have been brought on by poor management (worm burden, a sudden change of food, stress or dehydration). Obviously, it is very unlikely a horse like DELTA WORK is going to have got colic from poor management so it’s more likely to be rotten bad luck, but we are only able to speculate on the cause.

This time of year, and especially with the recent cold weather, a common cause of colic is due to horses not wanting to drink as much as the water is so cold. Water is super important to aid digestion so if they don't drink enough, the fibre doesn't work itself through their intestines as easily and they end up getting an impaction, a blockage in simple terms.

Colic is normally easy to spot as the horse looks like they are in huge discomfort. They will be getting up and down constantly, looking at or kicking at their sides, sweating and just showing obvious signs of distress. It’s vital it’s spotted quickly and the best thing to do is to walk them until the vet arrives.

Most colic requires the horse to move to help alleviate issues, so walking is always your best bet. It doesn't matter what you do, some colics cant be fixed. If initial treatment (injecting the horse equivalent of Buscopan or trying to rehydrate intravenously) doesn’t work, surgery is often needed (at huge cost) and a fair few horses die in the operation. Check this out:

It’s a hard one to know what is the right decision is, if you find yourself there. Often fatal colic occurs when the horse get’s it overnight. When it’s not spotted and treated quickly enough (or the damage they can do to themselves in the stable writhing around in pain in the meantime) is the reason why colic is so often fatal. That's not saying that they are always curable if you catch it straight away!

Colic nearly killed ALTIOR and CONSTITUTION HILL, but did manage to take the life of greats such as ECLIPSE.

A horrible condition nearly all owners, of any breed of horse, will experience at some point

Our thoughts are with the Gordon Elliott team today, who will no doubt be distraught.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

GORDON ELLIOTT YARD TOUR

The header for this section was DELTA WORK ET AL, that was before the sad news came in that he died of colic this morning. A miserable condition and horrid way for a horse to go.

DELTA WORK was absolutely a leading chance for another success at the festival.

Contrary to usual virtual ‘racing playground’ bullies who are so desperate to standout,

we will celebrate DELTA WORK here and indeed, will remember him for years to come.

RIP to the XC champ!

DELTA WORK will be sorely, sorely missed by the Elliott camp and thus drastically reduces their chances of a Festival winner. Let’s look at the chances of success that remain.

Firstly, WODHOOH Martin Pipe backers, look away now.

When talking about the BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD situation, Elliott suggested that the Martin Pipe fancy could step up into the Mares’ Hurdle instead if the Gigginstown-owned Grade 1 winner goes to the Champion Hurdle.

On the situation, he said: “I'd love to win a Champion Hurdle, I've never won it before, and she would be my best chance if we run her in it. She has a lot more pace than Apple's Jade. We'll make a decision on which race she will go for next week. She obviously has the option of the Mares' Hurdle as well. If we do decide to run her in the Champion Hurdle, we could potentially pitch Wodhooh into the Mares' Hurdle instead of her.”

Comments like this make us really think BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is Champion Hurdle-bound.

In fairness to WODHOOH backers, you have to read this positively. If they think she is Mares’ Hurdle quality, a mark in the high 130s could still be reasonable.

What about elsewhere? Last year’s crop of juveniles was probably quite nice, potentially one of the best crops we’ve seen in a while.

MAJBOROUGH, KARGESE, SIR GINO, WODHOOH, and more all look nice, so there’s been some of chat about KALA CONTI for Cheltenham. She’s in the Mares’ Hurdle, but we get the impression she could head elsewhere if a horse like WODHOOH goes to another option.

Elliott said: “She's in the Mares' Hurdle but we've others who could run in that, so she has the option of a few handicaps and maybe the Martin Pipe might suit her. She's held her form together really well for the last few seasons. She's a lovely mare.”

She has an Irish rating or 142. That’s steep enough, especially with the British tax that will be applied.

His Champion Bumper team of JALON D’OUDAIRIES, KALYPSO’CHANCE, and interestingly SPINNINGSYARN. Mullins may have COPACABANA, but Elliott will be right there.

RUNNING DOWN

Credit where credit is due, there was a very interesting Racing TV article from Matt Tombs the other day regarding Cheltenham Festival handicappers.

We’re going to paraphrase the stats and comments, but we think it’s worth highlighting to as many people as possible in order to try and help you with your punting.

Basically, since 2022, horses who have dropped through the handicap from their opening rating at the start of the season have a great record.

This may seem obvious, but with the likes of KOPECK DE MEE, BE AWARE, and WODHOOH prominent in the markets for respective handicaps, this gives scope to take them on.

1 in 3 Cheltenham winners at the last three Festivals won off a lower mark in March compared to their mark at the start of the season, and if you backed all 102 British-trained horses in the handicaps between 2022-2024 to a level stake, you would have made 51pts of profit. Dead level.

That’s pretty remarkable, but it’s understandable when you see some of the prices of the winners.

GLOBAL CITIZEN (-15lbs) won the 2022 Grand Annual at 28/1, FAIVOIR (-9lbs) won the 2023 County Hurdle at 33/1, and THIRD WIND (-12lbs) won the 2022 Pertemps at 25/1. Last year’s successful handicap droppers include the Dan Skelton pair of LANGER DAN (-6lbs) and UNEXPECTED PARTY (-4lbs).

In many cases, horses that you maybe didn’t think had much of a chance have landed a plunge at Cheltenham. It’s jump racing’s Olympics; trainers target these races as it could be a crowing moment in their careers.

Furthermore, it’s not always the trainers you expect. Dan Skelton is a classic example of this.

Everyone remembers last year, so there is decency bias with his handicap contenders. His best chance of a handicap winner this year is arguably BE AWARE, but he doesn’t fit this category as he is an improver who “could” still be well handicapped based on the trainer’s comments.

So, with this in mind, who could be on the agenda?

Matt Tombs actually mentions GINNY’S DESTINY in his article because he is down 6lbs from the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has campaigned him fairly, but yard form, race fitness, and general bad races have got the better of him.

He’s a bit of a windy one to mention, however, as Nicholls is adamant he wants three miles now. Would the boss of Ditcheat take the chance in a 3m2f Ultima as his first extended-distance start? Unsure.

Sticking with big Paul though, SANS BRUIT could work. He started the season on 139 having bolted up at Aintree off 130. Remember that win, it was pretty sexy!

He’s now rated 134 and could be going to the Grand Annual. Interesting.

Nicholls’ runners throughout the week will actually be more interesting than people think. He’s had an awful season, but if the yard come back into form in time, some horses could romp home because they have been treated nicely by the handicapper.
GELINO BELLO, for example, is 4lbs below his rating at the start of the campaign and holds entries for the Ultima/Kim Muir.

Between now and the big event, we will continue to keep our eye’s peeled for the horses who a) are seemingly ‘well in’ and b) actually good enough to win.

14.25 GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL

Punchestown’s rearranged card from the weekend is on today, and the two Graded races have short-priced favs.

So, we’re going to give a few thoughts on the Grand National Trial because it is interesting, and more of a betting contest for those who bet Irish racing.

VELVET ELVIS is the favourite for Gavin Cromwell. He’s fairly untested in handicaps and he hasn’t won in handicap company yet, though he was second in the Thyestes last time out. He’s got a fine chance, but 146 is tough.

Gordon Elliott has a few in here, but FAVORI DE CHANPDOU has to be off 144 with a 7lb claim. He’s a Grade 2 novice chase winner and he’s back right-handed. He has to have a great chance, and the jockey’s claim puts him in good shape.

WHERE IT ALL BEGAN is a strong contender from the Elliott camp as well.

He absolutely bolted up in this last year of 123 and he’s rated just 131 here. He was going well in the Welsh Nash around Christmas before making a big mistake, and Elliott must have been hopeful to send him off at 10/1 in Chepstow. He’s got a strong chance.

ASK ANYTHING is that nice improver for Cromwell and he finished second off 128 in the Ulster National on good ground. He’s run in handicap hurdles recently, but he won a maiden hurdle on heavy and beginners chase on soft, so he should be fine on the ground. He’s interesting at this marathon trip.

There plenty of Gordo-trained horses to work out, but Willie Mullins only has a few, and SPANISH HARLEM has always been a horse held in high regard. He carried 140 in the Scottish Nash when seventh and he has a mark of 136 here. That isn’t too much of a difference to make a huge change, and yet he is the shortest-priced runner from Closutton.

Of the rest, STORMY JUDGE could be interesting. He’s off 125 and his last winning mark was 127. He won on heavy that day, so the soft ground will work, and Harry Sexton takes seven away.

VERDICT: FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU is the class act and he’s fairly treated. Right-handed is key and he has his chance here but as always, we’ll be watching.

RISK ON

No good yesterday, a leveller after a brilliant few days punting. Today is tough and not one to get involved in.

We have a couple of big bets we’ve been waiting for coming up over the next few days. One will be posted early to weekend subscribers.

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