Equinties - Cromwell's campaign

Gm Equinauts

Can anyone else hear the alarm bells ringing?

Dear, oh dear!

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

ALL OUT

Well, our suspicions were proven correct yesterday: GERRI COLOMBE is out for the season.

We’ve had our worries about GERRI COLOMBE all season to be honest. He was bad in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase and Gordon Elliott has held him at home instead of running him. Furthermore, he said that they were heading straight to the Cheltenham Gold Cup with him, and that’s when the alarm bells started to ring properly.

Well, we got confirmation yesterday that he won’t run again this season, but the setback is not a major one. On his blog, Elliott said: “Unfortunately Gerri Colombe has met with a setback which means he will not run again this season. It’s not career ending or especially serious but it’s come at the wrong time of the season so we’re going to have to rule him out of the spring festivals.

“It’s a big blow for ourselves and the Robcour team but we will concentrate on getting him right for next season when hopefully all roads will lead back to the Gold Cup.”

From now, it’s hard to know what they’ll do with him. He’s a nine-year-old, who will be 10 next season, and he’s had setbacks all season. He won’t win a Gold Cup, he probably won’t win an Aintree Bowl, and it would be tough to get a horse back from a setback to win a race like the Ladbrokes Champion Chase first time out.

He probably would have been a perfect horse for the old Cross Country Chase, but now it’s a handicap, it would be tough to get him down in the handicap from his current rating of 170. He’ll be tough to race plan altogether.

Speaking of horses out of Cheltenham, CROKE PARK may miss the Brown Advisory this season. Although he has looked like a nice stayer to our eye this campaign, Elliott told Nick Luck: “Whether I’d go three miles with him I’m not so sure, I think he’s a real two-and-a-half miler – the way he jumps.”

He has got an Irish rating of 154 to be fair to him. Could he run in the new 2m4f novices’ handicap chase off a mark like 157? That wouldn’t be out of the question.

Still, if Elliott is worried that he doesn’t truly see out three miles, would that place a small question mark of concern over BALLYBURN’s form having beaten him over 2m5f on the weekend?

Watching it back, CROKE PARK does slow down a little bit after the last. Yes, tin foil hat theory, but it’s interesting.

DOUBLE HANDED

Gavin Cromwell is some trainer, isn’t he? BACKTONORMAL’s success at the Dublin Racing Festival on Sunday was probably a season-long plan, so he is certainly a brilliant target trainer.

One horse that he has prepped for the Cheltenham Festival already is STUMPTOWN, second in the 2023 Kim Muir.

After that big run, he made it all the way to a mark of 149 which saw him win cosily over the cross country fences at Cheltenham in December, and that switch to the unique obstacles is where he’ll end up in March.

But, could Cromwell have another dart to fire at the race? Well, yes, he will.
VANILLIER, second to CORACH RAMBLER in the 2022 Grand National, won over the banks course at Punchestown yesterday to secure his place at the Festival.

VANILLIER has always been a bit of a ‘plotty’ horse for Cromwell, and as such, he’s fairly lightly travelled for a 10-year-old of his ability. He was given a sighter over Cheltenham’s cross course in December, and he’s now heading back there in March.

Cromwell said: "Obviously he is entered in the Grand National and he has the option of the Cross Country at Cheltenham. I don't know what route we will take at the moment but he is back motoring again.

"I'd just be concerned that he's on a mark that he might not get into the National but what he did today will help.

“You'd imagine that if the handicapper is going to give him a little above his Irish mark, that he'll give him a little more seeing that he's in form and has good Aintree form too."
It looks like another stab at Aintree is the plan, but would you want to back him for the third time? Cheltenham could be a lot easier, and he could win there before maybe going to Aintree as well.

Either way, two horses like VANILLIER and STUMPTOWN give Cromwell a top chance in the cross country. This could be a small changing of the guard this year.

HANDICAP PLOTTING

We often like to fashion a tin foil hat when mulling over racing and we think it’s time to put it on now, as we have a theory.

The Up The Yard Challenge Race at Punchestown is a great initiative. Good horses run in it for good trainers and are ridden by yard staff who get to have their big day in the sun.

Yesterday, Aimee Morrissey rode the Grade 1 winner SIR GERHARD to success and was led back into the winners’ enclosure by Paul Townend (admittedly he looked a banker and we’re annoyed we didn’t bet him).

But, the other beautiful thing about the race for trainers is that they can run top-quality horses in it for fitness without the worry of being touched by the handicapper.

Last year, THE GOFFER led home SAMUI and THE VERY MAN won in 2023 as a prep for the Coral Cup. So, will SIR GERHARD have any big targets down the line? We think so. Because he’s had his fair share of bad performances, he’s been dropped in the handicap to a mark of 144 over hurdles.

This former Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle winner is rated 144 having finished third to IMPAIRE ET PASSE in the Grade 2 Select Hurdle only four starts ago. He was also sent off 9/1 for a Stayers’ Hurdle last season and managed to beat THEDEVILSCOACHMAN at Punchestown in December 2023.

Yes, he’s been poor so far this season, but he can now rock up to something like the Coral Cup at Cheltenham off a workable mark and with the benefit of race fitness. It’s wishful thinking, yes, but he’s 25/1 for the Coral Cup and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him win a nice handicap in the spring over a middle distance, especially if the ground is bad.

Oh, speaking of Cheltenham Festival handicaps, ETHICAL DIAMOND won yesterday for Willie Mullins. Not only was he impressive, but that run was his fifth over hurdles which now means he is qualified for Cheltenham Festival handicaps.

RISK ON

We’re not that strong on anything today, we think NOT SO WOOLLY wins the Taunton opener but is too short now so will just play small stakes on:

15.45 YES DAY

An expensive point winner, he’s either been disappointing or plotted. Given he’s handicapped to go well, we’re taking a chance he’s been plotted and back to 3miles should suit. Let’s hope its a yes(!) day. 4/1 ew.

SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ACCESS OUR PREMIUM CONTENT AND BUMPER COMPETITION.

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!