Equinties - market movements

Gm Equinauts

A tools down day yesterday, the racing today is not much better but we do think there is a little value to be had in one of the racing opening markets.

But if today doesn’t excitedyou, fear not for the good racing is coming, Cheltenham this weekend!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

MCMANUS MARKETS

After bigging up team captain JOBON yesterday, this morning we have a clearer picture of JP McManus’ King George squad now thanks to some comments and market moves

SPILLANE’S TOWER is the one who could be joining CORBETTS CROSS in Kempton if the ground is soft, which leaves FACT TO FILE open to take on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. A rematch over three miles – what a sight.

On the decision, racing manager Frank Berry said: "The thinking is that if the ground is soft Spillane's Tower will go to Kempton. He still has a bit of work to do, but he's in good form. It will be left to the last minute as it's all down to the ground. Kempton can dry out very quickly, so we'll see what the ground looks like it’s going to be and make a late call.

"I would be surprised if Fact To File doesn't stay at home over Christmas and run in the Savills."

This news does allow us to decipher the race a bit easier now. If FACT TO FILE (2/1) is a no-goer, so SPILLANE’S TOWER (with the John Durkan form) is now the new ante-post fav when you take FACT TO FILE out of the equation. We also know GREY DAWNING is going and we’ve had further confirmation about CORBETTS CROSS.

Furthermore, Joseph O’Brien said that BANBRIDGE has been planned for the King George if the ground turns good. He said: “Since Punchestown (in the spring), we’ve been targeting the King George and the plan was that we’d have the two prep runs. We’ve been happy with how both of those races have gone and now, pending conditions at Kempton, he’ll go for the King George. The drier the ground the better for him.”

So, basically, we either get SPILLANE’S TOWER or BANBRIDGE, but probably not both.

PROTEKTORAT, who was disappointing Sunday, was ruled out by Dan Skelton yesterday, and the same ground conditions that will maybe suit BANBRIDGE will also entice HEWICK over. BRAVEMANSGAME and L’HOMME PRESSE are likely to go, though the former looks to be getting handicapped for the National. After worries that the race might not live up to the hype, this looks a fine field.

MET A NICE ONE

Did anyone watch the action at Lingfield yesterday? DIVA LUNA made her first start over hurdles, and plenty were eagerly awaiting this moment. Ben Pauling had been very complimentary of her since that Grade 2 Aintree Bumper success and that was reflected in her 4/11 sp.

Backed like losing was out of the question, she was turned over at heavy odds on which would be a small worry, but the winner – METKAYINA – had race fitness on her side.

A lot of Pauling’s have needed their runs this season. FINE CASTING was an example of this yesterday as he blew up on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock before running a stormer to finish second yesterday.

So, what about this METKAYINA? Well, she was behind DIVA LUNA in that Aintree bumper, but she was second to a subsequent winner IT’S HARD TO KNOW on hurdles debut, so her form really can’t be knocked too much.

She also travelled fairly well through that Aintree race and the contest has already thrown up LA MARQUISE, LISTENTOYOURHEART, and JUBILEE ALPHA. The last two finished 1-3 in a Listed race over hurdles recently, so the form is looking good. This will probably turn into a race to follow going forward.

DIVA LUNA is still worth following!

DECEMBER GOLD CUP

Just 14 runners have been confirmed for the valuable December Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday. With £125,000 guaranteed and £71,188 going to the winner, that is a fairly low level of entries, but some big players are involved. This section will do a little bit of A Look Ahead without a verdict (to wait for going confirmation) with some added quotes as well.

Let’s start with what the ground could be. It’s good to soft, soft in places currently after Storm Darragh, but the week in Gloucestershire is set to be fairly dry. So will we be seeing good ground? Maybe. Which makes picking winners very tough!

Last year’s winner FUGITIF was confirmed, and connections got a good prep into him when finishing fifth in the Paddy Power. He is 1lb below last year’s winning mark despite finishing a seven-length third in the Clarence House Chase after last year’s success. That has to give him a chance.

On his chances, trainer Richard Hobson said: “He was a bit far out of his ground jumping off, he just took a while to get going. I don’t know if he was anticipating his wind, but as soon as he jumped one I realised he was well up for it.

“He missed one jump at a crucial stage and did two really good fractions coming down the hill, which he seems to do all the time.”

“I knew he’d possibly need the run and he did. He ran an absolute stormer considering it was his first run back after a break. He’s been training well, has got 2lb less and I’m looking forward to running him.”

He reappears against IL RIDOTO and just a short head split them last year. FUGITIF gave him 8lbs last year, though only 1lb separates them this year. Nicholls is set to run STAGE STAR though who will likely come on for his Old Roan run and he won the Paddy Power off 155. Can he defy 162?

MADARA shares top of the market with FUGITIF after two runs to blow the cobwebs off. He probably wasn’t trying too hard the last day because Harry Skelton chose PROTEKTORAT over him in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He is probably well-handicapped.

Jamie Snowden is probably quite happy the handicapper only gave GA LAW 1lb for finishing second to IL RIDOTO the last day as he was planning a step into Graded company if he got penalised too much.

Are there any of the rest that are interesting?

If STAGE STAR runs, he could prove one of the class acts. He certainly knows his way around the course.

Else where in the market, PINKERTON won his two handicap chase starts last season, the latest of which came off 138, so his mark of 147 is a step up. However, the horses he was beating were good, notably ZANAHIYR, DUFFLE COAT, LIFE IN THE PARK, CHEMICAL ENERGY, LETS GO CHAMP, HURRICANE GEORGIE, SAINT ROI, SOLNESS, and PATH D’OROUX. That’s a good standard, and he was a fair second to FOUND A FIFTY in a Grade 2 last month. He’d have to be of interest on drying ground.

We will provide a full preview of this big race on Saturday.

RISK ON

13.00 ST LUKES CHELSEA

The market is shouting for MALINKA but she’s a poor fave. The one who could give her a run for her money would be ST LUKES CHELSEA. It’s a poor race so don’t go made by Walford has run the race before. 3/1.

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