Equinties - Challow chat

Gm Equinauts

It seems punters are taking on THE NEW LION because he won the Challow.

That doesn’t make sense to us so we’ve taken a deep diver into the race and why we think it’s indeed a brilliant barometer of British equine performance amidst a period of Irish dominance.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

CHALLOW CHAT

There have been a few punters openly crabbing THE NEW LION’s chances for the Turner’s based on the Challow’s historical performance at producing winners in Cheltenham’s Grade 1 2M 5F event - which is zero!

But a more open-minded, deeper dive into Challow winners’ results at Cheltenham might suggest it’s a bit of a lazy argument, especially when you consider how the racing landscape has changed so dramatically in recent years.

Ireland has had a dominant stranglehold over Cheltenham in recent years: in the last 24 years, Ireland have just over double the winning tally of Britain, namely down to one man - Willie the Wizard.

But it hasn’t always been like that, in the decade before, it was Britain who dominated, with Ireland picking up only 20% of the pots they do now.

Anyway, back to the Challow. Punters are looking at the bare facts - the majority of Challow winners simply don’t go on to win a novice hurdle event at Cheltenham. The last winner of the race to go and win at the Festival was WICHITA LINEMAN in 2006-07 when he did the Challow-Bartlett double.

For all the dominance of the Irish, we think it’s always been bloody good marker for the best British novices who often go on to do exceptionally well at Cheltenham in novice hurdles, even if they aren’t bagging the W.

Let’s check what the recent contenders have done…

Last seasons Challow third THE JUKEBOX MAN was second in the Albert Bartlett last year; 2020 Challow winner BRAVEMANSGAME placed in the old Ballymore over 2M 5F (the new Turners); ‘19 Challow winner THYME HILL was the first British horse to the finish line of the Albert Bartlett that year, placing 4th, 2 lengths off the win and ‘18 Challow winner CHAMP finished first of the British horses in the old Ballymore when second to CITY ISLAND.

More, Challow winners tend to do better over fences, STAGE STAR being a recent case in point.

Back to punting this season.

The Irish dominance at the Festival mean punters are crabbing recent Challow winner THE NEW LION - they seem to be sticking their money on Willie Mullins’ FINAL DEMAND.

Each race in each year is unique and should be treated as such. Amidst the cyclical nature of racing we have different jockeys, different ground, different breakfast the jockey’s had and different arguments they have with their wives that morning.

Let’s not forget the ‘17 renewal of Cheltenham’s 2M 5F event when there wasn’t even an Irish horse in the top 3 - a complete anomaly in the recent years of Irish dominance!

In what’s been a really long winded argument, we don’t think a poor Challow to Cheltenham conversion stat is one to back up a bet on.

The correlation does not imply causation here. The Irish have simply been winning the lot!

The race may not have landed a Cheltenham win in recent years, but if THE NEW LION has a mountain of ability, should a stat stop him?

Absolutely not.

Let’s use CONSTITUTION HILL winning the old Tolworth in the same facile manner as an example. Now, we’re not trying to compare him with THE NEW LION, but did that stop CONSTITUTION HILL? Objectively, at the same stage of their respective careers, they are two horses who won slightly questionable Grade 1 races easily on bad ground.

Anyway, we’re getting side-tracked. The ‘questionable’ Challow that THE NEW LION won got a boost yesterday as WENDIGO won easily at Wetherby.

Yes, he was 1/11 and yes, he warranted his manner of victory, but still, it’s a nice nod to the Challow.

He’s heading to the Cheltenham Festival, but he won’t take on THE NEW LION, instead, it’s the Albert Bartlett for him, as Jamie Snowden said: "We were on a bit of a hiding to nothing at that kind of price in that sort of race, but it was nice to get a confidence-boosting run into him. He’s going to improve by going up to three miles and hopefully we’ll head to Cheltenham with half a chance."

Does he have “half a chance”? Well, yes, and maybe a bit more. FINAL DEMAND isn’t going, JASMIN DE VAUX has taken some hits this season, WINGMEN needs to improve 10lbs for the step up in trip, DERRYHASSEN PADDY probably won’t go, and who knows how good BALLYBOW is. THE BIG WESTERNER and THE YELLOW CLAY set the standard, and a few big-priced runners like INTENSE APPROACH and FISHERY LANE could have their say, but WENDIGO has the form and the ability. He’s a rock-solid contender.

In summary, don’t bet stats, bet the horse.

LIVE CONTENDER?

Speaking of nice Wetherby performances, LIVE CONTI, an unbeaten son of COKORIKO, won on his yard debut.

He has big connections. Trained by Dan Skelton, ridden by Harry Skelton, and owned by Ged Mason, the late John Hales, Sir Alex Ferguson, and Paul Hogarth. But, until yesterday, he was kept off the track even though he is a potential Triumph Hurdle horse.
Well, he’s a fairly well-built horse, and the Skeltons are keen not to do too much with him too soon in order to not ruin him. Fair enough.

So, yesterday was his British debut, and he put in a good effort, but the race probably wasn’t worth too much. Two 50/1 shots finished in the front four and SCOTLAND THE BRAVE, the runner-up, had been smashed on his first two starts over hurdles.
In fairness to the horse, the form of yesterday’s run won’t define him. It was all about education. The form of his French win in October for Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm is the one to focus on as the second, LARZAC, has been bought by JP McManus for Willie Mullins, the third, CROWN DU BERLAIS, has won since, and so has the fourth, SIX FIGURES.

On the run, Harry Skelton said: "We got him in November and I'm glad we didn't run him earlier as he's really improved in the last month and keeps thriving. We had to run at some point and this wasn't a deep race, so you'd hope he wins like he has.

"The form of his Auteuil race is very good and we'll decide whether we go to Cheltenham or wait for Aintree, but he's a horse who is further down the line as he's already quite furnished and strong. It could be one or the other he goes to."

Would we be in a rush to back him for Cheltenham? Not quite. The slightly rushed angle of running here before the spring festivals would put us off, and running at Cheltenham on your second start in the UK can be daunting.

Nice horse, but we’d need to see a bit more.

WALSH’S WORDS

Cheltenham preview season has started. Yay.

We are joking, of course, but last night there was a preview night at Dunkertons in Cheltenham, and the panel had Ruby Walsh and Harry Cobden.
Did we learn anything? Well, we potentially learnt a few things, but as is with any preview night, these words aren’t gospel.

Let’s start with Cobden. He’s on fewer previews than Ruby, so maybe his words carry a bit more weight?

Paul Nicholls is likely to have a smaller-than-usual team at the Festival this year, but a few of his horses are of note and it’s JUBILEE ALPHA who got the Cobden seal of approval. He said: “Jubilee Alpha will probably be my best ride of the week. She’ll be the only one from the yard that goes to the race.”

That’s now Cobden and the man himself Nicholls who have given a big nod of confidence to JUBILEE ALPHA but of course, they’re always going to pick their own side. How many times have we heard a trainer say, ‘I wouldn’t swap him/her for anything’.

Right, what did Ruby say? Well, he thought BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD would beat CONSTITUTION HILL in the Champion Hurdle even though he said something different the other week. Cool.

But, it’s the Willie Mullins information that comes out of his mouth which is more useful, and he was quite sweet on KOPEK DES BORDES in the Supreme over SALVATOR MUNDI.

It also looks like Ruby is buying into the FACT TO FILE Ryanair plan. There was no mention of GAELIC WARRIOR, and that would maybe be a small worry for any of his fans.

But finally, he highlighted his bet of the week. Was it GALOPIN? No. KOPEK DES BORDES? No. JONBON? No. MAJBOROUGH? No.

Instead, COPACABANA in the Champion Bumper who, to our surprise, is the current 6/1 favourite. Madness.

Anyway, get ready for the true whirlwind of preview evenings starting up. God help us!

RISK ON

Any bets will be posted to X @equinties.

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